2018 Tasmania Postcount: Braddon

Braddon 3 Liberal 2 Labor
Re-elected: Rockliff (Lib), Brooks (Lib), Broad (ALP) 
New MP: Dow (ALP)
Within Party Contest: Jaensch (Lib) vs Rylah (Lib) - CALLED Jaensch will win 
(Update: Jaensch has won)

Welcome to my second postcount thread and this one will be very short, at least until the updates start!  In Braddon, there has been a 2.5% swing against the Liberals coming off their four-seat result in 2014.  The Liberals have 3.38 quotas, Labor have 1.64 quotas and the rest is scattered among the Lambie Network, the Greens, the Shooters and ungrouped, none of whom can win.  Among the allsorts a hugely impressive performance is the 1912 votes polled by independent fisherman Craig Garland.  Garland has almost single-handedly outpolled the Greens, who have polled a miserable 3.3%, with Scott Jordan a poor choice of lead candidate.  Another fizzer was former MP Brenton Best, who didn't seem to run any campaign to speak of and has recorded an embarrassing 568 votes so far.



Labor's vote has ended up concentrated in and neatly split between Broad and Dow, meaning that even should Labor slip a bit in late counting they will win two seats (Greens and possibly Garland preferences would assist them here if there was actually any doubt.)

The only thing to see here is the contest between Roger Jaensch and Joan Rylah for the final seat.  Currently, Jaensch leads by 701.  In 2014, Jaensch led Rylah on primaries by 376, which he held through the count and gradually stretched to 860 by the end of counting.  He will be hoping for something similar this time.  I don't see any reason why Rylah would beat Jaensch this time around but the margin is close enough that we should keep an eye on it and in particular on the surplus of Rockliff (who has 5575 votes spare at the moment, though much of this will put Brooks over the line and generate a further surplus.)

Update Wednesday: In the latest figures Jaensch has increased his lead to 723.  Nothing to see here.  Have to wait for the throw of the Rockliff and then the Brooks surplus, and if Jaensch is further ahead after that then that will be the end of it.

Update Friday: 290 votes were added with Jaensch increasing his lead by three votes to 726.  The most interesting addition today is the booth by booth results because we can see where Craig Garland got his votes!  Garland's vote was amazingly concentrated, polling well below 1% in the Devonport booths but massive votes in the far north-west, including being the most popular candidate at Moorleah (22%) and Sisters Beach (20%), and making double figures at a total of nine booths.  Also of note is that the Greens have struggled even more than last time in forestry booths, with votes as low as 1.2% in Smithton, 0.8% in Forest and 0.3% (1 vote, down from 5) at Irishtown.  However they've been saved from going into negative vote totals at Togari (where they scored zero in 2014) because that booth has been abolished.

Tuesday morning update: Just 71 votes added for final primaries but Jaensch managed to extend his lead by nine on these, to 735. Today's order of business will be the Rockliff surplus then the Brooks surplus, and then it is all just exclusions from the bottom up.  After the surpluses, the most crucial exclusions for the Jaensch-Rylah contest (in rough order of importance) are Ellis, the final JLN, Garland, the final SF+F and Jordan.

Tuesday lunch: The surpluses are gone and Jaensch edged ever further ahead; he now leads Rylah by 777. I'm not going to call this yet but I think that Jaensch will win.

2 pm: Working through the minor exclusions and for the first time so far Rylah has made a small gain from somewhere, she now trails by 765.

Wednesday

10:30: The current gap is 750.  Not far away from the exclusion of the final Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate, at which point votes leaving the SF+F ticket will be available to Jaensch and Rylah.  That might make a slight difference.

10:40:  Rylah is slowly gaining; the gap is now 736.  The preferences of ticketmate Felix Ellis are probably going to decide all this when we get to him.

12:56: The final Shooters exclusion did nothing and the gap is 739.  ALP candidate Wayne Roberts is next to go and after that will be Jordan, very few of whose preferences one would expect to go directly to Labor.  How many go to Craig Garland rather than Labor will be interesting.

2:00: To the scarcely contained delerium of the entire Tasmanian right, Scott Jordan (Green) has been excluded in 12th place with 3.47% after preferences - the sort of result that would be considered lukewarm for the party if recorded in far northern Queensland.

3:05: Jordan is finished and it's the end of the road for Garland now as well.  Jaensch has increased his lead slightly, to 764.

5:06: Jaensch did well out of Garland and has stretched his lead to a new high of 845 votes.  Now we have the exclusion of Danielle Kidd (which won't make much difference) and then the Ellis throw will be Rylah's last realistic chance.  (There will still be Themba Bulle after that, but not very much will leak there, and there will be the Lambie Network votes but a high proportion of those will exhaust.  Maybe the JLN voters would prefer Rylah to Jaensch so she might be able to close down a few hundred there?)

5:41: Final for night, should knock this on the head by early afternoon tomorrow.

Thursday

10:58: Jaensch gained on the Ellis preferences and is 1190 ahead.  There are still the Bulle preferences (nearly all of which will stay in the Labor ticket) and the Timms (JLN) preferences to come.  Possibly the Bulle preferences will put Anita Dow over with a small surplus.  Most of the JLN preferences will exhaust and some will go to Labor so there is no way Rylah can catch up 1190 as it would require close to a 100% split of what's left.

1:00: Bulle exclusion done and Jaensch leads by 1212.  Timms will probably put Dow over quota while the rest may well not get there.

2:30: Dow is over quota after the Timms votes but it is now mathematically certain Jaensch has won.

3:10: All over. Jaensch wins by 1223.