2025 Tasmanian Postcount: Bass

ALL NUMBERS HERE ARE UNOFFICIAL - CHECK THE TEC PAGE FOR OFFICIAL NUMBERS

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BASS (2024 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 JLN)

(At Election 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 IND)

SEATS WON 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 IND

SEAT PARTY CONTEST: George Razay defeated Labor

SEAT WINNERS: Bridget Archer (Lib), Michael Ferguson (Lib), Rob Fairs (Lib), Janie Finlay (ALP), Cecily Rosol (GRN), George Razay (IND)

WITHIN-PARTY BATTLE: Jess Greene (ALP) defeated Geoff Lyons (ALP). 

SEAT LOST: Rebekah Pentland (IND), Simon Wood (Lib)

Final seat was a six way race - eliminated from contention in order: Pentland, Greens, Liberals, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, 3rd Labor.

NOTE: The Bass count involves a complex and novel Hare-Clark scenario and has been rated Wonk Factor 5/5. 

Click here for link to tallyboard page with links to other postcounts

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INTRODUCTORY NOTE: What Is Leakage?

Leakage is very important in the Bass result.  Leakage occurs when a candidate is excluded or elected and some of their votes instead of flowing to other candidates within their party flow to candidates from outside the party or exhaust.  Parties are more prone to leakage when they have candidates who are way over quota or when they have several candidates to be excluded with substantial vote numbers between them.  Independents, or single-ticket party candidates, cannot leak and will often gain on parties through the count.  

INTRODUCTORY NOTE: What Is The Ginninderra Effect?

The Ginninderra Effect occurs when one party is closer to its next quota than another party, but the other party has all its candidates individually ahead of the "leading" party's last candidate, so the "leading" party is eliminated.  It is so named because the Greens lost twice in a row in the ACT division of Ginninderra as a result of this system quirk.  It tends to advantage major parties over minor parties and independents and is most prone to happen when support is evenly split between two or three candidates within a party.  In the Bass count, it has kept the major parties in the race at a point at which they would otherwise have lost.  There is an extremely wonky article about it here.   There will not be a test later.

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In trying to work out what might happen at this state election, one of the hardest things to figure out was what would happen to the final seat in Bass.  There were a range of possibilities but no one seemed to have their hand up for it.  I'm delighted to inform the House that this is still the case, if anything it's messier than I imagined possible.  Perhaps after tomorrow's prepolls this will change, but we will see.

As I start this thread Bass is 59.3% counted.  Tomorrow we have the Launceston prepoll which in 2024 was worth 16.8% of enrolment; it will probably be larger this time.  

The current quota leaders in Bass in the race for the final seat are:

Shooters Fishers and Farmers 0.368 quotas

Greens 1.316 quotas

Liberals 3.314 quotas

Razay (IND) 0.268

Labor 2.210 quotas

Pentland (IND) 0.190

When the Launceston prepoll is added the Liberals should go up to approaching 3.4 quotas, and all of SF+F, Razay and Pentland should drop.  

The cutup, when it starts, will start with the election of Bridget Archer who currently has 1.46 quotas in her own right.  Michael Ferguson has 0.83 quotas and may cross on Archer's surplus.  Janie Finlay is currently on roughly a quota and will cross either on primaries or very soon after (perhaps even on leakage from Archer.)  There will then be a long series of exclusions from the bottom that after the exclusion of various minor Greens and Liberals will eventually put Rob Fairs and Cecily Rosol over quota in some order.  

It may seem from the numbers above that Labor are trailing several others in the race for the final seat but here Labor have an advantage that Geoff Lyons and Jess Greene currently have almost identical votes (1475 and 1577).  If they can maintain that split then the 1.2 quotas Labor is left with eventually becomes close to 0.6 quotas for each of two candidates. They will not move as quickly on preferences as a single candidate for a party would, but that lead might be large enough to hold off the challengers. 

