tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6024358702127522527..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: New South Wales 2019: Final Lower House Results And Poll AccuracyKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-25338882827173231952019-05-23T01:26:14.565+10:002019-05-23T01:26:14.565+10:00Yes. They reached the 2PPs they did off absurdly s...Yes. They reached the 2PPs they did off absurdly strong preference flows to Coalition from very weak primaries. Their Coalition primary only twice exceeded 34 (in both cases being 36.) Whatever they were doing was very weird.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-91605002549645011612019-05-22T21:30:08.304+10:002019-05-22T21:30:08.304+10:00Another aspect of the Clive Palmer media spend is ...Another aspect of the Clive Palmer media spend is that availability of media spots (tv, radio, print and billboards) would have dried up and alternatives would have become less visible or prime spots more expensive - this may have caused a dynamic change which favoured parties that did grassroots local campaigning - perhaps Labor were so over confident that the Kool-aid was drunk and they pressure relieved from the pedal....and local campaigning suffered or became less "genuine"....viewbuildhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16183512741734270478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-39127791091179808622019-05-22T18:39:01.639+10:002019-05-22T18:39:01.639+10:00Are we even sure any more that YouGov-FiftyAcres w...Are we even sure any more that YouGov-FiftyAcres was off? I mean, their polls were a bit better for the Coalition, which was also the case at the election.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-5122568268049643322019-05-12T14:05:12.350+10:002019-05-12T14:05:12.350+10:00NSWEC actually make data available for every 2CP p...NSWEC actually make data available for every 2CP pairing, which lets you calculate the condorcet winner in each seat (if you want to go full wonk).<br /><br />It also confirms that the Nats would have won a Green vs Nat top 2 in Lismore, and only the Shooters were in a position to win Barwon and Murray (despite non affiliated "put Nats last" campaigns in the seats).Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03536933978795184627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-57208240263561573622019-05-12T11:02:20.946+10:002019-05-12T11:02:20.946+10:00Yes, of the three seats won by Shooters, Barwon ha...Yes, of the three seats won by Shooters, Barwon had a massive 2PP swing to Labor (hence the brown dot close to the heavy line), Orange had an above average swing and Murray had no swing.<br /><br />The main difference there is the behaviour of those Shooters preferences that didn't exhaust, which were fairly even in Orange, about 68% to Labor in Barwon and about 40% to Labor in Murray.<br /><br />This pattern occurs in seats where Shooters were excluded across the state too - the average split was very close to even between the two but in specific seats it could be quite strongly one way or the other. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-14246373162016178402019-05-12T10:49:41.372+10:002019-05-12T10:49:41.372+10:00for non classic contests look at 2pp... Barwon bas...for non classic contests look at 2pp... Barwon based on alp/nat 2pp was 52/48 natsMickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02784376200127303021noreply@blogger.com