tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6223021162455150503..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Tasmania Senate 2016 Button Press And AnalysisKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger59125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-16805286965619963112016-08-02T10:28:06.010+10:002016-08-02T10:28:06.010+10:00I ran the numbers as if JLN were excluded first so...I ran the numbers as if JLN were excluded first so their preferences go straight to the next person. That's as close as we can get to simulating the result without Lambie. The result is as expected, a comfortable ALP 3 inc Singh, 2 Liberal and 1 Green. The final race comes down to Singh on 45000 vs Colbert on 33000. Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16376873969892843893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-75552977835998676412016-07-31T11:20:36.410+10:002016-07-31T11:20:36.410+10:00Really interesting. Among the many disappointment...Really interesting. Among the many disappointments for the Greens campaign, failing to hit a quota in three states is one that could hurt them here. If the only difference is Rhiannon vs O'Neill, I suspect the Coalition will back the s282 outcome, not for any practical purpose (Coalition + Greens is likely a majority in 2019-2022 either way), but because it allows them to claim moral superiority and throw accusations at Labor if they try to wind back the pro-s282 position the Senate has adopted at least twice since the last DD.Alarichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17187841259314152786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-89848906519554354342016-07-30T21:56:16.306+10:002016-07-30T21:56:16.306+10:00Well we only really have Tasmania so far to go on....Well we only really have Tasmania so far to go on. Things will be a little more straightforward elsewhere because there's not the level of BTL.<br /><br />And voters can preference all over the place ATL, but if those parties have been eliminated, will easily be eliminated or your vote stays with your '1' vote what does it really matter?<br /><br />Eg if you voted 1 Green in Tasmania, and anywhere else 2 and so on it doesn't really matter because your vote went nowhere after McKim.<br /><br />That's 'almost' true for all Labor, Liberal, Green and PHON voters in Tasmania (except for the BTL stuff).<br /><br />When I talk about next (next) level it's all the parties trying to maximise any of their preferences that flow to OTHER least worst parties for them.<br /><br />I think the communication around preferencing and HTVs needs to go up a level to make parties' x% vote go further.Unachimbahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04873952842828774048noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-41027112957741612412016-07-30T16:17:39.015+10:002016-07-30T16:17:39.015+10:00OK chimba, sorry, I missed your point. But I thin...OK chimba, sorry, I missed your point. But I think _you're_ missing Kevin's point - there is no longer any point in _any_ party, major minor or in-between, playing preference games because under the new voting system almost everyone (except 15% of Liberal sheeple) ignore recommendations from the parties and (shock, horror!) make up their own minds! As citizens of a democracy should do. <br /><br />The best "game" seems to be to demote a popular candidate and hope that you benefit from what Kevin calls the Gininderra effect and I call the Barnaby Joyce effect (see 2004 Queensland Senate results) where instead of getting 1.2 or 1.5 quotas you have two who each get 0.6 or 0.75. Works sometimes, blows up in the party's face other times. Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-718343201097786032016-07-29T19:55:55.920+10:002016-07-29T19:55:55.920+10:00What makes you think micros are what I meant?
All...What makes you think micros are what I meant?<br /><br />All parties are going to have to learn how to use the new system.<br /><br />I suspect a major issue next time will be how to put PHON last in an optional preferential system.<br /><br />I'll have a look at who would have won if it had been a normal half Senate election when we know the final results. That might give an idea who will get recommend in preference deals next time.<br /><br />Unachimbahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04873952842828774048noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-19900400677789226422016-07-29T18:42:22.081+10:002016-07-29T18:42:22.081+10:00Excellent contribution, thanks for that.Excellent contribution, thanks for that.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-84198298994993003032016-07-29T18:18:17.562+10:002016-07-29T18:18:17.562+10:00I wasn’t able to find much analysis about differen...I wasn’t able to find much analysis about difference in outcomes between the order elected method and the S282 recount method, so I’ve done my own back of an envelope look at it (based on the assumption that the AEC doesn’t have to make any silly interpretations of legislation):<br /><br />TAS: 2LIB - 2ALP -1GRN -1JLN regardless of method used.<br /><br />WA: 3LIB - 2ALP – 1 - GRN looks pretty likely with either method.<br /><br />SA: Order elected method would be 2LIB – 2ALP – 2NXT. If the S282 recount method were used then the second NXT would be well short of quota prior to the redistribution of votes from unsuccessful candidates. However, they would also start off well ahead of the 1st GRN and 3rd LIB and I don’t think either would be likely to catch up. So, most likely no differences between methods in this state either, but plausible the Greens or Liberals could take a seat from NXT.<br /><br />QLD: Order elected would be 3LNP – 2ALP – 1PHON. S282 method could have the same outcome, or could see the 3rd LNP lose out to a GRN. Prior to redistribution of votes from unsuccessful candidates those two candidates would start out pretty even. The 2nd ALP and PHON would start out below quota so would each soak up preferences before they could reach either the 3rd LNP or GRN. Could be close then.