The other thing in Labor's favour here is that Finlay has almost exactly a quota which is perfect for them.  They have currently only .661 quotas in votes that can leak on preference throws on the way to either Lyons or Greene.  The Liberals have .858 quotas in leakable votes and most of this is in the Archer surplus.  I would expect that because of Archer's federal career and reputation for crossing the floor her votes may be leakier than the average Liberal.

In the event of the Liberals being in contention for four I suspect that Simon Wood will pull ahead of Sladden and Gatenby as an incumbent as he did last time.  

The Greens have lower exposure to leakage than either (.432 quotas currently) but they tend to have very high leakage rates and could well lose about as much to leakage as the majors.  The single-candidate contenders (the Shooters' Michal Frydrych, the independents Razay and Pentland), however, cannot leak, they can only accumulate preferences.  On that basis there's a fair chance, for instance, that Razay will pass the second Green.  

Anti-stadium preferencing, if it was a thing at all, could see some preferences pooling among the minor parties, but a cross-cutting factor is that some share of Greens preferences will always go to Labor - even if a Greens voter hates the stadium, will they really preference the Shooters over it?   Another factor is that SF+F don't usually tend to do that well on preferences.

I suspect this eventually ends up as a candidate race between the Liberals and Frydrych on the one side and the two Labor candidates on the other, and the question is whether the right-wing candidate (after preferences from the other one) can get over one Labor candidate after Labor has gained on Greens preferences.  

In theory an independent like Razay could get over Labor (if the split between its candidates becomes uneven) knocking out one of their candidates, whose preferences will then elect the other with a surplus.  But this isn't very helpful to the independent because there will be a lot of exhaust here.  For this reason I don't think the Greens, Razay and Pentland have serious chances here but will keep an eye on them.

Pentland is in the ungrouped column which will help with preference flows from indies but some of the other ungroupeds are quite Greens-friendly and there will be quite a bit of scatter, especially as Razay is in the adjacent column.

Expect we'll know far more about this one after the prepoll tomorrow.  

Sunday 20th:  Bass prepoll was actually weaker for the Liberals than expected with a below electorate average swing.  They made gains but so did the independents at the expense of Frydrych.  Now Greens 1.342 Liberals 3.336 SF+F 0.329 Razay 0.277 Pentland 0.204 Labor 2.193 - but remember that Labor's apparent last place is possibly really first!  Probably because I could not spell a word that long at 3 am I forgot to mention Labor winning would be another example of the Ginninderra Effect; the DemosAU seat sample pointed to this possibility in this seat.    A blow for the Liberals' chances to have not made a serious gain in this prepoll.

Monday 21st:  I have heard of a small multi-booth scrutineering sample with a colossal leakage rate from Archer - I doubt it will be fully born out but this firms up my expectation that Archer will leak a lot more than the average Liberal ticket leader, I'd expect double digits at least.  

Phone voting was processed today (these are recorded as postals, the mail-in postals are still to come).  The Liberals lead on the notional tally now with 3.348 from the Greens 1.342 SF+F 0.325 Razay 0.277 Pentland 0.202 and Labor 2.186.  The signs of high exhaust rate off the Liberals are handy for Frydrych as they increase the chance that he will be over the last Liberal and be able to access such Liberal preferences as don't exhaust.

PS I have heard that on a further sample the leak off Archer dropped but was still through the roof (around 25%), also that Pentland prefs are mostly scattering (if anything slightly favouring Labor against some opponents).  

Thursday 24th: I think an update I posted to this page yesterday failed to go through or got overwritten accidentally (happens often).  After today's counting the notional tally still has the Liberals leading on 3.344 Q, from SF+F 0.320 Greens 1.319 Razay 0.279 Labor 2.203 and Pentland 0.201.  Geoff Lyons has moved just ahead of Jess Greene but it's possible Greene will do better on preferences anyway (though I'm not sure, Lyons does have a high profile as a former federal member) - in any case I think the chances both win are quite good.  Labor should benefit strongly on Greens preferences but the Liberal preferences are likely to exhaust at a higher rate, assuming the Liberals are excluded before Frydrych which I think is rather likely.  In the Liberal race for probably nothing Wood leads Sladden by 84 with Gatenby 45 further back.

