tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post8058457600629408200..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Wonk Central: How Should Parties Count Member Ballots For Senate Tickets?Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-19027749204733320112015-08-11T20:13:17.624+10:002015-08-11T20:13:17.624+10:00I intended my comments to be specific to the Austr...I intended my comments to be specific to the Australian system in which parties normally have a very good idea how many positions are certain, nearly certain, tossups, unlikely, unwinnable. I agree that for countries with much longer party lists this sort of thing would be difficult to implement and best avoided. Many such countries don't have a culture of preferential voting so it would be interesting to know how they might perform member preselection ballots. <br /><br />The second question touches on something that was actually noted in the recent Tas Labor preselections - the Left as by far the dominant faction won all five single-member preselections. I am not sure if there is any sound way to reconcile single-seat preselection ballots with minority representation in a member-voting system. For a multi-candidate ticket like a Senate ticket there is the possibility of imposing result restrictions. Tasmanian Labor actually does this to meet female endorsement targets (as noted by Adam Clarke in comments to the Singh article - if not enough females are elected then sufficient males are unelected to ensure that enough females win.)Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-23324703351404123042015-08-11T19:41:44.145+10:002015-08-11T19:41:44.145+10:00Sounds good when there are two or three positions ...Sounds good when there are two or three positions but do you think this would work in, say, the Netherlands? A party there may be polling enough for 15 seats at the time of preselections but could still end up with far fewer seats if political events go against them. At which point do they say seats are guaranteed? Perhaps with so many positions to fill Hare-Clarke May become a bit cumbersome. <br />Another question: What if a party had clearly distinct factions and wanted to devide up the preselections between the factions in proportion to their support, but there is a single member district system in place? Not all seats would be equal; some would be guarenteed wins, some marginal, some highly unlikely so such a system would have to reflect that. You would also have to consider a candidates connection to the electorate. I don't think such a system could be workable which is unfortunate because without something like this the dominant faction could be over represented amount preselected candidates. On top of this, single member district systems over represent the largest parties. The combined result of disproportionate preselections and disproportionate election winners could result in MPs being drawn from a very narrow ideological spectrum (plus of course the Downsian convergence such systems bring).Hans Molotovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05321336376364105527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-48340051613337889182015-08-09T17:04:16.401+10:002015-08-09T17:04:16.401+10:00I'm not sure if you meant that as two stages o...I'm not sure if you meant that as two stages of postal voting (which I think parties want to avoid for time and cost reasons, but is quite OK if that isn't an issue) or a two-stage election using the same ballot papers. If the latter, that seems like quite a viable solution too: do a Hare-Clark election for (say) four places, restart the election, bulk exclude all non-winners from the original election, then do a new election using the same papers for the top two positions.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-61871451728198206902015-08-09T15:04:27.514+10:002015-08-09T15:04:27.514+10:00Great article Kevin. What do you think about a two...Great article Kevin. What do you think about a two stage system where all candidates participate in a H-C vote to determine the four people who go through to the second STV vote which determines ballot paper order?<br />Krelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02216099931541878009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-59599673134750943582015-08-09T12:16:23.979+10:002015-08-09T12:16:23.979+10:00Phew! I arrived at the end and still say... Phew!Phew! I arrived at the end and still say... Phew!Bridgewaterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08095123507930415187noreply@blogger.com