<br /><br />VIC: Order elected would be 3LNP – 2ALP – 1GRN. Again, this is a distinct possibility under a recount also. However, I think Hinch would have a reasonably good shot at depriving the LNP of their 3rd senator. Plausible he could take it from a Green instead, but doubtful.<br /><br />NSW: Order elected would be 3LNP – 3ALP. For a recount the Greens would start out well ahead of the 3rd ALP, LDP and PHON and in my opinion would likely stay there to take a seat from the ALP for a 3LNP – 2ALP – 1GRN result. However, the Green and the 3rd LNP do start out far below quota so something surprising happening cannot be entirely discounted. <br /><br />Order elected:<br />16 LNP, 13 ALP, 3 GRN, 2NXT, plus Jacqui Lambie and Pauline Hanson<br /><br />Recount<br />13-16 LNP, 12 ALP, 3-6GRN, 1-2NXT, 0-1 Hinch, plus Lambie and Hanson<br /><br />It’s a distinct possibility then that the only difference between the two methods would be whether Lee Rhiannon or Deborah O’Neill gets a six-year term in NSW. If it came down to such a personality contest then I suspect O’Neil would win, as the ALP would back their own and the LNP are not big fans of Rhiannon. Rhiannon’s best hope then would be for differences in outcome between the two methods in other states. <br /><br />If the s282 recount method also deprived the LNP of two long-term senators, giving one each to Hinch and the Greens, then that would pose a dilemma for the ALP, who may be the key swing vote on which method is used. <br /><br />The arithmetic of the 2019-2022 Senate is likely to mean that the ALP will need the support of the Greens on any motion opposed by the LNP; The only question being how many additional crossbenchers they would need on board and the number of crossbenchers to choose from. Switching out two LNP for a Green and Hinch would reduce the number of crossbenches needed by one and increase the pool to choose from by one. The loss of O’Neil to a Green would not influence the maths of this at all. So despite loosing a Senator under the S282 recount method, the ALP would find themselves better able to achieve their legislative goals. Doing so, however, would come at quite a cost to the ALP. One less Senator for three years means less funding, staffers losing their jobs and one less Senator to do the party’s work. Personally I think the ALP would be wise to give up a Senator if it meant the LNP gave up two, but I suspect the spoils of office would be too enticing. Hans Molotovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05321336376364105527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-14951453056140931372016-07-29T09:46:36.016+10:002016-07-29T09:46:36.016+10:00chimba, I await many _less_ preference games at th...chimba, I await many _less_ preference games at the next election. I presume some micros exist because they really think their issue needs to be pushed by a separate party, but a big part of their motives must be the hope that they can pump some preferences on to other people. Now they all know that doesn't happen, I wonder how many will quietly fold their tents? Anybody want to run a sweep on that? To start it off, I say half of them.Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-42975870138967323232016-07-29T00:03:43.939+10:002016-07-29T00:03:43.939+10:00I've been helpfully advised by a politically e...I've been helpfully advised by a politically experienced reader that a former State Minister may apply to the State Governor to retain the prefix, but McKim has not applied to do so yet. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-7058015487490695612016-07-28T22:42:11.198+10:002016-07-28T22:42:11.198+10:00I await next (next) level preference games at the ...I await next (next) level preference games at the next election.<br /><br />Unachimbahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04873952842828774048noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-72710767948607987182016-07-28T22:16:06.184+10:002016-07-28T22:16:06.184+10:00Lol
Well, it could have just been any 50%+1 who g...Lol<br /><br />Well, it could have just been any 50%+1 who got together and just decided that they wanted the six year terms. <br /><br />Perhaps if it had been a hung parliament some weird alliance in the Senate would be more likely.<br /><br /><br />Id love someone to say 'Lets put Abetz on three years just because he got all those #58s!'Unachimbahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04873952842828774048noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-30336804385030796472016-07-28T21:28:42.941+10:002016-07-28T21:28:42.941+10:00Given that Bartlett broke a specific commitment no...Given that Bartlett broke a specific commitment not to form a coalition government with the Greens, I think he was quite right not to call himself Honourable during his inglorious premiership.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13123271067640069925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-69704245846121602412016-07-28T21:27:28.028+10:002016-07-28T21:27:28.028+10:00I actually ran this as an exercise a few hours ago...I actually ran this as an exercise a few hours ago before getting distracted. Rather than use the Liberal HTV that hardly anyone followed, I replaced each Colbeck BTL with an individual randomly selected duplicate of a Liberal ATL. No surprises for Colbeck - as expected he fell even further short of McCulloch. <br /><br />I did get McCulloch very narrowly beating McKim. However I suspect that's an artifact of the different voter pools. I figure Colbeck possibly attracts a Liberal demographic slightly less likely to preference One Nation. A better option might have been to replace his BTLs with ATLs that tried to follow his BTL preferences, but that's more work than I'm inclined to put into this particular exercise!Alarichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17187841259314152786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-65967790908753861722016-07-28T21:22:59.389+10:002016-07-28T21:22:59.389+10:00Correct. It's quite possible McKim decided to...Correct. It's quite possible McKim decided to not use the title following the lead of David Bartlett who quite specifically refused to use it while Tasmanian Premier.