Sat 26th: Lib 3.345 SFF 0.327 Greens 1.320 Razay 0.278 Labor 2.202 Pentland 0.202.  

Monday 28th: I have heard that pending a very small number of primaries the size of leakage from Archer is 11% - lower than I was expecting from some of the reports but still unusually high.  That will put the Liberals back to about 3.284 Q and will lift others (less so the Greens than the rest I expect); the Liberals will have further leakage losses relative to SF+F and Razay later.  I don't think this level of leakage completely knocks the Liberals out though.  

Something to watch here is whether the Liberals can eliminate some or all of the single-candidate contenders by keeping Fairs short of quota as whoever ends up being the fourth Liberal builds their vote share.  At the moment Fairs is only .246 Q ahead of Wood.  If that gap were to hold, and no further Liberal votes leak, then that would be Fairs .765 Q - Wood .519 Q, which would make it hard for the single-candidate tickets to get over Wood, and lead to a finish where Wood can still win over Labor if the Liberals do well on preferences and the Labor split is uneven.  But in 2024 Fairs gained 0.087 Q on Wood at the time of his election, and in that case Fairs was not an incumbent yet.  Still this scenario of Wood at least outlasting Razay, Pentland and the Greens, and perhaps Frydrych as well, seems to be plausible.  

Tuesday 29th: What To Watch For

In the past I've put up "what to watch for" guides to explain what are the most important aspects of a count but in this mess the answer is pretty much everything!  The key points of interest early will be:

* How close do Geoff Lyons' and Jess Greene's totals remain to one another as Labor votes are redistributed? If they remain close together (at least within several hundred of each other), Labor seems to have a very good chance.

* What does the split in the Liberal ticket look like as Liberal votes are distributed?  Does Rob Fairs race towards quota or does he get there slowly?  The latter increases the chances of the Liberals knocking out minor players.

* What happens as ungrouped candidates are excluded?  To what extent did their voters vote for the whole ungrouped column resulting in votes pooling with Pentland?  

Late in the week the major exclusions will start and we will see what order the contenders for the final seat are knocked out in and what their preferences do.  

12:20 Final primaries are up and the Archer surplus has been distributed.  Fairs gained 1258 to just 575 for Wood (Ferguson is not quite over quota yet) - that's not helpful for the Liberals.  The Labor ticket was by far the biggest beneficiary of the 11% leakage from the surplus, gaining 184 votes.  Final primaries were Liberals 3.344 SFF 0.327 Greens 1.320 Razay 0.278 Pentland 0.2022 Labor 2.2016, so if Labor pull this off they started in sixth place on party quota!  But they have already overtaken Pentland on preferences.  

2:50 Slow progress waiting for the Finlay surplus.  In Clark, the last surviving ungrouped candidate held half the ungrouped preferences.  If Pentland repeats that she will probably not quite overtake Razay based on the ungrouped votes, but may yet do so from other sources.

3:07 Finlay surplus done.  Still a very even split in Labor with Lyons 96 ahead of Greene.  

3:50 Not much will happen for a while.  I'm tracking the gap between Frydrych and Wood as a share of the remaining Liberal vote to see what share of the Liberal vote Wood would need to catch Frydrych assuming no leakage.  Currently this sits at 21%, but for the time being preferences in the Liberal ticket are splitting three ways.  It still looks very plausible that Wood will eliminate Frydrych and co late in the count, which would leave the final three as two Labor and Wood.   After Finlay surplus quota totals were SFF .333 Greens 1.332 (will drop) Razay .287 Liberals 3.284 Labor 2.217 Pentland .210

4:10 First exclusion from ungrouped was Groat, but Pentland did not get many of them.

4:20 Ditto off Edwards, Pentland was by far the lowest scorer in the ungrouped column on those.  

