tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post5334112956174377083..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Victorian Election: Final Aggregate And Seat ModelKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-44553019797331350592014-12-10T14:30:32.674+11:002014-12-10T14:30:32.674+11:00Yep, though not as many as I thought they'd ne...Yep, though not as many as I thought they'd need.<br /><br />The Liberal primary vote was down only a bit over 3%, when they had a margin of 4.7% over Labor. So there was likely also some tightening of preferences against them (with some voters who voted Labor-Liberal or Green-Liberal at the last election now putting the Liberals below both Labor and Green). But it looks like virtually all those who switched from voting 1 Liberal put the Greens ahead of the Liberals (whether as a #1 vote or otherwise).<br /><br />One thing that was wrong with my coment above was that it actually turned out to be slightly easier for the Greens to win on Labor preferences than the other way around; if anyone had told me the Greens would get 87% off Labor before the election I would have told them they were dreaming. In hindsight it makes some sort of sense (Labor voters more likely to follow card, Labor candidate more appealling to left end of potential ALP support base and not to right, etc) But yes, there must have been a two-party swing of at least 4% and probably higher from the Liberals to the Greens. <br /><br />My suspicion is that the primary swing from the Liberals to the Greens is actually slightly higher than the number of votes the Liberals lost, and that what actually happened is that Labor lost primary votes to both the Liberals and the Greens in this electorate.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-73758434108487746832014-12-10T13:36:36.129+11:002014-12-10T13:36:36.129+11:00Looks like the. Greens must have picked up a lot o...Looks like the. Greens must have picked up a lot of Lib votes since they have taken the seat in Prahan.Christianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05991521451019514930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-22617274722092149592014-11-29T10:23:49.442+11:002014-11-29T10:23:49.442+11:00Yes these were their two target seats and there is...Yes these were their two target seats and there is some evidence that this sort of intensive doorknocking and conversation-starting model works (and that a lot of the old stuff largely doesn't anymore but people keep doing it anyway). <br /><br />The trouble with Prahran is that the natural Liberal vote is so high that knocking it down to the level where a Green could win on Labor preferences (not as easy as the other way round) would take a lot. Any vote the Greens took off Labor is only good for coming second so they'd need to be taking a lot from the Liberals to have a show.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-29430671246626553022014-11-29T10:03:59.459+11:002014-11-29T10:03:59.459+11:00I understand the Greens knocked 25,000 doors in Me...I understand the Greens knocked 25,000 doors in Melbourne and 20,000 in Prahran - so while it's clear that Melbourne is their best shot for a Lower House seat, I quite look forward to seeing how Prahran plays out and what sort of numbers they get for the effort they put in.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05947377166619293759noreply@blogger.com