tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post5603245917091705123..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Poll Roundup: Mixed Start To Year For Struggling GovernmentKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-28909186289845388502019-02-18T21:54:44.027+11:002019-02-18T21:54:44.027+11:00Warringah Getup Poll
The poll was done about 2 we...Warringah Getup Poll<br /><br />The poll was done about 2 weeks ago. Our house is in there somewhere.<br />I calculate as follows:<br /> Prefs to<br />Candidate Reported %ages Lib Steggall<br />Lib 37.7 39.6% 39.6% <br />Steggall 22.3 23.4% 23.4%<br />ALP 15 15.8% 4% 12%<br />Greens 9.6 10.1% 3% 8%<br />Moylan Coombs 4.9 5.1% 1% 4%<br />Other 5.7 6.0% 4% 2%<br />Total 95.2 100% 51.3% 48.7%<br />Undecided 4.8 <br /><br />I have assumed high preference flows to Steggall from all but “Other”<br /><br />Abbott Wins<br /><br />The Getup figure for Abbott's primaries is quite believable, and he has been pulled deep into Tiger Territory, especially given the report that a poll commissioned by Moderate, very prominent, Liberals in the seat, put his Primaries at 25% (!). I think that report might have been a plant, but the source has a good reputation. <br /><br />The Steggall vote is very much lower than I would have expected, probably because Moylan- Coombs is getting some and because the poll was done only about 3 days after the Steggall launch. No Independent with fewer than 21% of the primaries has ever won a seat against the two majors. Steggall just gets past that. She needs a primary well into the high 20s to be competitive. Phelps won with 29%. <br /><br />It is worth noting here has been considerable argy-bargy from one of the Steggall support groups (Vote Tony Out) towards Moylan-Coombs. They are supposed to have buried the hatchet, but I am not sure where.<br />Geoff Lamberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01999702600433868733noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-92173510851465307182019-02-17T21:03:02.544+11:002019-02-17T21:03:02.544+11:00Hi Kevin,
Thanks for the IPSOS update.
David.Hi Kevin,<br /><br />Thanks for the IPSOS update.<br /><br />David.dedwardshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11754130418220136533noreply@blogger.com