5:05 End of play for Tuesday. Pentland was the highest scorer off Caroline Larner but is still 574 behind Razay with 1069 ungrouped column votes left to throw.  Razay is 390 behind Frydrych.  Frydrych to Wood gap is now 21.9% of the remaining Liberal votes, as Frydrych is gaining more than Wood off the ungrouped column.  First out tomorrow is Tim Walker.  

Wednesday 30th 9:50 The first Green. Jack Fittler has been excluded, as well as Tim Walker.  Anne Layton-Bennett got a pile of preferences from these two exclusions and has now jumped into third on the Greens tally, not far behind Lauren Ball who was 149 ahead of McLennan overnight.  I haven't seen a scrutiny sheet update for a while but the Greens must have done well enough off Walker to cancel out losses to leakage so far as they are still ahead of Razay on 1.335 Q to 0.300 Q.   Frydrych to Wood gap now 22.7% of remaining Liberal votes.  

10:30  The second Green, Eric March has been excluded and the minor Greens votes are not flowing very much to Rosol but instead to each other, with Layton-Bennett now in front in the minor Greens pool.  Both Greens exclusions had a 17% leakage rate.  The flow between the minor Greens opens up another possibility: if it continues Rosol might not hit quota before the second-last Green is excluded, and in this case the Greens can also pull the two-candidate trick and outlast Razay and maybe Frydrych.  But leakage will make this more difficult.  We now have the exclusion of Davenport (former Green).

11:15 Davenport excluded.  Pentland got a lot of these off voters voting the ungrouped column but is still 195 behind Razay.  Pentland must overtake Razay to stay in the contest for the final seat.  The main source from which Pentland might hope to catch Razay is the Nationals, especially Armstrong.  We now have the first Nationals exclusion, Cooper.  That should be followed by the first Liberal exclusion, Quaile.  

11:55 Cooper excluded.  Razay gained on Pentland there.  Quaile out with 923 votes, Ferguson needs 223 to cross on this count.  Frydrych to Wood gap now 24.6% of Liberal votes.  

1:20 Very slow exclusion this.  Might be a lunch break issue or a delay uploading results but it's hard to predict how long any given exclusion will go as some have to be rechecked if totals don't add correctly.

1:50 Ferguson has been elected with a surplus of ... two votes!  (Eric Abetz also had a surplus of two votes in Franklin).  The split within the Liberal ticket apart from the votes going to Ferguson was actually quite even and as a result the Frydrych to Wood gap has come down to 24.2% of Liberal votes, so it looks rather likely now that Wood will stay ahead of Frydrych.  

2:30 The Ferguson surplus of two votes is thrown, these went to "loss due to fraction" and will not be seen with any value in the count again.  Tom Hall (Greens) out now.

3:10  Hall-Ball flow puts Ball back well ahead in the Greens second candidate race; some of these patterns in the Greens ticket are weird and may be Robson Rotation products.  First Labor exclusion now, Peter Thomas, with Lyons currently 60 ahead of Greene.  

4:20 Thomas exclusion favoured Greene who is now 49 ahead of Lyons. Next out is McLennan (Greens).  Regarding the Wood-Frydrych gap, once all the minor Liberals are gone, it should be easy for Frydrych to outperform Wood on preferences from Pentland, Razay etc - but it is doubtful whether it will be by enougb as Wood could well be well ahead of Frydrych off the remaining Liberal votes.  

5:48   The McLennan exclusion confirms that Lauren Ball is going to be the second-last Green left, but Rosol is only 895 off quota so any benefit the Greens can get off Rosol being short of quota will be tiny.  Ball is 860 behind Razay and needs 52.6% of Layton-Bennett's flow to catch him even if he gets no leakage.  I expect that Razay will stay ahead of Ball, especially as he is likely to now benefit from Armstrong (Nat) who is next out.  If Pentland gets enough off Armstrong it is highly possible that the Greens will be the first of the six contenders out, but that is less clear.  I think the Greens are most likely out of it as Razay is their only real hope for preferences, but not much of a hope anyway as in 2024 his preferences scattered with slightly more going to each major (but ballot position influenced this).  The Armstrong flow is hugely significant for the order of Frydrych, Razay and Pentland.   Stumps day 2.

