tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6645099005606561046..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: 2022 House of Reps Summary Page And Vanilla PostcountsKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-25822917387618179312022-05-28T19:21:11.264+10:002022-05-28T19:21:11.264+10:00Ta, fixed. Under massive time stress this electio...Ta, fixed. Under massive time stress this election and the blooper count is rising.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-22733060822545537612022-05-28T19:16:27.983+10:002022-05-28T19:16:27.983+10:00Deakin is a Coalition seat at risk to Labor (best ...Deakin is a Coalition seat at risk to Labor (best case for Liberals is a hold not a gain), not a Labor seat at risk to the Coalition.Camhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17461014061093629814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78230409271809909952022-05-28T00:27:50.407+10:002022-05-28T00:27:50.407+10:00I wouldn't think so on current numbers as ther...I wouldn't think so on current numbers as there don't seem to be enough votes left; even the remaining absents breaking 55-45 would not be enough. But the postal flow to Sukkar has slowed down remarkably. Maybe if there are counting errors it could still happen. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-20468564613359473272022-05-27T23:40:49.255+10:002022-05-27T23:40:49.255+10:00Kevin, I note the ABC still has Deakin in doubt an...Kevin, I note the ABC still has Deakin in doubt and Sukkar's lead has reduced since you last looked at it. Any prospect of a boilover? Arkyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07657579577532223814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-2199107173141892512022-05-25T18:53:37.219+10:002022-05-25T18:53:37.219+10:00This comment has been removed by the author.Locmoohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17793729384847239760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-29359737497696054732022-05-25T17:28:42.014+10:002022-05-25T17:28:42.014+10:00Yes unless something very weird happens with absen...Yes unless something very weird happens with absents and dec prepolls. The flow on postals is weakening slightly as it nears the tail end and I don't think there will be enough to get it below 500 - absents will help Chaney, dec prepolls shouldn't hurt her much since she did OK on the regular ones.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-1335040847679775262022-05-25T17:17:53.283+10:002022-05-25T17:17:53.283+10:00Is Curtin still solid for Chaney? Postals are over...Is Curtin still solid for Chaney? Postals are overwhelmingly stronger for Liberals and Chaney only leads 50.9/49.1 at the moment.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03536933978795184627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-70764098634408094812022-05-23T16:21:00.994+10:002022-05-23T16:21:00.994+10:00I've been following Vic senate with interest. ...I've been following Vic senate with interest. Not sure if there have been some postals coming in but seems like Labor and Liberal have grown their shares marginally. We have:<br />UAP: 0.2968<br />ONP: 0.2030<br />Legalise Cannabis: 0.2338<br />Labor: 0.1930<br />LDP: 0.1676<br />LNP: 0.1418<br /><br />Seems like LNP must be an okay chance of getting above LDP and snowballing. There is also around 0.45 quota of smaller left/centre-left/centre parties that will go out before Labor (Greens, socialists, Fusion, Reason, Dems, DHJP), as well as a chunk in Shooters etc. so Labor must be a very good shot of getting ahead of Legalise Cannabis for a decent snowball of their own. They probably need LNP to get excluded before ONP/UAP maybe?<br />David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-51482909507299590902022-05-23T14:53:30.955+10:002022-05-23T14:53:30.955+10:00The preference flow required for either Labor or t...The preference flow required for either Labor or the Independent to win is around 85%; this will probably increase with more counting but in any case is impossible given that there are right-wing micro parties whose preferences will help the Liberals.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-35791920556931614842022-05-23T02:25:34.377+10:002022-05-23T02:25:34.377+10:00Hi Kevin, I'm struggling to understand why Wan...Hi Kevin, I'm struggling to understand why Wannon is not listed as in doubt by anyone. Can you help me with that? The 2PP count is Lib vs ALP, but the Independent is clearly going to finish second, and looks, to me at least, to have a chance of winning.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-3102824082237466732022-05-23T01:12:26.617+10:002022-05-23T01:12:26.617+10:00Looks like the standard old blaming of minor parti...Looks like the standard old blaming of minor parties for a major party's defeat has already started. Not sure if you've seen it, but this time it looks like right-leaning commentators complaining that the Coalition wasn't "right-wing" enough and lost voters to One Nation/Palmer's UAP/Liberal Democrats.Ethanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07226942488996369403noreply@blogger.com