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-20714973473400351822016-07-28T21:19:26.939+10:002016-07-28T21:19:26.939+10:00I wrote this in Crikey today: "Even so, it...I wrote this in Crikey today: "Even so, it's surprising to observe that fewer than one-in-ten Liberal voters chose to be guided by the party's card -- which, remarkably, recommended a sixth preference for Labor -- while the share of Labor voters that did so barely even registered." The reason I used vague wording at the end is that I'd done the calculation and couldn't believe my eyes. Good to have it confirmed.pollbludgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06043743794641046018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-41974586736529271672016-07-28T21:15:06.763+10:002016-07-28T21:15:06.763+10:00No, she's never been a federal Parl Sec, only ...No, she's never been a federal Parl Sec, only a shadow. Dick Adams was also "The Hon" as a result of having been a Tas state minister. I think McKim must have decided he didn't want to use the title.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13123271067640069925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-37565474819141443682016-07-28T21:12:03.775+10:002016-07-28T21:12:03.775+10:00While I have no intention of starting a blog, I en...While I have no intention of starting a blog, I ended up digging into this on a scale that wouldn't have fit in your comments section. My poorly edited and half-formed thoughts are <a href="http://deanashley.blogspot.com.au/2016/07/questions-regarding-section-282-senate.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>. Alarichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17187841259314152786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-14886472935337703192016-07-28T20:43:23.138+10:002016-07-28T20:43:23.138+10:00I believe that in the federal arena the title is a...I believe that in the federal arena the title is applied based on past federal positions and that Singh qualifies for the title (permanently) by having been a parliamentary secretary.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-89954927451569821542016-07-28T17:21:17.628+10:002016-07-28T17:21:17.628+10:00Both Lisa Singh and Nick McKim are former state mi...Both Lisa Singh and Nick McKim are former state ministers. Why is she The Honourable and he not? ACAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13123271067640069925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-44914663416393491672016-07-28T17:02:30.230+10:002016-07-28T17:02:30.230+10:00All votes a candidate has collected are passed on ...All votes a candidate has collected are passed on as a surplus. But because of Inclusive Gregory, the values become distorted and the Labor ticket votes swamp the surplus compared to all the other votes that Bilyk has. By weighting those are mainly 1 above the line ALP votes, but the only choices left for them are Green, One Nation and exhaust. For the original breakup of Labor votes see David Barry's explorer which I've posted a link to now above the table. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-91272871873899822332016-07-28T16:49:35.005+10:002016-07-28T16:49:35.005+10:00Kevin - can you have a go at explaining which vote...Kevin - can you have a go at explaining which votes actually get passed on in surplus votes. Eg Bilyk - Greens 39.5, ON 22.9 rest exhaust. That seems to have a bias towards later collected voters from other parties as distinct from an average of all the Labor votes plus later collected votes from elected/eliminated candidates?Wakefieldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09727720240732796445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-82866539270616663862016-07-28T16:42:45.215+10:002016-07-28T16:42:45.215+10:00No, they were preferencing five micro-parties, all...No, they were preferencing five micro-parties, all of which were actually excluded before them. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-33647291851714200612016-07-28T15:27:24.936+10:002016-07-28T15:27:24.936+10:00Hi Kevin, regarding your latest update with real p...Hi Kevin, regarding your latest update with real preference flows - could you please explain what you mean by Exhaust in the "HTV" column for Sex/HEMP? Were they the only ones advocating "1 Only" in Tas?SgtThursdayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05024564684767917440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-15330810583410438502016-07-28T14:39:40.107+10:002016-07-28T14:39:40.107+10:00Ta, I will investigate when I get back from the de...Ta, I will investigate when I get back from the declaration of the polls. Michael Maley and I have also been discussing these ambiguities.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-81635481491671947572016-07-28T14:24:55.331+10:002016-07-28T14:24:55.331+10:00It's not simple to do it exactly. But it seem...It's not simple to do it exactly. But it seems from the S 282 simulation done by Alaric that the answer should be the same as for that (2-2-1-1). <br /><br />We know that 18% of Lambie's vote leaked straight out of the ticket on her election, which puts the vote for JLN sans Lambie at 6.8%. But my suspicion is that if it was a JLN ticket sans Lambie it would not get anything like the ATL vote of a JLN ticket with Lambie, and that the results of this election as applied to a half-Senate without Lambie would be 3 Labor including Singh 2 Liberal 1 Green.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.com