Quota totals for what they're worth SF+F .359 Razay .321 Greens 1.306 Liberals 3.299 Pentland .292 Labor 2.248 - so Labor are still sixth on quota total!  

7:10 In a sideshow to the count, Geoff Lyons is being roasted on #politas Twitter after responding to a Facebook photo of Labor's new Tasmanian federal team (six female, two male) with "Looks like the ALP will have to start pre selecting some men".  

Overnight:  A note that while I've been talking about the Wood/Frydrych gap, it could be Chris Gatenby instead - Gatenby is 189 behind Wood with the exclusion of Julie Sladden to come unless Sladden makes a big gain on him off Armstrong.  

Thursday 31st 9:45 am:  Armstrong is out.  Now Pentland is 269 behind Razay.  She may yet outlast Ball in which case preferences from the Greens ticket would be her last chance to overhaul Razay, but with the Greens votes still able to go to Labor there's no reason to believe they would favour her over Razay to that extent so that really seems to be the end of Pentland's chances.  It's also the end for Julie Sladden who is 143 behind Gatenby and has only Greens and Labor leakage to catch up on before she is excluded.  Wood leads Gatenby by 200.  The Frydrych-Wood gap has climbed to 29% of Liberal preferences and will probably climb further when Pentland goes out.  Frydrych over Razay is 342.  Within the Greens' ticket Ball now needs 62.6% of Layton-Bennerr's preferences to catch Razay even if none leak anywhere let alone to Razay; I'm pretty sure that won't be happening so that appears to eliminate the Greens from contention as well.  

11:40 Exclusion of Will Chambers (ALP) and Greene's lead over Lyons is down to 12 votes but the more even the split the better for the party.  Now the exclusion of Layton-Bennett which could elect Rosol, followed by a surplus if that happens, otherwise onto Sladden.  

1:09 Rosol elected, surplus of under 100, then Sladden.  Something I haven't noticed before is that the fourth Labor candidate Melissa Anderson is high enough that she can outlast the Greens, assuming she stays ahead of Luke Moore (current gap there is 31).  One of these will be out after Sladden.  

3:02 Sladden out now, this is Gatenby's last chance to catch Wood as he is 210 behind. It is also a chance for Wood to get a good split - but will be interesting to see the leakage on this one as Sladden was never excluded in 2024. Currently Wood needs 29.4% of Liberal preferences to catch Frydrych but will need to beat that mark substantially to end up really ahead of him.

5:25 Sladden's preferences favoured Gatenby over Wood,  but not enough to keep him in the race.  They also favoured Fairs over both.  Now Wood is 812 behind Frydrych, and needs only 32.8% of Gatenby's current total to wipe out that gap, which he will probably more than get (based off 2024 he might get about 44%, for a lead of 200 or so given that Frydrych will get leakage).  But as preferences come in from the Greens, Pentland and Razay the Liberals will have the problem that they are splitting two ways and all else being equal they need twice as many as Frydrych to keep Wood ahead, so it's still not clear if the Liberals can keep Wood ahead of Frydrych.  That is, if it is Frydrych, as Razay has the Greens and Pentland to try to pass him on (current gap 255, I'd think he has some hope on the Greens votes there,) Still an awful lot going on here!   By the way there was a 21% leak off Sladden.  Stumps day 3.  

Tomorrow, Moore (ALP), Gatenby (Lib), Ball (GRN) and Pentland (IND) will be excluded in what should be that order, with Anderson (ALP) presumably out either before or after Pentland, and then whoever is last out of Razay, Frydrych and Wood will be out.  I expect this to go into Saturday.  

