tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post4997387609974047335..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: What Kills State Governments: Age Or Canberra?Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-68888760063169557972021-01-25T00:46:53.851+11:002021-01-25T00:46:53.851+11:00Ta, I've fixed that and also noted that this a...Ta, I've fixed that and also noted that this article didn't have a link to its 2020 sequel, so I've added one at the top.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-85666279190728002622021-01-25T00:30:28.395+11:002021-01-25T00:30:28.395+11:00Hi Kevin,
Read this a while back, and came back to...Hi Kevin,<br />Read this a while back, and came back to it to show a friend the data backing up the hypothesis that a federal govt can tend to drag down their state counterpart. Just commenting to note that the link you've got to Antony Green's article is not working (I think ABC moved a lot of his posts after he got his own blog) - here's a working version:<br /><br />https://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-02/the-cycles-of-party-politics/9390008<br />Ethanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07226942488996369403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-24754565999931673552014-07-13T02:20:25.986+10:002014-07-13T02:20:25.986+10:00Done - edit added above. It is as you suspected.Done - edit added above. It is as you suspected.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-50130698282416080702014-07-07T01:46:53.895+10:002014-07-07T01:46:53.895+10:00I've not yet looked at this in detail but it h...I've not yet looked at this in detail but it has often been obvious enough in specific cases that the drag from very unpopular federal governments blows out state results. And that has been the case for a long time, eg Queensland 1974, Victoria 1992, SA 1993. So I'd expect to see a link between federal polling and state election results, the question being how strong that is. I'll have a look at that as well soon.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-842136735477650242014-07-07T00:01:37.915+10:002014-07-07T00:01:37.915+10:00I've thought for a while that the idea that th...I've thought for a while that the idea that the age of a state government excessively impacts it's chances of reelection to be rather ill supported. This research provides solid data!<br /><br />Have you considered whether the popularity of the federal government affects the reelection chances of state governments? Looking over the state elections since 1996 and comparing them the the federal government's polling average at the time suggests a potential correlation to me. All five state governments were not reelected when a federal government of their party was actively unpopular (NSW2011, QLD1998, QLD2012, WA2001, and Tas1998) while when the federal government was at least close in the polls only four of ten state governments were defeated (WA2008,SA2002, Vic1999, and Vic2010 but not QLD2009, WA1996, SA1997, SA2010, Tas2010, or Vic1996). Obviously there is a degree in subjectivity in drawing a line on "unpopularity" but it might be a worthwhile line of inquiry. <br /><br /> Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17878761151884270627noreply@blogger.com