tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6365806449689212634..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Tasmania 2021: What Was The Point Of This Election?Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-56990737068776545042021-05-19T00:32:10.087+10:002021-05-19T00:32:10.087+10:00If I was a voter in Windermere who supported indep...If I was a voter in Windermere who supported independents being a major force in the Legislative Council, I would be considering challenging the result on election spending/party campaigning grounds.T0000000000001https://www.blogger.com/profile/05135088419363685867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-60953475886363030172021-05-18T23:50:11.477+10:002021-05-18T23:50:11.477+10:00The Greens do often lay on talk of their successes...The Greens do often lay on talk of their successes with a trowel. Their worst result this century was last time, so second worst is an improvement. It does mean that the extent of Greens` poor result last time was not an indication of collapse but of an ALP policy (on pokies) that attracted Green voters. The Greens faced more competition than previously in Clark/Denison, with competition for dissatisfied ALP voters from Johnson and for teal voters from Hickey but their vote still went up.<br />T0000000000001https://www.blogger.com/profile/05135088419363685867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-74896587314851517692021-05-18T23:35:02.151+10:002021-05-18T23:35:02.151+10:00Yes even a very small primary vote difference in W...Yes even a very small primary vote difference in Windermere might have shifted the results (the view seems to be Smith would have won had he got into second, though I've seen no figures in support of it). So I've added a note to that effect. <br /><br />Re parliamentary expansions, the metric I use to cater for that is the proportion of seats held by the government, which in both cases increased slightly. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78445077158414661382021-05-18T23:21:01.360+10:002021-05-18T23:21:01.360+10:00Non-first term same party governments not loosing ...Non-first term same party governments not loosing seats:<br /><br />The Victorian Parliament expanded in both 1967 and 1976 , although the LCP/Liberal government (Country Party on the crossbench) probably would have gained in a stable Parliament (although malapportionment was an issue, particularly in 1967).<br /><br />http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/states/vic/historic/1967assembly.txt<br /><br />http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/states/vic/historic/1976assembly.txt<br /><br />Legislative Council:<br /><br />I don`t think a Derwent result held on a different day would have been different. Windermere, however, is probably a different story. Given that Smith only missed out by 1.54%, a non-simultaneous election could well have seen him overtake the ALP candidate and get a higher rate of preferences than he ended up giving the ALP, with the Liberals getting a lower preference rate and having a slightly lower vote to start with.T0000000000001https://www.blogger.com/profile/05135088419363685867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-87405403528041325282021-05-18T22:47:09.024+10:002021-05-18T22:47:09.024+10:00The crowing from the Greens about their wonderful ...The crowing from the Greens about their wonderful results is weird. This is their second worst result this century. And interestingly, their second worst result in Clark/Denison this century. <br /><br />To carp and cry that "the Greens are back" seems a trifle premature. <br /><br />It seens, dare I say it, cultish. <br /><br />But I'm sure it's a great result for the local Green luminaries. There's always votes in (white supremacist) NIMBYism so Cassy will assured of a seat for life. Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08022638348673573172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-31768342883251417912021-05-18T11:14:24.615+10:002021-05-18T11:14:24.615+10:00This was a trick... Chance of reelection higher no...This was a trick... Chance of reelection higher now than normally scheduled.... So Confect a reason for an early election.... Did maddie really decide to join the libs after the election was called.... Not to mention Mr Brooks...? Maybe this is their last term.. <br />Should be larger parliament and fixed terms Mickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02784376200127303021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-64162811675947631112021-05-18T06:31:27.569+10:002021-05-18T06:31:27.569+10:00Thanks for the summary and stellar coverage as alw...Thanks for the summary and stellar coverage as always Kevin.<br /><br />I know the AJP pseph team has done a bit of work trying to map preference sources/destinations in previous elections. The expected patterns are usually evident (high flow to/from greens and left micros) but the flows aren’t super tight by any means. Plenty of strange preference sources/destinations making it clear voters don’t think in strict left/right terms (I.e. pious vegans voting Christians then AJP or visa versa).<br /><br />Likely just the adjacent column factor here more than anything, but good reminder that voters don’t always view/preference politics/parties in the way we logically think they would.Wombathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12512072528609177488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-15565628361777651372021-05-17T16:16:39.250+10:002021-05-17T16:16:39.250+10:00I think she is a big part of the reason. I think ...I think she is a big part of the reason. I think loss of incumbency in the seat and not having a candidate with a high existing profile are also relevant. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-64117082795217772802021-05-17T16:13:42.351+10:002021-05-17T16:13:42.351+10:00You often say that Tasmanian politics is more abou...You often say that Tasmanian politics is more about the individual candidates than the parties they're running for. I think Janie Finlay is probably the reason for the decline in the Green vote in Bass. Rachelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14862888682626962441noreply@blogger.com