One thing I wonder about is whether a split will develop in the Labor ticket when Anderson is excluded.  So far Greene has done more than alright off the male Labor candidate preferences.

Friday August 1st 10:45 The exclusion of Moore has favoured Lyons within the Labor ticket, he jumps out to a 363 vote lead over Greene.  But that could be good for Labor if it goes back the other way on Anderson which it could very well do, plus I suspect the Greens votes will flow more to the female Labor candidates (at least indirectly).  Gatenby is now excluded and the question here is how far can Simon Wood get ahead of Michal Frydrych off these.  Currently Wood trails by 795; I would think he needs close to half off Gatenby here.  Leakage off Moore was fairly large at 15.5%.  

12:10 A scrutineer has reported that Wood is outpolling Fairs on Gatenby's primary value votes; if this flows through to the rest Wood could get close to half of Gatenby's throw... I am still not sure that is enough to stay over Frydrych.

12:27 Gatenby done.  Wood did what he needed to do to stay in it there, leading Frydrych by 392 with throws of the Greens, Anderson and Pentland in some order and then one of Frydrych and Razay to go.  But Razay is on the move, he is only 193 behind Frydrych!  

It's worth a look at the quota totals here.  Frydrych .413 Razay .392 Pentland .336 Greens 1.320 Liberals 3.286 Labor 2.229.  The Liberals and Labor are behind the Greens on quota total but because the Greens have only one candidate left in the count while the Liberals have two and Labor three, the Greens are individually behind the candidates from both major parties and get excluded (though they would not win from here anyway).  Ginninderra Effect strike 1!

While the Liberals are still in it here, I think they have two problems.  Firstly they are at some point going to be fighting 2 vs 1 against either Frydrych or Razay, which means they could get overtaken. (I'm not sure about this though, Frydrych and Razay will appeal to different voter types and 392 is substantial while votes are splitting at least three ways). Secondly if they do make the final two, Wood is likely to be several hundred votes behind the Labor pair and all the preferences coming into either ticket are splitting 2 vs 2, meaning that even with quite a strong flow from Frydrych it will be hard to get Wood over Labor.  This again depends on the evenness of the split within the Labor ticket.  

3:24 I finally managed to cause (not really!) a Bass update to appear by tweeting "My leading scenario pretty much since the election was called has been that the seventh seat in Bass is eaten by a giant wombat.  Perhaps this has already occurred."  Anyway Razay has closed rapidly on Frydrych off the Greens and is now just 65 behind him.  Frydrych has closed on Wood and is 269 behind him (that's not massive, but more than I thought he might have gained at this exclusion).  Pentland is out now as Anderson has got over her by 21 votes!  In the Labor ticket, Greene has made some progress back and is 259 behind Lyons, which has her well placed to wipe out the deficit (perhaps then some) off Anderson.  Now after Pentland's throw, whoever is last out of Wood, Frydrych and Razay will need to catch it off leakage from Anderson (of which there won't be much) so this is crunch time!  The TEC expects to finish by mid-Saturday.  

Quota totals at this point Frydrych .434 Razay .428 Pentland .365 Labor 2.337 Liberals 3.297 - so if it was on raw quota total the Liberals would be out then Labor but instead Pentland goes - Ginninderra Effect strike 2.  While Labor are now ahead of the Liberals that will probably not still be the way after leakage, unless they do very well off Pentland.  

4:15 Given TEC expect to finish by mid-Saturday I suspect they'll be going well beyond 5 tonight.  

5:10 Game over for Wood and game on for Razay!  Pentland's throw was spectacularly anti=major-party (anti-stadium I suspect too) with Razay getting a whopping 1016 (adjacent column probably helps), Frydrych 608 and the major party candidates very little (Greene 209 Lyons 187 Anderson 146 Fairs 218 Wood 118).  As a result Wood will be out next after Anderson, his exclusion will elect Fairs with surplus which will then leave the Liberal ticket.  Razay leads Frydrych by 343 and Frydrych will have to catch that off 2840 votes leaving the Liberal ticket (a few more post Anderson leakage) of which about half will exhaust.  

