For the past few months the mostly hopelessly socialist heathen who come here to admire the colour scheme have been involved in the selection of best state premiers of the last 40 years. This month saw the runoff stage for those states that were not resolved in round 1 by absolute majority, and also the start of the consolation prize round for Coalition premiers.
We are not yet ready to proceed to the grand final stage because some young chap called Andrews was involved in a real election and I feared this could contaminate the vote. The Victorian runoff will be in February to get a little distance from this result and meanwhile we can continue eliminating Coalition premiers.
Friday, November 30, 2018
Sunday, November 25, 2018
2018 Victorian Postcount: Other Indie Challenges (Pascoe Vale, South-West Coast etc)
On this page - Pascoe Vale, South-West Coast, Geelong, Ovens Valley, Werribee, Mildura
Link to state tally and main postcount thread
Link to upper house coverage
I've already posted threads on the interesting post-counts in Morwell, Benambra and Melton. There are more seats I could post threads of their own on but I shouldn't put too many on the front page! This seat covers all remaining seats I am aware of where there are interesting issues involving independent candidates creating problems for either major party. Often in election leadups this is spoken about as a factor but then most of the indie challenges fizzle. In this case the Coalition's performance has been so bad that it has opened many doors to independents to either beat the Coalition on Labor preferences or beat Labor on Coalition preferences. Suzanna Sheed has easily retained, Ali Cupper appears to have won Mildura (see below), Russell Northe is in a fairly good looking position in Morwell, and there are a bunch of others who either can't be written off, or who can be written off but have come close. Here we go then. All seats will be updated from time to time unless I have already called them.
Link to state tally and main postcount thread
Link to upper house coverage
I've already posted threads on the interesting post-counts in Morwell, Benambra and Melton. There are more seats I could post threads of their own on but I shouldn't put too many on the front page! This seat covers all remaining seats I am aware of where there are interesting issues involving independent candidates creating problems for either major party. Often in election leadups this is spoken about as a factor but then most of the indie challenges fizzle. In this case the Coalition's performance has been so bad that it has opened many doors to independents to either beat the Coalition on Labor preferences or beat Labor on Coalition preferences. Suzanna Sheed has easily retained, Ali Cupper appears to have won Mildura (see below), Russell Northe is in a fairly good looking position in Morwell, and there are a bunch of others who either can't be written off, or who can be written off but have come close. Here we go then. All seats will be updated from time to time unless I have already called them.
2018 Victorian Lower House Postcount: Melton
Melton (Labor vs probably Birchall (IND), 2014 ALP vs Lib (11.2))
2014-elected ALP member Don Nardella quit party, sat as independent and did not recontest
Assessment: It's complicated [update: fairly close to an upset but Labor has won.]
(Link to main postcount page and state summary)
Melton? What is this?
The Daniel Andrews Labor government has crushed the Coalition opposition in the state election, but it's had a bit of bother in a few seats from independents, and these create the only real threat to its 2014 seat collection apart from the fairly likely and widely expected loss of Brunswick to the Greens.
One that sticks out like a sore thumb on the 2PP swingometer is Melton, the former home of Deputy Speaker Don Nardella, who resigned from the party and declined to recontest his seat after being caught up in an expenses claim scandal. In an election where the swings are a sea of red everywhere except a few safe rural Nationals seats, Melton has produced a 2PP swing to the Liberals of 7.2%. Currently, the Liberals are getting 58% of all preferences in a safe Labor seat where last time they got 42.4%. There is the in-theory prospect of a bizarre boilover in this seat, and while someone out there might have information to prove it won't happen, I don't. Even if it doesn't happen, it is worth keeping an eye on in case such a contest happens again in the future.
2014-elected ALP member Don Nardella quit party, sat as independent and did not recontest
Assessment: It's complicated [update: fairly close to an upset but Labor has won.]
(Link to main postcount page and state summary)
Melton? What is this?
The Daniel Andrews Labor government has crushed the Coalition opposition in the state election, but it's had a bit of bother in a few seats from independents, and these create the only real threat to its 2014 seat collection apart from the fairly likely and widely expected loss of Brunswick to the Greens.
One that sticks out like a sore thumb on the 2PP swingometer is Melton, the former home of Deputy Speaker Don Nardella, who resigned from the party and declined to recontest his seat after being caught up in an expenses claim scandal. In an election where the swings are a sea of red everywhere except a few safe rural Nationals seats, Melton has produced a 2PP swing to the Liberals of 7.2%. Currently, the Liberals are getting 58% of all preferences in a safe Labor seat where last time they got 42.4%. There is the in-theory prospect of a bizarre boilover in this seat, and while someone out there might have information to prove it won't happen, I don't. Even if it doesn't happen, it is worth keeping an eye on in case such a contest happens again in the future.
