tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post7869972577670539633..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: 2019 Federal: Late Night Live CommentaryKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-31439092755173650302019-05-19T17:08:43.928+10:002019-05-19T17:08:43.928+10:00For sure. However some of the exhaust is caused b...For sure. However some of the exhaust is caused by voters not voting to 6, so there will still be some.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-83631212088870229492019-05-19T16:57:49.647+10:002019-05-19T16:57:49.647+10:00There are only 7 groups on the ballot paper and on...There are only 7 groups on the ballot paper and one of them is Anning's candidate. I'm guessing the exhaust rate might be lower.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-42088816436085743192019-05-19T16:08:42.659+10:002019-05-19T16:08:42.659+10:00Based on the current lead the issue is that the La...Based on the current lead the issue is that the Labor preferences won't nearly all flow to the Greens (last time it was 74-20 with the rest exhausted) and nor I'd expect would Pesec's. At the best, whatever they have might benefit the Greens at say 0.6 votes/vote between them. The Liberals will also benefit from UAP, FACN and postals, though the Greens should benefit from SA. <br /><br />The count is very incomplete so the only chance is if the primaries change a lot in what is left. Haven't looked at where the votes come from and what is still outstanding.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-31193544275079040832019-05-19T15:56:20.382+10:002019-05-19T15:56:20.382+10:00That comment is on the website of the old Newspoll...That comment is on the website of the old Newspoll which ceased running the poll in 2015. Since then Newspoll has been administered by Galaxy.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-19933909518134006472019-05-19T15:29:19.846+10:002019-05-19T15:29:19.846+10:00Hi Kevin,
For the ACT you say the Liberals are &...Hi Kevin, <br /><br />For the ACT you say the Liberals are "far enough ahead of the Greens to easily not be caught". However, (on the ABC site) they are only currently 0.31 quotas ahead while the Labor surplus + Pesec combine for 0.33 quota. You would expect these to flow strongly to the Greens. While the Liberals are in front, what is it that makes you so confident in their lead?<br /><br />An interesting scenario would be Labor winning a 3rd seat in Victoria plus a 2nd in Queensland, and also the Greens winning off preferences in the ACT - that would give the two parties 38 seats combined.<br /><br />While its definitely not the most likely path, there is a chance for Labor + the Greens to somehow end up with a blocking majority in the Senate from all this.<br /><br />BlackVegiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06380314430186538856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-76024525259593328912019-05-19T14:56:42.348+10:002019-05-19T14:56:42.348+10:00Will be interesting to see how the spin on the New...Will be interesting to see how the spin on the Newspoll website changes after this. http://www.newspoll.com.au/about-us-2/proven-accuracy/ Comments like this:<br /><br />"Because it’s Newspoll, you can be sure it’s right.<br />Our faultless record in election polling is proof."<br />Ekigozanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835215309657644433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-47449609466220698822019-05-19T12:10:34.430+10:002019-05-19T12:10:34.430+10:00In the UK people keep hypothesising the "shy ...In the UK people keep hypothesising the "shy Tory" voter who is embarrassed to admit that he/she votes Tory. I doubt that embarrassment holds back ON voters - they're all too willing to shout at canvassers for other parties outside polling places. But perhaps they (and some Liberal voters) don't respond to pollsters, not because they're embarrassed but because they're essentially antisocial and think "how I vote is nobody's effing business". More like Surly Tories or Snooty Tories than shy ones, I expect. Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-33040330490137010052019-05-19T11:59:48.945+10:002019-05-19T11:59:48.945+10:00I suspect a combination of problems with getting a...I suspect a combination of problems with getting a representative sample (by any method), oversampling of politically engaged voters, herding and possibly unpublished data-smoothing practices. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-85564386928280346322019-05-19T11:56:40.500+10:002019-05-19T11:56:40.500+10:00Very minor doubt. Hospital votes should bring it ...Very minor doubt. Hospital votes should bring it up to about 500, then there's the postcount which in 2016 favoured Liberals greatly and in 2013 did nothing. It is very rare for postcounts to favour Labor by enough to save it here.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-57140434329985714452019-05-19T11:54:53.713+10:002019-05-19T11:54:53.713+10:00No because the polling failure occurred across all...No because the polling failure occurred across all modes including online and robopolling where there is no reason to be embarrassed.