tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post7921600822230590533..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: EMRS: Closest Gap For Four YearsKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-68019790296019662362014-09-01T21:08:34.285+10:002014-09-01T21:08:34.285+10:00The Greens won Bass last time but polled only .76 ...The Greens won Bass last time but polled only .76 of quota, which normally would not have been enough to win, but for a friendly distribution of the remaining votes between the other parties. If Labor picks up the suggested swing on primary votes then Labor goes to much closer to two quotas in Bass than the Greens are to one, even if there is a trivial swing to the Greens overall. The Greens would probably not catch Labor for the final seat in that case. <br /><br />Of course it can be argued that Booth might get a boost from being leader throwing the above into more serious doubt. A flip side of that assumption though is that McKim loses votes by not being leader, and becomes at minor risk of losing Franklin if the swing away from the Liberals there is below the state average.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-74941683808178038152014-09-01T20:59:51.261+10:002014-09-01T20:59:51.261+10:00I suppose the increased Labor surplus would overta...I suppose the increased Labor surplus would overtake the Green vote and steal the seat. I guess weird stuff like that happens when you rely on preferences to get over the line.<br /><br />Cheers for elaborating in the post.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05947377166619293759noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-76936860084872020462014-09-01T20:34:32.605+10:002014-09-01T20:34:32.605+10:00The Greens won Bass last time, and 14% would be a ...The Greens won Bass last time, and 14% would be a positive swing from the last election. So to lose Bass, the seat of their new leader, Green votes would have to have shifted to Braddon (Which seems unlikely) or concentrated further in Denison and Franklin.<br /><br />Interested in hearing your reasoning for the 2 seat outcome.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05947377166619293759noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-27446787079161655572014-09-01T20:15:39.737+10:002014-09-01T20:15:39.737+10:00EMRS had them at 5 twice before the election and t...EMRS had them at 5 twice before the election and that was what they got (ReachTEL had them up towards 7 at one stage). The two polls since the election were 3% then the current 1%. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-73834422030445716952014-09-01T18:46:59.197+10:002014-09-01T18:46:59.197+10:00Well PUP didn't last long... How were they tra...Well PUP didn't last long... How were they tracking in Tasmanian polling before this one? How much support have they lost in this poll?BlackVegiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06380314430186538856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-25820995098364245822014-09-01T16:54:28.780+10:002014-09-01T16:54:28.780+10:00I'd really want to see some leader satisfactio...I'd really want to see some leader satisfaction ratings rather than just Preferred Premier ratings to comment on how Bryan Green is going personally. Trailing Hodgman 25-51 as preferred Premier is OK under the circumstances and to be expected; it doesn't really tell us a lot.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-34470196944173735402014-09-01T16:42:13.419+10:002014-09-01T16:42:13.419+10:00I believe that the improvement in Labor's fort...I believe that the improvement in Labor's fortunes in Tassie is in no small part due to the electorate's favourable opinion of the new Labor leader. What do you think, Kevin?HillbillySkeletonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06056151016359730712noreply@blogger.com