Now Anderson has 3245 to throw, 15.5% leaked off Gordon, by this stage the leak could be say 18%, perhaps if things go well for Labor Greene gets about 1500 and Lyons about 1200 to put Greene and Lyons on both 5600 to Razay about 4700 - I don't think Labor can survive that!  Maybe their chances are better if they face Frydrych than Razay.  

Don't forget the ardent pro-stadium voters!  There may be as many as 23 of them (well perhaps a few more than that ...) in all of Bass and their preferences will flow from the Liberals to Labor.  

The Anderson exclusion will be the final throw for today.

7:30 And we have it ... Greene has gone flying ahead on 5922 to Lyons 5461.  Razay 4714 Frydrych 4348.  Wood (out first thing tomorrow) 4099.  1142 off Wood will be soaked electing Fairs, with 2957 votes to leave the Liberal ticket (half or so normally to exhaust).  Assuming Razay stays ahead of Frydrych then Lyons has only a 747 vote lead over Razay with 7305 votes to throw and votes coming into the Labor ticket splitting two ways - extremely difficult for Labor to keep two ahead.  Also very difficult for Frydrych to get back 366 on Razay so Razay's position looks super strong, maybe something weird can still happen to stop him but I normally woud not think so. 

By the way Labor were again last on quota totals (by precisely six votes) but survive because they have a better split of vote between their two candidates than the Liberals do of their two (Ginninderra strike 3 and a new subvariant of it).  But I think their ticket splitting luck could fall at the final hurdle. Stumps day 4. 

Saturday Aug 2nd 8:40 Counting started at 8 am today.  

Saturday 9:44: The first part of the Wood exclusion is completed with still 1103 votes left from surpluses, and Fairs has been elected with a surplus of 1288.  Now the rest are Greene 5989 Lyons 5586 Razay 4846 Frydrych 4438.  So Razay made only a very slight gain of 7 on Lyons off leakage there but he also gained 42 on Frydrych.  So now Frydrych must catch 408 out of 2391 which I would think is not happening and that Frydrych's preferences will decide between Razay and Labor,  If Labor only wins one Greene leads Lyons by 403 (down substantially from 461 on leakage) and I'm not certain that lead is safe - could be a large amount of bloke vote in what's still to throw.

10:20 Wood exclusion is over, Fairs surplus to come.  Greene 6048 Lyons 5681 Razay 4981 Frydrych 4516.  Greene over Lyons down to 367, Lyons over Razay down to 700.  Frydrych can't catch Razay given how many of the Fairs surplus will exhaust and will be next out.  Worth noting that of the Frydrych throw, about 60% of votes will be 1 Frydrych and the rest will be from multiple sources, primarily Pentland (though many of those coming from Pentland will have come from minor independents in turn).  

11:05 The Liberal votes are done.  Greene 6101 Lyons 5754 Razay 5108 Frydrych (out) 4660.  More narrowing there, the gaps are now 347 and 646.  

12:35 IT'S OVER!  Razay (6th) and Greene (7th) win.  Razay 6968 Greene 6555 Lyons 6294.  Labor did not have enough votes at the end for any split in their ticket to hold off Razay.  Razay becomes the new owner of the record for the lowest winning vote share in Tasmanian history, his 3.5% beating Craig Garland's 5.1% from last year, which itself broke a record that had stood for 90 years!  An incredible win off the back of local respect and dissatisfaction with the major parties over the stadium and other things; the cross-ballot preferences between non-majors were significantly stronger this year.  

Razay won the seat by 1%.  Allowing for votes splitting between two candidates in the Labor ticket, a swing of 0.67% from him to Labor would have seen Labor win three, so seriously close.  

NB Razay is not the first Professor elected to Tasmanian Parliament.  Bob Baker (Denison, Liberal 1969-80) was a Law Professor at Utas prior to politics.