tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post4491879138786361328..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Tasmania 2018: How Woodruff Won FranklinKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-34754196404139784142018-03-20T18:39:43.904+11:002018-03-20T18:39:43.904+11:00McKim - it's not that easy to find a scenario ...McKim - it's not that easy to find a scenario where the Greens lose in Tasmania. Even imagining a rock-bottom result like, say, 9%, that's still .63 quotas. I don't think any of the micro-parties will get over that, so the most likely way it would lose is being beaten by both majors. But that would require them to both get swings from the low 30s last time to, say, 37.5. <br /><br />SHY - on the SA Upper House figures she would have a shot. The SA Legislative Council figures convert for a half-Senate election to Lib 2.21 quotas, Labor 2.07, SAB 1.33, Green 0.42, Conservatives 0.25 etc. One of the majors or SAB could easily do better than that and beat the Greens, but the main point is that if what was NXT's two quotas collapses to one point not very much, then the Greens might not need a high vote to win.<br /><br />Thorpe - my guess would be Ged Kearneys don't grow on every tree and that the impact of the Bhathal issues will be less, but maybe if Labor focuses on stuff that matters to voters the Northcote result will be shown up as a by-election special. I'm not sure whether federal drag affects federal opposition party results re third parties in state seats or not, suspect usually not.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-1416726445893559882018-03-20T16:48:35.750+11:002018-03-20T16:48:35.750+11:00Using the recent results to add to predictions:
I...Using the recent results to add to predictions:<br /><br />Is Nick McKim at risk of losing his seat?<br /><br />Does Sarah Hanson Young have any chance of being reelected?<br /><br />Will Lidia Thorpe be reelected, and more broadly, does federal drag apply on the level of an individual seat? Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03536933978795184627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-44476366743479691582018-03-20T14:04:55.794+11:002018-03-20T14:04:55.794+11:00TEC has an explanation here: https://www.tec.tas.g...TEC has an explanation here: https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/Info/Publications/HareClark.html<br /><br />At each exclusion or surplus, the ballot papers being passed on each go to the next candidate on the voter's order who has not yet been elected or excluded, so the process is determined entirely by the choices of voters and there are no party preference tickets. <br /><br />One detail not covered there is the order of distribution of votes when a candidate is excluded. It starts with the candidate's full value votes (which can be their primary votes or votes they received from other excluded candidates) and then goes through the votes they received at reduced value (because they had been used as part of a surplus) starting with the highest values. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-43840012940259459672018-03-20T13:29:58.519+11:002018-03-20T13:29:58.519+11:00Thank you for this summary of how Rosalie Woodruff...Thank you for this summary of how Rosalie Woodruff was elected. Just to make comment about the Green result in South Australia. The Greens have always been low key in this state. It took a while to get someone elected to the Legislative Council but Mark Parnell and Tammy Franks have been able to keep getting elected in the 4 yearly election cycle. They have never been able to gain a full quota in their own right but manage to get preferences from like- minded smaller parties and some from the ALP. The emergence of SA Best meant that the one and only Murdoch Adelaide newspaper completely focused on the 3 way contest. The Greens 6% would definitely be their core vote because other swing voters would have been attracted to SA Best in particular. It is worth noting that Dignity who have had an 8 year Upper House MLC and the emerging Animal Justice Party both polled about 2% each and many of those voters WILL have preferenced the Greens Above the Line. The new voting system was NOT explained to the electorate. Only in the last week did the smaller progressive parties get the word out that it was so important to preference above the line. This new system heavily favours the 'old parties' They only want people to put a '1' which favours them, no distribution of any preferences. I would like to say that to Mark and Tammy's credit as elected Green MLC's that they have been excellent, hard-working and 'no dramas' representatives. Both Mark and Tammy represent different policy areas and both deserve their place in South Australia's political scene. BRENTONhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05209051549953833708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78161573056013356312018-03-20T11:07:01.997+11:002018-03-20T11:07:01.997+11:00This is a stupid question that every election-watc...This is a stupid question that every election-watcher should know, but I'm still learning. Can you explain (or just link to an explanation) how the distribution of votes happens when someone is elected or excluded?Joehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06931637841878329187noreply@blogger.com