tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6104348948920126934..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Poll Roundup: Well That Wasn't Much Of A HoneymoonKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-58218830794934919352018-11-16T22:33:59.277+11:002018-11-16T22:33:59.277+11:00May is the last possible date for a half-Senate an...May is the last possible date for a half-Senate and a House election at the same time. However if the Government chooses to separate the two it could have a half-Senate by May and a House election as late as November. This would be foolish, but it would take something like that for the government to go beyond three years and make itself comparable to other governments that did so.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-9732419192234748912018-11-16T20:41:15.234+11:002018-11-16T20:41:15.234+11:00Ah I see, I got a bit mixed up there. So it's ...Ah I see, I got a bit mixed up there. So it's only when the State government is the same government as the Federal government that the correlation exists? That makes more sense to be honest.<br /><br />And yeah, sorry, that's what I meant. Over full term. Which is what this government is doing, isn't it? The last possible election date is ~may when they're arguing for it. Or at least that's what I've been told.Kasey Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17183320601719206423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-64514534078625410292018-11-15T01:22:15.982+11:002018-11-15T01:22:15.982+11:00I don't think voters vent as much about federa...I don't think voters vent as much about federal issues on state oppositions as state governments, eg there isn't a correlation between federal government polling and the performance of governments of the opposite party at state level. In the case of NSW if the federal election isn't held before that, then if there is a serious venting by voters (which would cause NSW to be lost) I'd expect that to flow over into recriminations that affected the federal campaign. I think there's a fair bit to be said for the federal government going before NSW if possible, say in early March.<br /><br />Governments that go substantially over full term have tended to lose.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-2454427622955874382018-11-14T20:01:42.460+11:002018-11-14T20:01:42.460+11:00Considering there are state elections coming up in...Considering there are state elections coming up in NSW and Victoria prior to the next Federal election, is it possible that all the angst and built up dislike of the Federal Government could be spent in those state elections? Providing a more respectable outcome for the Federal Government in those states?<br /><br />Also, historically speaking, aren't Governments that force themselves to full-term usually on the losing end of things? I've heard there is a correlation there.<br /><br />Cheers,Kasey Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17183320601719206423noreply@blogger.com