tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post4703230920721490298..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Seat Betting Favourites Watch - July 3Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-6716562173172289682013-07-03T21:47:36.333+10:002013-07-03T21:47:36.333+10:00When the ReachTEL came out my impression was that ...When the ReachTEL came out my impression was that the polled gap was so large Lyons would probably not be held even with a leadership switch. I'm less convinced of that now as I think between the switch, the natural variation of such small samples and the possibility of a ReachTEL house effect, there's enough there to explain away nine points, provided that most of the bounce lasts. I still think the seat is at significantly greater risk than Franklin.<br /><br />I did expect the leadership bounce effect would be somewhat less in Tas than elsewhere. The swings in the two available post-switch samples were smaller than the national swing as expected but their sample sizes were tiny so more data needed. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-52968662617755551362013-07-03T15:33:14.063+10:002013-07-03T15:33:14.063+10:00You might be interested to know that the same mode...You might be interested to know that the same model with a 21 September election date gives the probabilities as: ALP win = 9.3%, Coalition win = 72.1%, hung parliament = 18.6%.<br /><br />The median number of ALP seats in this treatment is 70, with a mode of 72.<br /><br />Some of the differences between our models will also relate to the treatment of poll bias. Mine is calibrated off the last election. To the extend that polling agencies have changed their methodology significantly then this will affect the outcome.<br /><br />I'll quote my bias estimates in the next update.Julian Kinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09999443797525672413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-8908441261447532942013-07-03T15:26:24.967+10:002013-07-03T15:26:24.967+10:00I think that spread market is a pretty good reflec...I think that spread market is a pretty good reflection of (my) current expectations, and the expectation that there will be a brief peak in polls that will then collapse to a very uncertain degree, based upon how well or poorly Kevin (and Labor more broadly) handles the transition to power.<br /><br />Significant Labor loss to Marginal Labor Victory are now all possible.<br /><br />Locally I'd expect that the change makes Franklin into a likely hold, but that Bass, Braddon and Lyons will still switch. intuitivereasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444634755480881972noreply@blogger.com