2018 Victorian Lower House Postcount: Benambra
Benambra (Lib vs probably Hawkins (IND), 2014 Nat vs ALP (9.7%)
Current 2PP Lib vs ALP figure is irrelevant
Assessment: Probable Liberal retain (update: retained)
(Link to state tally and main postcount page)
The seat of Benambra has been held by conservatives for 141 years but is under siege from independents inspired by the Cathy McGowan victory in Indi. Bill Tilley's primary has fallen well below 50% leaving him in the danger zone. Here are the current primaries:
Tilley (Lib) 40.29%
Tait (ALP) 17.61
Hawkins (IND) 16.77
O'Connor (IND) 12.91
Knight (Shooters) 8.97
Bardsley (Green) 3.44
Jacqui Hawkins is a McGowan staffer and Jenny O'Connor is a local mayor who was a Greens candidate for the federal seat of Indi.
The Green how-to-vote card preferences O'Connor then Hawkins. The Shooters registered two cards, one of which preferences Tilley then Tait and the other preferences Tait then Tilley. O'Connor registered an open preference card (as did Hawkins.) Labor's card preferenced O'Connor then Hawkins with Tilley last.
Current 2PP Lib vs ALP figure is irrelevant
Assessment: Probable Liberal retain (update: retained)
(Link to state tally and main postcount page)
The seat of Benambra has been held by conservatives for 141 years but is under siege from independents inspired by the Cathy McGowan victory in Indi. Bill Tilley's primary has fallen well below 50% leaving him in the danger zone. Here are the current primaries:
Tilley (Lib) 40.29%
Tait (ALP) 17.61
Hawkins (IND) 16.77
O'Connor (IND) 12.91
Knight (Shooters) 8.97
Bardsley (Green) 3.44
Jacqui Hawkins is a McGowan staffer and Jenny O'Connor is a local mayor who was a Greens candidate for the federal seat of Indi.
The Green how-to-vote card preferences O'Connor then Hawkins. The Shooters registered two cards, one of which preferences Tilley then Tait and the other preferences Tait then Tilley. O'Connor registered an open preference card (as did Hawkins.) Labor's card preferenced O'Connor then Hawkins with Tilley last.
2018 Victorian Lower House Postcount: Morwell
Morwell (IND vs ALP, Ind Held, 2014 Nat vs ALP 1.8%)
Nat vs ALP two-party figure is irrelevant
Assessment: Northe (IND) wins subject to being 2nd after preferences which is overwhelmingly likely
(update: confirmed, Northe has won)
Russell Northe held the seat narrowly in 2014 despite a monster swing to Labor. He has been a very much embattled incumbent (including in the final days of the campaign when there was more adverse media coverage of debt issues) but also one who has received plenty of sympathy for his struggles with the unusual pressures of political life in this seat. He's polled a primary of around 20%, which normally wouldn't be enough, but he may have been saved by the collapse in the Coalition vote. Here's how the primaries currently line up:
Nat vs ALP two-party figure is irrelevant
Assessment: Northe (IND) wins subject to being 2nd after preferences which is overwhelmingly likely
(update: confirmed, Northe has won)
(Link to main postcount thread and tally)
This is the first of my indie-seat postcounts. The 2018 Victorian state election has thrown up a very large number of seats where independents have some sort of chance in the postcount and are likely to finish in the top two. The count in Morwell may be more straightforward than in Melton and Benambra but it is nonetheless still messy. Perhaps not as messy, however, as many thought it might be.Russell Northe held the seat narrowly in 2014 despite a monster swing to Labor. He has been a very much embattled incumbent (including in the final days of the campaign when there was more adverse media coverage of debt issues) but also one who has received plenty of sympathy for his struggles with the unusual pressures of political life in this seat. He's polled a primary of around 20%, which normally wouldn't be enough, but he may have been saved by the collapse in the Coalition vote. Here's how the primaries currently line up:
2018 Victorian Postcount: Greens Vs Labor (Prahran, Brunswick, Melbourne)
Link to main postcount thread including state summary
This thread covers late counting in seats being contested between the Greens and Labor. The Greens went into the election holding Melbourne, Northcote (which they won from Labor in a mid-term by-election) and Prahran (which they won in a ridiculously close three-cornered contest in 2014) and hoped to pick up Brunswick (ALP vacancy) and Richmond (where there is perennial opposition to their candidate Kathleen Maltzahn from sections of the left on account of her support for the Nordic model of criminalising paying for sex).
