tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post8036907100994740830..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: ReachTEL Points To Tasmanian Status QuoKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-52025813999173118052016-05-16T15:34:30.686+10:002016-05-16T15:34:30.686+10:00I think it's quite likely that Lisa Singh will...I think it's quite likely that Lisa Singh will poll the best out of Labor below the line and may get 3% as there are a lot of people that were unhappy with the way the preselection went. However with optional above the line voting, i think this may encourage more voting above the line. This leads to party preselection being a bit more powerful than before.<br /><br />That said, Tasmanian's are surprisingly good at voting below the line, so anything could happen and generally speaking below the line voters are probably more politically aware and hence may be more inclined to put Lisa Singh first in their labor preferences (If i don't know the candidates i tend to vote bottom up when it comes to BTL voting, just because i like the concept of messing with party pre-selection, however this tends to happen only for people past about preference 20). Jamiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02279311494127044640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-32365377960387458492016-05-16T15:27:14.563+10:002016-05-16T15:27:14.563+10:00I am happy to say that my response was Wilkie, so ...I am happy to say that my response was Wilkie, so that would explain why i didn't get pushed on further preferences.<br /><br />It should be noted that this poll was based on a person being able to press what number they wanted whenever they wanted (i.e. not hearing all the options first). This gives a slight advantage to someone at the top of the readout and slight disadvantage to who was last on the list. Probably doesn't affect the "house" candidate selection, but may have a bearing on what is the most important issue to you.<br /><br />I must admit that i was confused with the Lambie being read out and assumed that she might be running a candidate in the house. In my case it wouldn't have mattered, but generally speaking I think people are more likely to pick someone in the top 2 or 3 for the house, but the senate people are more likely to go with their first pick. Would have been nice in this instances if people had been asked about the senate and house separately, if that was the information they were after. Jamiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02279311494127044640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-3969473555823294332016-05-16T01:02:58.592+10:002016-05-16T01:02:58.592+10:00I'm sceptical about Green preferences being mu...I'm sceptical about Green preferences being much use to Singh because that requires the Greens to get substantially over two quotas (15.4%) and I don't think they will. If the Greens do get their two quotas more or less on primaries then that will free up left-wing micro votes to perhaps flow to her. It's tough though. She needs to whip up something like 3% in her own right, and have Labor poll well enough that the fifth seat is there for her, but not so well that she can't overtake the fifth candidate. I don't think she has that much of a following outside Denison and even there she wasn't able to save her state seat, so it won't be easy. I definitely don't dismiss it as a possibility though. It's the kind of thing where if it would work anywhere it would be here.<br /><br />It would be rather amusing if both Colbeck and Singh got decent BTL votes and the final seats turned into a Hare-Clark style race between candidates rather than parties. Not sure though if voters will be alert enough to the new system the first time around.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-49584771427127072212016-05-16T00:43:46.028+10:002016-05-16T00:43:46.028+10:00Another thing here is that Denison was Wilkie vs L...Another thing here is that Denison was Wilkie vs Labor last time (Labor beat Liberal in the cutup by five points). What possible reason could there be for the Liberals to gain five points on Labor compared to 2013? I can't see one so there is probably some sample error.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-49099474141045319262016-05-15T22:28:48.002+10:002016-05-15T22:28:48.002+10:00G'day Kevin
Thanks for the analysis
I'd ...G'day Kevin<br /><br />Thanks for the analysis<br /><br />I'd imagine, hope, that a number of Labor voters could take advantage of the voting changes in the Senate to elevate Lisa Singh above her spot on the ticket. She may even get some Green support. Thoughts on how that may play out?Womblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08909540330006012154noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-52723552760292539832016-05-15T21:07:52.533+10:002016-05-15T21:07:52.533+10:00I wouldn't think that Denison would end up bei...I wouldn't think that Denison would end up being a Wilkie-Lib 2CP count. I understand that Wilkie would take the majority of his voters from Labor, although i'd suggest he'd pull votes from all 3 of the established parties. <br />In the end I think their is enough "naturally" Labor voters in this electorate to pull them into second place.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351448744030085941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-8824700438518506932016-05-15T19:31:55.648+10:002016-05-15T19:31:55.648+10:00Elwick is 35.3% of Denison by enrolment so I'v...Elwick is 35.3% of Denison by enrolment so I've corrected that bit, ta. The overlap between Denison and Nelson is greater than I remembered it to be. <br /><br />The MoE on a respondent-directed 2PP is actually higher than the MoE for a primary vote for a given major party, generally. The less roundabout reason for this is that MoE is a function not only of sample size but also of percentage - the MoE on a result of 50% is higher than that for a result of 35%, for instance. The publication of single "margins of error" for a polling sample is misleading; different results in a poll have different MoEs.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-17578420216145332972016-05-15T18:39:33.413+10:002016-05-15T18:39:33.413+10:00> There are some risks involved in using respon...> There are some risks involved in using respondent-allocated preferences in small<br />> samples. A sample of 600 has a non-major party vote of about 100-150 voters per<br />> electorate. These subsamples then have a margin of error of 8-10 points on a<br />> good day, which means that the use of respondent preferences can easily cause up<br />> to two points of 2PP error by itself. This then increases the effective error<br />> margin on the 2PP estimate.<br /><br />It seems to me this should not be the case so long as the voter is in full control of their own preferences. That is, the MoE that applies to the question of which major party they would rank higher is no different to the MoE that applies to the question of which party they'd rank first. Of course if they're not in full control of their own preferences, then it's scarcely worth asking the question.<br /><br />> The Labor brand can't be too trashed in Denison given that the party just won a<br />> Legislative Council seat covering almost half of it with a 10% swing!<br /><br />Given that there are 15 LegCo seats to 5 divisions, it's surely like a third.<br /><br />Finally, I wonder if Lambie has missed a trick by not standing lower house candidates.<br /><br />Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04688986737782122786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-82027250347239951862016-05-15T14:44:51.781+10:002016-05-15T14:44:51.781+10:00ReachTEL have advised me that preferences were all...ReachTEL have advised me that preferences were all respondent-allocated. That is, voters picking Green, JLN or Ind/Other would have been asked for a preference between Labor and Liberal (or for Denison, Wilkie and Liberal).Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-45970222088559836482016-05-15T13:58:16.397+10:002016-05-15T13:58:16.397+10:00Thanks Jamie, I have the text and results of all t...Thanks Jamie, I have the text and results of all the questions; I'm just not allowed to release most of them yet. Just to check on the preference bit (and I'm happy not to publish your answer if you don't want any info about your party choice revealed!) am I right that you gave a first preference that wasn't Labor, Liberal or Wilkie and then weren't asked for a further preference? If they were using respondent preferences then a Labor or Liberal voter wouldn't have been asked that question. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-90942064781543904972016-05-15T13:48:52.133+10:002016-05-15T13:48:52.133+10:00I was actually polled in this particular poll, if ...I was actually polled in this particular poll, if you have any queries about the questions. One thing to note is that there was respondent-allocated preference questions asked, it was simply a first preference question.Jamiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02279311494127044640noreply@blogger.com