tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post5720149223296813850..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Getting Ginninderraed: Another For the Hare-Clark TextbooksKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-58568575155847535562020-11-02T00:32:50.817+11:002020-11-02T00:32:50.817+11:00Not happy with the Data entry model of Hare Clarke...Not happy with the Data entry model of Hare Clarke .There is nothing more satisfying that actually throwing paper to achieve a result and watching the pollies squirm with incomprehension. Brenton was undone by the dev/burnie partisanship. he got his start from 1's from dev but the good folks from up the rest of the coast consistently put him at 26 and consequently never collected from the subsequent counts. the best "Ginninderra" was another Braddon count. Oldaker's surplus going away from Greg Peart to Michael Weldon, It brought on the Robson rotation.<br />PhilD LapoinyaAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07268525443242243764noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-65000170283192169402012-10-25T10:08:37.354+11:002012-10-25T10:08:37.354+11:00A nice description Kevin. I worked it out (at abou...A nice description Kevin. I worked it out (at about 3 am Sunday morning) because I have a system of 4 interlinked spreadsheets which applies the preference distribution from the Interim Distribution of electronic votes to the latest primary votes posted. As I looked through the recalculated spreadsheet I fully expected to see that Hunter had knocked out Berry as that was what everyone was predicting. So I was surprised to see Berry ahead of Hunter in the new spreadsheet at the point of elimination. And Berry was a lot of votes ahead of Hunter, so I knew unless there was a radical change in the distribution pattern in the total vote, then Berry was certain to be elected over Hunter.<br />In the day and a half after 3 am Sunday morning, life got in the way of publishing online a detailed analysis, so the credit for the first detailed analysis published online goes to my son's post on Facebook on Sunday morning. He followed this up with his question Sunday afternoon to the wonderful Antony Green, asking if 3 Labor in Ginninderra was a possibility. We will treasure Antony's reply "It seems very unlikely" , because he is such a guru on psephology and is so rarely wrong. We are very lucky in Australia to have a journalist who is such an expert on elections. (Or is it a psephologist who is a journalist!) With you leaving the Tasmanian Times Kevin, we're now down to one who does both roles. <br />The story of how Antony was nudged to reconsider his Sunday afternoon conclusion is a story for another day.<br />JohnCanb<br /> JohnCanbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15807909631450953180noreply@blogger.com