The Liberals tried to stoke the pot in Richmond by not running a candidate at all, the strategic point of which remains elusive. Former Prime Minister Paul Keating waded in by accusing the Liberals of piking on the contest to try to dislodge Planning Minister Richard Wynne in order to assist Liberal-linked property developers, while Maltzahn issues were another distraction for the Greens in a campaign full of them. In the end Wynne has won Richmond with a commanding swing in his favour, and Labor has also comfortably recaptured Northcote.
This thread covers late counting in seats being contested between the Greens and Labor. The Greens went into the election holding Melbourne, Northcote (which they won from Labor in a mid-term by-election) and Prahran (which they won in a ridiculously close three-cornered contest in 2014) and hoped to pick up Brunswick (ALP vacancy) and Richmond (where there is perennial opposition to their candidate Kathleen Maltzahn from sections of the left on account of her support for the Nordic model of criminalising paying for sex).
The Liberals tried to stoke the pot in Richmond by not running a candidate at all, the strategic point of which remains elusive. Former Prime Minister Paul Keating waded in by accusing the Liberals of piking on the contest to try to dislodge Planning Minister Richard Wynne in order to assist Liberal-linked property developers, while Maltzahn issues were another distraction for the Greens in a campaign full of them. In the end Wynne has won Richmond with a commanding swing in his favour, and Labor has also comfortably recaptured Northcote.
2018 Victorian Lower House Postcount: Summary And Classic Seats
STATE LOWER HOUSE SUMMARY
SEATS WON:
Labor 55, Coalition 27, Green 3, IND 3
Seats covered on this page:
Bayswater
Ripon
Hawthorn
Nepean
Caulfield
Links to other postcount threads (links to be added as completed):
Green vs Labor (Brunswick, Prahran)
Morwell
Benambra
Melton
Other indie challenges (Pascoe Vale, Mildura, South-West Coast, Geelong, Ovens Valley, Werribee)
Link to Upper House coverage
SEATS WON:
Labor 55, Coalition 27, Green 3, IND 3
Seats covered on this page:
Bayswater
Ripon
Hawthorn
Nepean
Caulfield
Links to other postcount threads (links to be added as completed):
Green vs Labor (Brunswick, Prahran)
Morwell
Benambra
Melton
Other indie challenges (Pascoe Vale, Mildura, South-West Coast, Geelong, Ovens Valley, Werribee)
Link to Upper House coverage
Victorian Upper House Live
Go to new button press thread for final results and discussion.
Button presses to occur on Tuesday at 10-minute intervals commencing 2:10 pm. Very close results (if any) could still be subject to recount beyond that. ABC Calculator seat "results" (actually output of a flawed but useful model) are not final and some are not likely to be correct.
Warning: The North Metro count section has been rated Wonk Factor 5/5. Some of the rest aren't too far behind.
Button presses to occur on Tuesday at 10-minute intervals commencing 2:10 pm. Very close results (if any) could still be subject to recount beyond that. ABC Calculator seat "results" (actually output of a flawed but useful model) are not final and some are not likely to be correct.
Warning: The North Metro count section has been rated Wonk Factor 5/5. Some of the rest aren't too far behind.
