tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post7429433855944017046..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Longman By-ElectionKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-4897240021099371252018-07-25T10:58:27.899+10:002018-07-25T10:58:27.899+10:00Good post but soo many unknowns...as you point out...Good post but soo many unknowns...as you point out..... Forgot what the margin of error is in these 800 size samples think is plus or minus 4%.all the local polls are close...how much does change in preferences of onp make? Have they grown from last vote in 2016?10% odd....if so where do they draw their votes from?most likely reduced lnp vote..if so no advantage to lnp….usually the party shares via opinion polls are very accurate... That is an alp swing of 2% plus magnified in QLD..also hard to believe that the adverse publicity has not harmed onp and lnp votes. Pick alp retain<br /><br />..Mickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02784376200127303021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-28193923894813896282018-07-24T23:01:38.841+10:002018-07-24T23:01:38.841+10:00Being obscure is not much of a hinderance for chal...Being obscure is not much of a hinderance for challenger candidates; I've seen a lot of mediocre performers get into federal parliament on surprisingly large swings. The record concerning Ruthenberg's personal vote as a state LNP MP is nondescript - came in on a monster swing in 2012, left (like so many others) the way he came in in 2015. The swing against him in 2015 was 1.5 points larger than the swing he got in on in 2012; if he'd been a star performer he could have done a bit better than that.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-8760222104483411422018-07-24T21:24:01.262+10:002018-07-24T21:24:01.262+10:00I follow State politics fairly closely but I don&#...I follow State politics fairly closely but I don't think I heard a thing about Trevor Ruthenberg in the nearly 3 years that he was member for Kallangur, not far north from where I live. A total nonentity. And dumb or dishonest (probably dumb) - the ordinary citizen may not know the difference between the Defence Medal and the Service Medal, but somebody who has received one certainly ought to! How many points do you take off a Liberal candidate for being a dumb nonentity Kevin? Not many I expect.Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78900413160698996332018-07-24T19:16:41.575+10:002018-07-24T19:16:41.575+10:00Thank you once again for a very detailed analysis ...Thank you once again for a very detailed analysis that is fairly easy for us political junkies to follow my friendnobshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08553516052778208190noreply@blogger.com