tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6607099262636757249..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: 2018 Victorian State Election IntroKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-60473837224705968172018-10-28T18:49:07.405+11:002018-10-28T18:49:07.405+11:00My own seat of Pascoe Vale might be interesting. T...My own seat of Pascoe Vale might be interesting. Two local Moreland councillors (a current and former Mayor, both of whom represent the areas covered by Pascoe Vale) are running as Independents. Oscar Yildiz in particular has been extremely active and visible in the area over the past few months. Mark Mulcairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08483740999986680525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-10392720348172462732018-10-27T07:53:22.109+11:002018-10-27T07:53:22.109+11:00Hi Kevin,
In terms of seats to watch, you've ...Hi Kevin,<br /><br />In terms of seats to watch, you've got the obvious ones (maybe add that Frankston and Carrum are high priority targets for the Libs), but with regard to Morwell in particular - I'll throw in a few sidenotes that may be of interest:<br /><br />Firstly, Morwell has a wildcard candidate in former accidental federal senator Ricky Muir, who is standing for the Shooters Etc Party. In the absence of One Nation, he should draw a fair chunk of the far right vote, and will also draw plenty of first prefs from people around the Heyfield etc who otherwise would vote Nationals.<br /><br />Secondly, the Labor vote in Morwell is likely to drop this time around due to local issues - namely with the closure of the Heyfield Timber Mill and the Hazelwood brown coal power station. However, they've preselected a former Hazelwood worker as the candidate, which may mitigate the latter part of that somewhat. <br /><br />Thirdly, Tracie Lund is runnign as an independent again. She's tried and failed to get preselected as the ALP candidate here a few times now. Last election she pulled about 10%<br /><br />Overall, if you add the above that there is both a Lib candidate and a Nationals candidate standing, if Russell Northe does end up standing again, you may in Morwell see 5 candidates with a decent chunk, no clear top two declared on the night, and a long and messy preference count...<br /><br />---<br /><br />One other minor note for a further seat - Darryn Lyons is running as an independent in Geelong, at least partly out of spite from being sacked as Mayor by the state government. He's probably too controversial a figure to win the seat, but he will pull a decent minority of the local vote and may be enough of a wildcard to cause Labor to lose an otherwise safe seat.Xia Laoshihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08501209445031918486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-85059845305378071702018-10-26T23:15:02.664+11:002018-10-26T23:15:02.664+11:00Morwell has points to note.
Labor did well off the...Morwell has points to note.<br />Labor did well off the back off the mine fire last time around but also had a strong campaign and a swing back to them in what had traditionally been a safe Labor seat. They were scuttled in the end by the CFMEU favouring an independent over Labor.<br />Northe is still likely to run and should get a reasonable following (>10%) and the Nationals now face a three cornered contest with the Liberals free to contest under the coalition agreement. <br />Labor will be blamed for the closure of the Hazelwood Power Station during this term of government and this will make it difficult for them to hold the ground that they gained in 2014.<br />There are also (at least) two high profile minor/independent candidates contesting (along with the incumbent who will presumably run as an indepenedent).<br /><br />In brief...good luck picking that one!Blogger 1https://www.blogger.com/profile/01344673845999808224noreply@blogger.com