Saturday, November 24, 2018
Victoria 2018 Live
The starting line: Labor 46 Coalition 37 Green 3 Ind 2 (Melton treated as Labor)
Polls have closed
Seats apparently won (some at low levels of doubt) ALP 51 Coalition 24 Green 1 Ind 2
10 seats currently in significant doubt (that I know of)
Apparent Labor gains from Coalition (some still in some doubt): Bass, Mt Waverley, Ringwood, South Barwon, Burwood, Nepean, Box Hill
Coalition seats in doubt: Bayswater, Ripon, Hawthorn
Apparent ALP gain from Greens: Northcote
Apparent IND gain from Nat: Mildura
In doubt Coalition held vs Ind: Benambra, South-West Coast (likely hold but exclusion order issue)
In doubt IND held vs ALP: Morwell (Ind favoured)
In doubt ALP vs Ind: Melton
In some doubt ALP held vs Ind: Pascoe Vale (probable ALP hold)
In doubt Green held vs ALP: Prahran (ALP ahead)
In doubt ALP held vs Green: Brunswick
Polls have closed
Seats apparently won (some at low levels of doubt) ALP 51 Coalition 24 Green 1 Ind 2
10 seats currently in significant doubt (that I know of)
Apparent Labor gains from Coalition (some still in some doubt): Bass, Mt Waverley, Ringwood, South Barwon, Burwood, Nepean, Box Hill
Coalition seats in doubt: Bayswater, Ripon, Hawthorn
Apparent ALP gain from Greens: Northcote
Apparent IND gain from Nat: Mildura
In doubt Coalition held vs Ind: Benambra, South-West Coast (likely hold but exclusion order issue)
In doubt IND held vs ALP: Morwell (Ind favoured)
In doubt ALP vs Ind: Melton
In some doubt ALP held vs Ind: Pascoe Vale (probable ALP hold)
In doubt Green held vs ALP: Prahran (ALP ahead)
In doubt ALP held vs Green: Brunswick
Friday, November 23, 2018
2018 Victorian Final Polls
Galaxy 53-47 to Labor, ReachTEL 54-46 to Labor
Current primary vote aggregate ALP 40.7 L-NP 39.4 Green 11.0 Other 8.9
Polls could be underestimating Labor 2PP vote slightly and may be overstating Greens primary
Seat projection estimate ALP 48 L-NP 36 Green 3 IND 1
This post will update all polling news in the final 24 hours of the Victorian campaign.
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
A Token Post About Modelling The 2018 Victorian Lower House
VICTORIA (ALP 45 COALITION 38 IND 3 GREEN 2)
Seat modelling on assumed 2PP of 53.4 to Labor currently gives estimate around ALP 47 Green 3-4 LNP 36 IND 1-2
On current numbers Labor are very likely to win, but at some risk of doing so in minority
On current numbers Labor are very likely to win, but at some risk of doing so in minority
Contest badly lacks sufficient recent polling data so any modelling is unreliable
Saturday, November 17, 2018
Site colour change
From time to time I change the colour of this site, often partly or entirely for some reason connected with its content. Examples of past colours adopted have been:
* a shade of dark blue which was the subject of a ludicrous cease-and-desist letter from the Tasmanian Liberal director asking that an "independent liberal" candidate cease using the colour "Liberal Blue"
* Orange, partly in amazement at Cathy McGowan's team finding 1000 votes under the proverbial table during the 2013 Indi count.
* Purple, signifying neutrality between the major parties
* The colour of Senate ballot papers, moving to a purely psephological colour as an expression of disgust with the federal parliament over anti-free speech provisions in the rushed-through same-sex marriage plebiscite safeguards bill.
* Burnt orange, flying SA-BEST colours in protest against SA Labor and Liberal parties preferencing the Australian Conservatives.
The new colours (though I'm fiddling with the combination to try not to make it too hard on the eyes) are another protest, concerning the behaviour of nearly every party in or leading up to the current Victorian Legislative Council election.
The new colours (though I'm fiddling with the combination to try not to make it too hard on the eyes) are another protest, concerning the behaviour of nearly every party in or leading up to the current Victorian Legislative Council election.
Friday, November 16, 2018
Wentworthless: Another Epic Seat Poll Fail
The failures of seat polling have been a common subject on this site this year. See Is Seat Polling Utterly Useless?, Why Is Seat Polling So Inaccurate and How Did The Super Saturday Seat Polls Go?
The recent Wentworth by-election was difficult to poll because of a late strategic-voting swing of probably a few to several points from Labor to the winner Kerryn Phelps. All seven polls that polled a Liberal vs Phelps two-candidate preferred vote did actually get the right winner. But that is all the good news that there is. In so many other respects, the seat polls for the historic Wentworth by-election, perhaps the most polled seat in Australian history, were way wrong. And like other recent seat poll failures in such seats as Bass, Macarthur, Dobell, Lindsay and Longman, the failures were characterised not just by the polls being very wrong, but also by them tending to be wrong in the same direction. The problems go beyond small sample size, and beyond even the tendency of seat polls to be less accurate than their sample sizes say they should be. They point to systematic errors not random ones, and in this case, I suspect, to the oversampling of the politically engaged.