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-34434046985767740332019-05-19T11:36:53.642+10:002019-05-19T11:36:53.642+10:00OK, so the pre-election polls were all wrong and, ...OK, so the pre-election polls were all wrong and, since they were all near-identical, at least part of that has to be explained by herding - by being more frightened that an outlier would be wrong than excited by the prospect that it might be the only one that was right. Verrry risk-aversive behaviour! But the only (I think) exit poll that was reported also joined the herd, saying Labor was ahead by 52-48! Surely there'd be no inhibitions about just giving a straight report of the outcome there? Any suggestion as to what could be happening there Kevin? Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-46101916212235154122019-05-19T07:28:38.052+10:002019-05-19T07:28:38.052+10:00I notice Bass has ben presumed won the the Liberal...I notice Bass has ben presumed won the the Liberals. There's only 320 votes in it. Is there some doubt over this seat?Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10255433831306698402noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-85513492911231518392019-05-19T06:35:43.860+10:002019-05-19T06:35:43.860+10:00Hi Kevin,
I really enjoy your updates, thanks for...Hi Kevin,<br /><br />I really enjoy your updates, thanks for the hard work!<br /><br />Do you think embarrassment to admit over the phone that they will vote for a party like One Nation may partly explain the disconnect between polling and results? They primary swing to the Coalition seems smaller than the bleed to the fringe minor parties.Miguelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05801730738470165124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-71568818300063737042019-05-19T04:23:41.466+10:002019-05-19T04:23:41.466+10:00The "polling error" also occurred in the...The "polling error" also occurred in the exit poll (Galaxy/Channel9) which had Labor leading 52-48.<br /><br />This is the same result and error as all of the other polls, but can't be blamed on phone lines etc....<br /><br />So either unlucky or lazy sampling, or voters aren't giving their true opinions.Dewnansekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02210428237548022768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-85431122179144391332019-05-19T03:06:29.422+10:002019-05-19T03:06:29.422+10:00I get about 3% nationally too as the amount of err...I get about 3% nationally too as the amount of error. Maybe a bit more.<br /><br />It's important to keep in mind that until now our national polls had an outstanding record. But it will take them a while to recover trust through successful results. Among the process of winning back that trust will need to be admitting that they have been too opaque about how they do polling (Galaxy especially) and that they need to open up their processes to public examination. Galaxy/Newspoll in particular need to explain why their polls are under-dispersed compared to random variation. The others need to explain whether they were herding to Galaxy/Newspoll and if so why. <br /><br />And yes it is indeed about a range of different methods since Galaxy (landline/mobile), Newspoll operated by Galaxy (landline/online), Ipsos (landline/mobile), Essential (online) and Morgan (face to face) have all failed. <br /><br />The Queensland 2015 state fail was different. Pollsters sampled the primary votes in Queensland 2015 very accurately. The mistake was in the preference flow modelling. But there is a very long pattern that Labor polls well in Queensland in federal election leadups and then falls over on election day. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-28306512856950107252019-05-19T00:47:24.671+10:002019-05-19T00:47:24.671+10:00Antony Green, in the course of the ABC coverage, p...Antony Green, in the course of the ABC coverage, put the undoubted failure of polling down to the difficulty of obtaining a reliable sample with a mobile population who are no longer tethered to land-lines. That seems an inadequate response given that it's not one poll that's now suspect; the similarity in results means that *every* poll taken in the course of the Turnbull/Morrison government may have been wrong by the same margin, which he estimated at 3% nationally (but was 8-12% in Queensland). In the process, though, he avoided answering the question, "Why on earth would anyone EVER trust another opinion poll?"<br /><br />I think that it's over to you and other such analysts, who need to provide an answer to that question. I am reminded of when no-one predicted the Labor win in Queensland a few years ago - and raise an eyebrow at the thought that the state most grievously misread this time was Queensland, again.<br /><br />For a starter, is it enough to simply double error margins? Or sample sizes? Or rejig the correlation between sample sizes and error rates to a looser value? Those would all seem to be relevant questions if Antony's surmise as to the cause of the error is correct. But what else might be the cause, and how do we correct the problem?Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09569372868831612962noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-47300877673453578452019-05-19T00:05:34.836+10:002019-05-19T00:05:34.836+10:00Macquarie is now showing as ALP ahead (by0.2) as o...Macquarie is now showing as ALP ahead (by0.2) as of 19 minutes ago.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.com