tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post9058245176929903271..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Poll Roundup And Seat Betting Watch: Preferred Pet-Sitter EditionKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-222729674081032162016-06-06T22:54:29.391+10:002016-06-06T22:54:29.391+10:00My reaction is the same: treat all polls released ...My reaction is the same: treat all polls released by parties, lobby groups, businesses or anyone else with something to gain from a particular result with extra caution. I'm not aware of any systematic analysis of such polls in previous elections but this election there may well be enough such results to conduct one. From memory union polls for the Victorian election didn't do too badly while the Greens have sponsored a number of polls showing them winning things that they then sometimes win and sometimes don't. In the US context 538 have reported that internal polling is less accurate than public polling and have attributed that to pollsters getting tempted to give the clients what they think the clients want to hear.<br /><br />My main concern about partisan polling is that even if it is all conducted properly (which I believe a lot of it is), somehow one rarely sees an activist group release a poll that does not suit its agenda. So the risk is that the results we're seeing released have been cherry-picked from a larger pool of such polls.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-784559847675842502016-06-06T20:27:08.574+10:002016-06-06T20:27:08.574+10:00G'day Kevin,
I've noticed a few polls paid...G'day Kevin,<br />I've noticed a few polls paid for by Getup and some unions in the last few weeks and my instinct is to be very sceptical of any poll put out by a partisan organisation (either left or right wing) but maybe my instinct is wrong. Are you aware of any analysis of the accuracy of similar polls previous elections? <br />Cheers,<br />Pete.SneakyPetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13979788335587833421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-62549442249507679222016-06-05T14:20:57.224+10:002016-06-05T14:20:57.224+10:00At the moment the model treats all sitting member ...At the moment the model treats all sitting member retirements equally until there is some form of evidence like a seat poll that comes along and tells it otherwise. And yes it is blind to subjective evidence about the quality of the opposition candidate (eg if the candidate is a blow-in). That said the difference between the model's current estimate for the Coalition's chances in Dunkley (67%) and the betting odds estimate (59% ignoring the minor parties) isn't actually all that large - it's equivalent to about half a 2PP point.<br /><br />There is good evidence that long-term incumbents (12+ years) have higher personal votes on average, but only about half a point higher than the average (and that is primary vote and not necessarily 2PP). Peter Brent's measure of personal votes in 2013 (http://www.mumble.com.au/fedelect13/wall/others/HorminusSenall/OZ1.HTM) is rubbery but doesn't suggest Billson was actually super-popular. <br /><br />I will be surprised if Dunkley doesn't get a seat-poll during the campaign, which may help blow any cobwebs out of the model.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-64207302672142737562016-06-05T13:26:22.259+10:002016-06-05T13:26:22.259+10:00I'm not sure how your analysis incorporates re...I'm not sure how your analysis incorporates retiring local members, but it seems way out on Dunkley. The very popular Bruce Billson is retiring after 20 years, the Liberals pre-selected an outsider rather than a local, and Labor's odds on Sportsbet have continuously tumbled from 7.50 with Billson to 2.30 today. Momentum seems all one way here.Dunkley Watchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16045868854126236906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-33517786721976358142016-06-03T23:32:02.289+10:002016-06-03T23:32:02.289+10:00Thankyou! Another one to add to next week's li...Thankyou! Another one to add to next week's list. So many at-risk Coalition seats ...Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-5275387187611005192016-06-03T23:18:27.513+10:002016-06-03T23:18:27.513+10:00Sportsbet is favouring Labor in Page
http://www.s...Sportsbet is favouring Labor in Page<br /><br />http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics/Page-(NSW)-2201832.htmlAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05118129740267969977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-37866379836143174892016-06-01T16:47:25.183+10:002016-06-01T16:47:25.183+10:00Very quiet campaign so far in South Australia. No ...Very quiet campaign so far in South Australia. No one seems to be talking about the election at all. Xenophon will do well, especially with the over 50's and there are plenty of that demographic here in South Australia. The Abbott Liberals said some very unkind things about South Australia and like Tasmanians we do not forget such things and it is very noticeable how quiet the Liberal MP's are here. Not even any junk mail as yet. Labor is not that popular either, not with a Labor state government, that has been in forever and not seeming to be doing anything much at all. Many people will not hesitate to vote for Xenophon and for South Australia to have some non-old party representation in Canberra.BRENTONhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05209051549953833708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-50737799210431535572016-06-01T13:30:48.288+10:002016-06-01T13:30:48.288+10:00Stirling - it is on 9% so with much of the WA poll...Stirling - it is on 9% so with much of the WA polling suggesting the swing may be that much or greater, I guess the concern is that if the swing blows out Labor just might win it no matter who their candidate is or what effort they are making. Candidate factors don't have a huge impact (unless the candidate is especially stellar or awful). <br /><br />Canning - this is an interesting one because the margin from the last election was disrupted by a by-election. But by-elections usually see a swing against governments anyway. Hastie has had limited time to build up a personal vote but the unusual prominence of the by-election probably means he has very high name recognition. So I think the seat should be treated as on a margin slightly less than its last election margin, but not much less. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-48870957471662174922016-06-01T13:16:44.395+10:002016-06-01T13:16:44.395+10:00Thanks for the correction re Swan, this has been f...Thanks for the correction re Swan, this has been fixed. I've deleted what I assumed was a duplicate comment. (Comments here are manually approved by me so it sometimes takes me a while to clear them.)Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-91310001206708386952016-06-01T06:25:37.672+10:002016-06-01T06:25:37.672+10:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.hugamugahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13330265398606659360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-73933952966779754572016-06-01T05:33:51.102+10:002016-06-01T05:33:51.102+10:00I have been confused by the odds in Cowan as well,...I have been confused by the odds in Cowan as well, it's really hard to imagine liberals holding it while the swing is so large in WA. Talking to my volunteer friend in labor they are feeling pretty confident in taking it. <br /><br />Any idea why Stirling is so close labor haven't announced a candidate yet, and I don't think they plan on putting much effort in to winning it at this point.<br /><br />Another seat with weird odds is Canning with the swing on so hard in WA I would expect labor to at least be competitive. <br /><br />Should swan be listed as a close coalition hold on your list?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06058153937361179985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-35912656837872324992016-06-01T02:33:34.703+10:002016-06-01T02:33:34.703+10:00I feel like Cowan has slipped off the radar a bit ...I feel like Cowan has slipped off the radar a bit in recent elections due to Labot not really throwing resources at it since the retirement of the very popular Graham Edwards: Liz Prime underwhelmed in 2007, Chas Hopkins was a last-minute recruit after a candidate mishap in 2010 and turned out to be a goose, and their 2013 candidate was nobody I've ever heard of (and I'm about as wonkish as they come). Anne Aly is a great candidate and Luke Simpkins is also a goose so I can see why it'd come back now with a swing on in the west, but after a decade of it being well down the list of watched seats, not surprised some punters might forget Labor has a pulse up that way.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04105527061986066269noreply@blogger.com