The recent Wentworth by-election was difficult to poll because of a late strategic-voting swing of probably a few to several points from Labor to the winner Kerryn Phelps. All seven polls that polled a Liberal vs Phelps two-candidate preferred vote did actually get the right winner. But that is all the good news that there is. In so many other respects, the seat polls for the historic Wentworth by-election, perhaps the most polled seat in Australian history, were way wrong. And like other recent seat poll failures in such seats as Bass, Macarthur, Dobell, Lindsay and Longman, the failures were characterised not just by the polls being very wrong, but also by them tending to be wrong in the same direction. The problems go beyond small sample size, and beyond even the tendency of seat polls to be less accurate than their sample sizes say they should be. They point to systematic errors not random ones, and in this case, I suspect, to the oversampling of the politically engaged.
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Fear And Loathing With Victorian Upper House Preference Flows
Following the launch of Antony Green's Legislative Council calculator I've been playing around with some possible scenarios for the Victorian upper house group ticket flows. Quite a few people are doing this and so there are a number of different estimates about what might happen out there. What we know from the past is to expect the unexpected - we can say that it looks like preference harvesters will win several undeserved seats, but it's hard to say which ones they will be and who. The whole exercise is incredibly sensitive to starting assumptions - one micro-party you've never heard of might get 1% instead of 0.5% and suddenly something completely different happens. Snowballs from very low vote shares have a higher chance of crashing because of below-the-line votes, especially as voters for micro-parties, with the exception of the Liberal Democrats, are more likely to vote below the line. In 2014 the BTL rate for most micros was in the range 8-22%.
At the last Victorian election, five candidates won seats as a result of preference-harvesting:
* In Eastern Victoria, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (2.44%) beat ALP-2 (8.68% over quota) and Green (8.23%)
* In Northern Metro, the Sex Party (2.87%) beat Labor-3 (7.06% over quota)
* In Northern Victoria, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (3.5%) beat L-NP-3 (7.84% over quota) and Greens (7.68%)
* In Western Metro, Democratic Labour Party (2.57%) beat ALP-3 (10.65% over quota) and L-NP-2 (6.90% over quota)
* In Western Victoria, Vote 1 Local Jobs (1.28%) beat Greens (9.19%)
At the last Victorian election, five candidates won seats as a result of preference-harvesting:
* In Eastern Victoria, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (2.44%) beat ALP-2 (8.68% over quota) and Green (8.23%)
* In Northern Metro, the Sex Party (2.87%) beat Labor-3 (7.06% over quota)
* In Northern Victoria, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (3.5%) beat L-NP-3 (7.84% over quota) and Greens (7.68%)
* In Western Metro, Democratic Labour Party (2.57%) beat ALP-3 (10.65% over quota) and L-NP-2 (6.90% over quota)
* In Western Victoria, Vote 1 Local Jobs (1.28%) beat Greens (9.19%)
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Poll Roundup: Well That Wasn't Much Of A Honeymoon
2PP Aggregate: 54.8 to Labor (+0.8 since last week) by 2016 preferences
54.2 to Labor with One Nation adjustment
Labor would win election "held now" with a very large majority
It's been a while since my last federal poll roundup. At that time the Coalition's polling was recovering from the shock caused by the messy and (to the public) inexplicable coup that deposed Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister, and it was too soon to read anything into what we were seeing. Because the Coalition's polling was in recovery mode but the new Prime Minister was still in a polling honeymoon period it was a matter of waiting for things to settle down to get a feeling for how competitive the Coalition really was.
On my aggregate, the recovery from a post-coup low of 43.9% peaked at 46.7% after seven weeks, and since then things have been getting worse rather than better. Furthermore, since the defeat in Wentworth, they have been getting worse faster, at least if this week's shocker Newspoll is anything to go by. The Coalition's current position is worse than at any time with Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister, and also worse than all but the worst few weeks under Tony Abbott.
54.2 to Labor with One Nation adjustment
Labor would win election "held now" with a very large majority
It's been a while since my last federal poll roundup. At that time the Coalition's polling was recovering from the shock caused by the messy and (to the public) inexplicable coup that deposed Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister, and it was too soon to read anything into what we were seeing. Because the Coalition's polling was in recovery mode but the new Prime Minister was still in a polling honeymoon period it was a matter of waiting for things to settle down to get a feeling for how competitive the Coalition really was.
On my aggregate, the recovery from a post-coup low of 43.9% peaked at 46.7% after seven weeks, and since then things have been getting worse rather than better. Furthermore, since the defeat in Wentworth, they have been getting worse faster, at least if this week's shocker Newspoll is anything to go by. The Coalition's current position is worse than at any time with Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister, and also worse than all but the worst few weeks under Tony Abbott.