tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post5275572075484975997..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: ReachTEL: The Campaign Has Changed NothingKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-75509327203399814082014-03-11T10:30:54.804+11:002014-03-11T10:30:54.804+11:00I think the larger number of candidates is likely ...I think the larger number of candidates is likely to slightly to modestly increase the exhaust rate in cases where a party's last candidate is excluded. This might slightly advantage the Liberals in Franklin if Green preferences exhaust at a higher rate than normal when Green #2 is cut. I expect a high exhaust rate of PUP votes.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-47107218263554069622014-03-11T10:23:27.121+11:002014-03-11T10:23:27.121+11:00Kevin do you think the electorate is more polarise...Kevin do you think the electorate is more polarised than usual in this election? Can you see the level of people just voting 1 to 5 being greater than last time around. Would the level of exhaust favour any particular party in the final result?David Mohrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17114992376845039444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-5596100821205286242014-03-09T21:17:46.941+11:002014-03-09T21:17:46.941+11:00How do you figure that one out David? The Greens h...How do you figure that one out David? The Greens have ( as you would expect ) presented a united front since the election was called and Mr Booth hasn't gone off script, and this small window in time is the only time we have observed a poll rise for the party in Bass. Besides, whilst I'm sure Mr Booths recalcitrant ways over the last 4 years were a genuine expression of his individuality, I am sure there was a broader strategy behind the scenes within the Green camp...a strategy for one voice to maintain the green 'rage' in order to placate the die hards, whilst sensible and dedicated MPs such as Mckim and O'Connor went to business in the tougher and more productive roles as ministers, conscious of consensus building, getting results and building up trust of the Greens in the broader community. The latter is very important!<br /><br />This hero worship of Kim Booth as the "real deal" is on par with some in the Labor movements adoration of Brenton Best as the "real deal". Booth at least has a bit of style but they are both serving a purpose for their respective parties , which seems not to be understood by some. But then again, it's really not meant to be! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-2213016917690229872014-03-09T20:58:25.109+11:002014-03-09T20:58:25.109+11:00It looks like a subset but there might be some oth...It looks like a subset but there might be some other explanation. I'd be interested to hear from anyone who was polled the Examiner's pulp mill questions to see if they also got the Mercury's schools and parks questions.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-45395820591161142982014-03-09T18:22:34.273+11:002014-03-09T18:22:34.273+11:00The similarity of The Mercury and The Examiner pol...The similarity of The Mercury and The Examiner polls is bizarre. Does that mean the Examiner poll was a subset of the Mercury poll? Did the Mercury pay more for a larger poll? I must admit I'm surprised at the size of the Green vote in Bass in this poll. Maybe it has to do with Kim Booth's distancing himself from the Labor/Green partnership.David Mohrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17114992376845039444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-21822296581384213732014-03-08T12:58:12.955+11:002014-03-08T12:58:12.955+11:00I'm not sure why conservative voters would be ...I'm not sure why conservative voters would be more likely to answer automated questions. It might for instance be argued that young voters would be more used to automated voice interaction. Calling or not calling mobiles is not an issue if your scaling is accurate as proven by Newspoll last election. Still, this election is a big test for how well robopolling works in Tasmania. It had some issues at the federal election (despite tipping all five seats correctly) but improvements seem to have been made.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-75390134983664362872014-03-08T12:54:26.981+11:002014-03-08T12:54:26.981+11:00In the 2002-2006 parliament (14-7-4) the Liberals ...In the 2002-2006 parliament (14-7-4) the Liberals and Greens were granted a sort of co-opposition status for resource purposes by Labor under Jim Bacon, and Peg Putt was sometimes called the Leader of the Greens Opposition. Something similar could be applied again. Labor did not repeat this arrangement under Lennon after 2006. (I think the decision was taken when it looked like the Libs might win only six seats.) To the extent that it's not covered by legislation it would be the government's call. There might be precedents in Queensland.<br /><br />Election debate participation in Tasmania isn't determined by being the official opposition or not as there is no regulatory body overseeing debates. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-44109704060622913032014-03-08T12:47:02.199+11:002014-03-08T12:47:02.199+11:00I don't think PUP have been consistently "...I don't think PUP have been consistently "anti-green" - although they've been gung-ho about "lockups" they've sent out extremely mixed messages on the pulp mill for example. My strong suspicion is that disaffected Labor voters unwilling to vote Liberal are the biggest source of the PUP vote. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-5537609290683987682014-03-08T11:48:36.798+11:002014-03-08T11:48:36.798+11:00I hung-up on the ReachTEL robot and I'm wonder...I hung-up on the ReachTEL robot and I'm wondering how many other people did. I have no evidence ReachTEL ring mobile phones although they claim they do. Potentially, there is a 20% distortion in their results as more conservative voters would tend to have landlines and answer questions asked by a robot.<br />The Examiner and Mercury have accepted the polls at face value and have extrapolated results accordingly.<br />On the face of it a Hodgman government seems likely and Dr Bonhams' analysis is excellent. Interestingly, the election coincides with a full moon. Of course this does not change the outcome but it could change peoples responses to it.<br />Tas_Maniahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16328390590265064458noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-50489742735868318052014-03-08T10:22:03.760+11:002014-03-08T10:22:03.760+11:00So who becomes the official Opposition if it is ti...So who becomes the official Opposition if it is tied 5-5? Surely there is only room for one; considering things such as parliamentary procedures, ceremonial duties, allowances staff wages and privileges, guaranteed placement in pre election debates (!) and probably a raft of other things I haven't thought of or that are unknown to me.....Who gets to make the call and under what criteria would they use? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-46800497844702324112014-03-08T09:56:35.321+11:002014-03-08T09:56:35.321+11:00Its interesting to see a slight increase in the Gr...Its interesting to see a slight increase in the Green vote in recent polls. It may be because the major parties and PUP have made great efforts in appearing as pro development, anti Green as possible. I also believe that people who move to Tasmania for lifestyle reasons tend to be attracted to the Greens. It may be also that the Greens are now by themselves on the left and votes continue to bleed from the ALP. Kevin, where do you believe PUP voters have come from as far as their previous voting patterns are concerned?David Mohrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17114992376845039444noreply@blogger.com