tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6100430438914838633..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: The Importance Of Keeping #politas On TopicKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-7822023602765138062020-06-26T14:28:44.045+10:002020-06-26T14:28:44.045+10:00FTR, #taspol was originally Tas PoliceFTR, #taspol was originally Tas PolicePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01327251958560498526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-20122296614593355592018-07-19T11:56:17.867+10:002018-07-19T11:56:17.867+10:00To explain that, the AEC does count first preferen...To explain that, the AEC does count first preferences for all candidates on election night, and that is the first thing that is done in the booths - the primary count happens first, then the preference count later in the night. <br /><br />However, as people want to know who is going to win, the AEC also counts an initial two-person count between the two candidates who it thinks will be the final two. So in Braddon we will know how many voters preferred Labor over Liberal and however many preferred Liberal over Labor - which unless something very strange happens will decide the final result.<br /><br />Sometimes it happens that the AEC has picked the wrong two final candidates. If this is the case, it makes no difference. If it is obvious, the AEC can re-align the preference count to the right two candidates. But even if it is not obvious, at the end of the counting the AEC does a rigorous distribution of preferences where it eliminates the last candidate, then the second last and so on to confirm the winner.<br /><br />The choice of two parties to do the initial preference count between has no impact on the outcome whatsoever. It is just a convenience to try to speed up public knowledge of who is going to win.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-12672604408051805682018-07-18T22:26:16.320+10:002018-07-18T22:26:16.320+10:00Gavin Pearce was one, local businessman, Wynyard R...Gavin Pearce was one, local businessman, Wynyard RSL president, on the board of Yolla Producers a local ag supply co-op, Libs had had him out and about in the blue tie a fair bit over the last 8 months or so. The other ones name eludes me right now (I think it's old age, but maybe I just don't care), but he was not a complete nobody, perhaps even better name recognition than Pearce, especially towards the eastern end of the electorate.<br /><br />While I have your attention, how fair is the process of starting the vote counting by only using the first prefs of the two parties the AEC picks out as being most likely to win? DO you get a different result if you do first prefs for all candidates instead as a first round?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03325505585524573771noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-84448605272928306052018-07-17T23:10:34.869+10:002018-07-17T23:10:34.869+10:00Who were the far better candidates than Whiteley? ...Who were the far better candidates than Whiteley? (Not that Whiteley is a very good candidate but at least he has name recognition.)<br /><br />I think it's very difficult for Garland to win because of the even split of major party primaries (it is more difficult than Denison 2010 when Wilkie won, and even that was very close) and also because his platform is similar to the Greens. But I think he could do very well and have an impact on the outcome. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-8530047161682137312018-07-17T22:24:44.220+10:002018-07-17T22:24:44.220+10:00I agree with Barry. It is tiresomely repetitive, m...I agree with Barry. It is tiresomely repetitive, mostly completely inane, and I rarely bother.<br /><br />On another subject, what is your estimate of the odds of an upset in Braddon? The libs have picked a dud in Whitely when they had a choice of 2 far better candidates, Keay is unpopular due to her being the cause of a by election, and Garland gets 8500 odd facebook views within 24 hours of putting a post on fakebook, comes across as genuine, humble and pissed off with business as usual politics. The advocates circulation in 2010 was 23000 copies, and i know it has decreased since then considerably due to it being a poor clone of the Examiner.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03325505585524573771noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-76148892597999952562018-07-17T10:49:59.227+10:002018-07-17T10:49:59.227+10:00I gave up on twitter yonks ago for just this reaso...I gave up on twitter yonks ago for just this reason. I got tired of wearing out scroll wheels on my mouse.Barryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08664699802718952449noreply@blogger.com