tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6270312771889314891..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: New England Washup and Bennelong By-Election PreviewKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-735542699156132052017-12-08T15:51:07.395+11:002017-12-08T15:51:07.395+11:00I agree with Edward Boyce's point, and would a...I agree with Edward Boyce's point, and would add that the Federal Implications make this by-election very much a referendum on the current LNP Federal Government, which New England was not.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09569372868831612962noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-53793048544911859692017-12-06T10:36:53.998+11:002017-12-06T10:36:53.998+11:00The Coalition's narrow majority may be helping...The Coalition's narrow majority may be helping them here. Voting out the government MP makes an early general election more likely, so it's effectively a vote for 2 elections within a few months. That's very different to the typical by-election, where the voters can give the government a kicking without risking an early election.Edward Boycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11992457293668557692noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-67492025242803454202017-12-04T12:58:25.867+11:002017-12-04T12:58:25.867+11:00Beattie, although defeated, did do a point better ...Beattie, although defeated, did do a point better than the national swing against Labor. They vary widely, eg here's four I can immediately think of:<br /><br />* Carmen Lawrence won Fremantle by-election 1994 with 1% swing to the government.<br />* John Fahey won Macarthur 1996 with a 12% swing.<br />* Richard Butler, a sitting Premier, tried to switch from state to federal politics at the Wakefield 1938 by-election but lost it with a record 20% swing.<br />* Former Tasmanian Premier Joseph Lyons stood down to run for federal parliament the year after and went on to be PM for seven years after switching party. When first elected, he was the first Labor winner of his seat.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-58038296827900433762017-12-04T12:07:30.905+11:002017-12-04T12:07:30.905+11:00What does the record show about former Premiers in...What does the record show about former Premiers in general running for Federal seats? I remember Peter Beattie disappointed in 2013joeldipopshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03556363371989936695noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-70071279949472494752017-12-04T09:12:19.530+11:002017-12-04T09:12:19.530+11:00Posted this on Tallyroom on Nov 17 under the Benne...Posted this on Tallyroom on Nov 17 under the Bennelong thread:<br /> "The Coalition has been very lucky with the two seats that had disqualified members. Both Joyce and Alexander are exceptionally popular in their electorates. Agree with FTB, can’t see any chance of Libs losing this, swing might even be less than 5-6%. Can’t compare it to a normal by-election as the sitting member is standing. Mistake on the part of Shorten to make a high profile contest out of this by running the former premier. Ryde had one of the biggest swings in the state against the former ALP state government, so dredging her up and reminding everyone is also not helpful to the ALP."Peterjk23https://www.blogger.com/profile/10996843671233378706noreply@blogger.com