tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post84660490582596470..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Queensland Galaxy Says Game On For PHON Balance Of PowerKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-86548541171935342782017-02-20T23:48:14.285+11:002017-02-20T23:48:14.285+11:00Comment from Andrew Bartlett (originally posted to...Comment from Andrew Bartlett (originally posted to incorrect thread):<br />------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />At this stage One Nation aren't indicating they will run in every seat, so that does confuse some of the statewide modelling/predictions. <br /><br />But it is pretty much certain that the LNP will preference One Nation ahead of Labor and Greens in any seat that matters. (They may not do this in some Brisbane/SEQ seats to try to save face, although I doubt that would help them to alleviate any damage anyway). The only caveat to that is if it turns out that the WA Lib's decision to do a preference deal with One Nation for their pending election turns out bery badly for them. This may lead to a rethink - although being a Queenslander seeing the Murdoch media enthusiastically giving One Nation coverage pretty much every day, I think it will be almost impossible for the LNP to back out from their One Nation embrace now. <br /><br />Also, there is the issue that Labor has to defend 2 or 3 SEQ seats which the Greens are credible contenders in. Pushing policies/messages to hang on to these seats whilst also pushing policies/messages to hang on to important regional seats will be a challenge for Labor. <br /><br />Having said that, the LNP is under bigger threat from One Nation. They are already accepting the prospect that their most likely hope of getting back into government is with One Nation backing them as a minority government.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-27503014764567209952017-02-13T23:53:32.380+11:002017-02-13T23:53:32.380+11:00One hassle worth noting with PHON in WA that was p...One hassle worth noting with PHON in WA that was pointed out by William Bowe in Crikey today is that they're not running in every seat, and there are a lot of ALP target seats they've not bothered with. So in those seats the Libs won't get any PHON preferences, they'll just get whatever blowback there might be from voters. A tricky issue for seat-by-seat modelling!Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-41744153903655030162017-02-13T23:44:05.569+11:002017-02-13T23:44:05.569+11:00My suspicion is that Libs around the country belie...My suspicion is that Libs around the country believe that PHON will get their support evenly from both sides of the political spectrum, but if the Libs are "kinder" to the PHON voters they can get a strong preference flow. <br /><br />There hasn't been a strong preference flow one way or the other from PHON, but then we haven't seen a major party doing deals with them. Also, in WA for example we can expect to see Liberal volunteers handing out PHON how-to-vote cards, which means more cards saying to preference the Libs. Where PHON has handed out its own cards it probably hasn't handed out so many and hence the more even split of preference flows. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06259808921447013719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-37356540232208740712017-02-12T00:30:18.500+11:002017-02-12T00:30:18.500+11:00It's not really the decision to preference PHO...It's not really the decision to preference PHON I had the issue with but rather the decision to flatter them in the process. An alternative would be to declare that PHON are actually a horribly unstable rabbble which still has some seriously dodgy ideas but that even they are less of a threat to whatever the LNP holds dear than the policies of Labor and the Greens. On that basis the LNP could announce it was going to put One Nation third last, Labor second last and the Greens last and thereby still preference them but without praising them so much in the process. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-72089332565990185612017-02-12T00:13:13.091+11:002017-02-12T00:13:13.091+11:00Yes, I agree that Coalition preferencing ON would ...Yes, I agree that Coalition preferencing ON would legitimize the party and send the message that it is ok for Coalition voters to vote for it. It may save the day but in the long run turn out to be a strategic mistake. Gorkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02023170102631173010noreply@blogger.com