tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post7959142459630483595..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Poll Roundup: Turnbull Popular, Size Of Lead Less ClearKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-73813009199434142422015-10-20T10:33:30.526+11:002015-10-20T10:33:30.526+11:00It's possible both these things are true. How...It's possible both these things are true. However, William's analysis is based on demographic breakdowns from several results from a wide range of polls. The Age's, on the other hand, is based on samples of c. 700 in each gender in a single poll result, with the most recent benchmark from the same poll being two months ago. This is a classic case of a media outlet using its own poll without seeking confirming data from other sources. Morgan (such as it is) with total samples of c. 4000 of each gender over three polls since the switch has had an average 2PP gender gap (male Coalition support minus female) of 6.3 points, much larger than the 2 points in Ipsos, with no evidence that the gender gap has narrowed.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-9706116478844069862015-10-20T09:53:26.027+11:002015-10-20T09:53:26.027+11:00"William Bowe's analysis (largely paywall..."William Bowe's analysis (largely paywalled) shows that the boost in Coalition primary support is coming among median-age and especially older demographics,". Bowe headline:"Older greens seduced by silver fox"<br />"Female voters flocking back to the Coalition under Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull" screams The Age.<br />Hmm.. who to believe. The policy implications are interesting. Crikey(PollBludger) would pit older greens who want to return to the Government against older denialists already well entrenched. The Age analysis posits no policy conflict within the Government!<br />I wonder how Crikey missed the closing of the gender gap!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08155353359653365734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-11129730724186661432015-10-14T00:30:12.242+11:002015-10-14T00:30:12.242+11:00One thing I noticed about the cohort in question i...One thing I noticed about the cohort in question is that under Abbott, Turnbull could gradually sell out more and more and more, and their enthusiasm for him wouldn't wane. (This is quite different to the reaction from younger Green-leaning voters, who were often critical of Turnbull's performance on the NBN, for instance.) The question here - and I don't know the answer yet - is whether that was because they just figured he was playing the game and would move back towards the left once he became PM, or whether their liking of him is actually not all that policy-dependent. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-62010270274009266022015-10-13T23:38:33.485+11:002015-10-13T23:38:33.485+11:00Hi Kevin
Just in relation to this: "It is no...Hi Kevin<br /><br />Just in relation to this: "It is no surprise if the higher-income end of the Greens surge under Abbott was always soft"<br /><br />I agree with you on that. However, if Turnbull doesn't tread carefully with this cohort there is a good chance that a large portion of these presumably traditional Liberal voters will become rusted-on Greens. Part of the danger Turnbull faces is he needs to show he's leading a substantially different government from Abbott (because the Abbott government is about as well-loved as the Gillard government was) while keeping the presumably qualified support of a large number of former Abbott loyalists. If he fails on the first measure, the former Liberal voters who said they'd vote Green under Abbott may well give up on the Liberals altogether, on the basis that the most high profile 'wet' (at least as far as his public persona goes) in the party is carrying on a conservative platform. If we're really sitting on 50-51.5%, a change like this would be a serious immediate danger for Turnbull's leadership (as the qualified support of conservatives only existed on the assumption he could poll better than Abbott), but could be a serious long-term problem for the Liberal Party. If we're talking about the group who used to be called 'Doctors' Wives' and is more likely these days just to be 'Doctors', the Greens of 2015 are almost definitely a more attractive prospect for them than Labor ever were or could be (as there's no 'conservative bogan' element to be associated, and the 'feral greenie' element is far less prominent these days). If Turnbull, 'of all people' can't deliver on the key cultural issues, this cohort may well switch to the Greens permanently. So they might have been 'soft' under Abbott, but could definitely harden under Turnbull. In this sense Turnbull is at once the Greens' greatest threat and their greatest opportunity.<br /><br />If he fails on the second measure, of course, there's a good chance of a conservative coup, which should turf the Liberals out of government for at least six years (notwithstanding Labor's uncanny ability for unforced errors). As much as Turnbull looks to be enjoying himself, walking this tightrope can't be too much fun. Even the press gallery are starting to notice this: Mark Kenny observed today "The ascendant PM is required to promote two messages which are logically inconsistent. These are that the business of government goes on as before, and the contradictory point that September's explosive change was utterly necessary to deliver different outcomes."<br /><br />http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-supremacy-er-not-yet-at-least-20151012-gk76kq.html#ixzz3oS1TA0f4 Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14839885587337234268noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-8508270397735030972015-10-12T21:52:08.835+11:002015-10-12T21:52:08.835+11:00Thanks Kevin - I also debated deleting Morgan, but...Thanks Kevin - I also debated deleting Morgan, but ultimately kept it in ...Mark Graphhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com