tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6001850250071716397..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: 2021 Tasmanian State Election Guide: ClarkKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-68678968787490088122021-04-29T14:06:34.840+10:002021-04-29T14:06:34.840+10:00I would preference literally any other person on t...I would preference literally any other person on the ticket over Behrakis.Aaronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08469843804108625985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-28504458576010478412021-04-27T13:04:37.061+10:002021-04-27T13:04:37.061+10:00Hobart Not highrise has looked at the actions of t...Hobart Not highrise has looked at the actions of the four City of Hobart elected members who are standing in Clark --> www.hobartnothighrise.com.au<br />Brian Corr, President, Hobart Not Highrise Inchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18137972885377161639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-6676840949302925652021-04-23T22:40:42.028+10:002021-04-23T22:40:42.028+10:00On the Fontcast today I heard that she was making ...On the Fontcast today I heard that she was making serious inroads in the south of the electorate and had more signs through Taroona etc than Hickey did. I also saw a few of her signs weeks ago in West Hobart. I think especially that she'll take votes from voters who switched from Greens to Labor over Labor's pokies policy in 2018 - if they were frustrated with the Greens in the first place, they can now go to her instead of going back. Whether she could take enough from the Greens to make them lose is another question - I think I am more open to this possibility than a lot of people (it seems to be generally being taken for granted that O'Connor will romp back in; I think she probably will win but might not). Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-69089779489088734902021-04-23T22:28:07.278+10:002021-04-23T22:28:07.278+10:00Hi Kevin
I think you've remarked before that ...Hi Kevin<br /><br />I think you've remarked before that the Green vote can get very soft in the face of an independent candidate who makes nice noises about wind farms, pokies, and other middle class white people concerns. <br /><br />Do you think Kristie Johnson, being exactly this candidate, might take votes from the Greens? Or is she too far past the flanno curtain for the Taroona Greens to switch? Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08022638348673573172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-69297640236843134322021-04-17T18:54:34.200+10:002021-04-17T18:54:34.200+10:00I've deleted a comment here because it made cl...I've deleted a comment here because it made claims of fact about a candidate's policies for which no evidence was provided and I could not establish the identity of the author. If it helps users can choose to share their profiles, I think via https://www.blogger.com/edit-profile.g , and this may get rid of the issue of comments appearing as Unknown. <br /><br />If attacks are substantiated with evidence so I can verify that they're well founded then I'm content, albeit not overjoyed, for them to be anonymous. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-71276559376436655962021-04-17T18:28:16.671+10:002021-04-17T18:28:16.671+10:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01855294203890930042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-17770999423547712362021-04-12T17:42:16.476+10:002021-04-12T17:42:16.476+10:00I think Labor has really done themselves over here...I think Labor has really done themselves over here by seemingly convincing themselves that a second seat in Clark is too hard (as evidenced by their low-profile support crew - Clark and Mitchell don’t even have Facebook pages - and practically non-existent campaign besides Haddad).<br /><br />Labor should get two seats here, with or without Bacon - it was their best seat in 2018 by far, the only one where they beat the Liberals, and they’d have to back very far not to win a second seat. In addition I’d note that I’d say that while Bacon was popular, most of his voters were probably people who would vote Labor anyway, unlike Haddad’s.<br /><br />Even though Hickey and especially Johnson are high profile and would eat into Labor’s vote a bit, I think if it ends up 2-1-1-1 and the Liberals are on two and Labor is on one, I think Labor can only blame themselves for making their low expectations come true. It wouldn’t have been hard for the government to be pushed into minority with Johnson winning in Clark, but now it seems much less likely.<br /><br />It’s odd really considering that Labor seems to have made some reasonably strong candidate choices in other seats - Keay, Finlay, eventually Winter, arguably Batt and Lambert, but they clearly had no one on the bench for Clark.mstjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14948493073817454367noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-79905073882776451142021-04-11T21:49:32.636+10:002021-04-11T21:49:32.636+10:00Lisa Singh does not reside in Tasmania at the mome...Lisa Singh does not reside in Tasmania at the moment.Bridgewaterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08095123507930415187noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-57296953161146643212021-04-10T14:40:04.537+10:002021-04-10T14:40:04.537+10:00In 1956 a Labor MP quit the party and joined the L...In 1956 a Labor MP quit the party and joined the Liberals and was elected as a Liberal with a massive increase in his personal vote. I don't know if that will happen again in this case. If it comes to a fight between her and Simon Behrakis for a seat I could still see Green voters preferencing her. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-77339947632267936402021-04-10T14:37:03.115+10:002021-04-10T14:37:03.115+10:00I don't entirely rule out 1-1-1-1-1 (or it mig...I don't entirely rule out 1-1-1-1-1 (or it might also be called 1-1-1-2) but I would be surprised if both major parties collapsed to such an extent and there was enough vote to elect the Greens and both the indies. <br /><br />I think the left to right advantage is very small. For example the Socialist Alliance polled only 0.5% in Franklin in 2014 even with the advantage of drawing the leftmost column. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-73011697219646929002021-04-10T14:24:30.002+10:002021-04-10T14:24:30.002+10:00Hi Kevin, thank you so much for all your analysis....Hi Kevin, thank you so much for all your analysis. Two questions, firstly do you think there is any possibility of 1-1-1-1-1 with Johnston and Hickey both getting up. Secondly, does being closer to the left of the ballot provide any benefit due to left to right reading.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11263637940833173309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-30647054632285038122021-04-07T11:38:48.290+10:002021-04-07T11:38:48.290+10:00can you explain your reasoning as to why Oglivie m...can you explain your reasoning as to why Oglivie may win as a liberal...... I suspect even die hard liberals would be suspicious of her..... and no prefernces from the others..... labor or the greens<br />Mickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02784376200127303021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-50620277941854136432021-04-05T09:56:34.504+10:002021-04-05T09:56:34.504+10:00Quote from Kristie Johnston Press Release Feb 27 ....Quote from Kristie Johnston Press Release Feb 27 ... <br />“Labor or Liberal, each is as bad as the other. Party politicians seem more focussed on their own careers or slavishly following ideologies that have no relevance to the communities I represent. They are woefully out of touch.”<br /><br />Perhaps she will explain how a government of her persuasion will function.<br /><br />Complex society needs cooperation and specialisation. Her Independent Party colleague Mr Wilkie runs the same line having fallen out with both parties he started out with.<br /><br />Elsewhere I referred to cultivated apathy and cynicism of the political process and the above example emerged.<br /><br />The glossy pamphlets and somewhat confected scandals don't cut it for me; more detail and sophistication is required.<br /><br />Not sure whether the magic train will become an issue again, if so can we PLEASE have some proper transport analysis to integrate it with our current inefficient transport setup.invocruxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00649132319778221404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-62183084984079261802021-04-04T10:51:50.048+10:002021-04-04T10:51:50.048+10:00That would be interesting! I have not heard of her...That would be interesting! I have not heard of her having any further political ambitions since the 2019 Senate defeat. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-25682915612773594072021-04-04T10:16:51.817+10:002021-04-04T10:16:51.817+10:00What're the chances of Lisa Singh running? I&#...What're the chances of Lisa Singh running? I'd have thought she'd easily get in if she was on ticket.George Graemehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00422100837854676227noreply@blogger.com