tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post5285425162898076290..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Recent Polling In Four StatesKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-88838249829604662492014-10-05T15:54:19.348+11:002014-10-05T15:54:19.348+11:00I also think outsider caution about Morwell is mis...I also think outsider caution about Morwell is misplaced. Morwell is a very working-class area and had been safe Labor for donkeys years before neglect, a strong Nationals campaign, and a hopeless local member saw them grab the seat a few years back. The Nationals have benefited from incumbency and have done well to hold on as well as they have (in comparison to the Liberals in the similar Hunter region in NSW), but for the first time they've got local issues running against them and I'd be really surprised if it wasn't in play on election night.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04105527061986066269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-33354833201102541652014-10-03T18:28:56.462+10:002014-10-03T18:28:56.462+10:00The only NT polling I know of since the last elect...The only NT polling I know of since the last election is a Telereach poll of Greater Darwin in April:<br /><br />http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/support-is-waning-for-clp-poll/story-fnk0b1zt-1226889898956<br /><br />I am not sure how reliable Telereach are. However (i) that poll predates the defection of three CLP MPs to PUP and the subsequent return of one of them to the CLP (PUP only have two there now) (ii) there has been no polling of the outlying regions and I don't think there ever is any, even at election time.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-42153510512422085882014-10-03T18:19:01.539+10:002014-10-03T18:19:01.539+10:00I presume there is no NT polling? It would be inte...I presume there is no NT polling? It would be interesting to see how PUP is going there, given that they have a few state MPs. However, it is obviously a hard region to poll.Henry Schlechtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10010058958980876585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-80215510117427409832014-10-02T00:06:32.885+10:002014-10-02T00:06:32.885+10:00Thankyou! Local insights much appreciated.Thankyou! Local insights much appreciated.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-90911995249423338162014-10-01T23:47:08.180+10:002014-10-01T23:47:08.180+10:00Kevin,
I live adjacent to Ringwood State electorat...Kevin,<br />I live adjacent to Ringwood State electorate in Victoria, and it's certainly evident that both parties believe that it is in play. Unlike everywhere else in the eastern suburbs, there are masses of posters of the Liberal candidate (who is currently Member for the abolished seat of Mitcham). At the same time, the Labor candidate has opened a campaign office three months prior to election day. The swing required is a substantial 6.3%, compared to the neighbouring seat of Bayswater 6.8%. <br />On the face of it this might be misleading. The new Ringwood has been carved out of Mitcham and Warrandyte. The Liberals won Mitcham last time unseating a Minister in the Bracks and Brumby Governments. That meant that Labor ran a serious campaign in that electorate, whereas they were almost invisible in the rest of Ringwood, and in most of the neighbouring electorates. That suggests to me that the Bayswater margin is inflated and that relatively speaking the margin in Ringwood might be under-stated. That is of course trumped by the implications that internal polling suggests it's contestible.PJFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08664724463346713484noreply@blogger.com