tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post3786266540495286526..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Would Wood Waste Waste The Seat Of Franklin?Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-51895373659724941822015-05-28T13:46:08.068+10:002015-05-28T13:46:08.068+10:00ReachTEL is a robopoller (so it makes phone calls ...ReachTEL is a robopoller (so it makes phone calls using a machine with recorded messages; respondents press keys to select from given options). Their federal polling seems to be more or less neutral, and their primary vote estimates were extremely accurate in both NSW and Qld state elections, so it is clear they don't have an across-the-board conservative skew. In polls taken close to the Tasmanian state election (which did not allow the Undecided option) ReachTEL actually underestimated the Liberal vote. ReachTEL does call mobiles (I am unsure in what proportions compared to landlines). <br /><br />ReachTEL don't normally publish the number of respondents in different categories. Other robopolls that sometimes publish this information do show that those who actually answer the phone are indeed skewed strongly to the older age groups - and also at least one robopollster gets a two-to-one ratio of females to males answering the phone.<br /><br />Those pollsters whose methods attract an age-biased sample get around it by using scaling, so if your sample has half as many 18-24s as it should have, you just weight all their responses double. This increases the risks of random error and there is also the risk that those within such age groups who actually answer the phone might not be representative. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-70908165178529365822015-05-28T13:09:43.786+10:002015-05-28T13:09:43.786+10:00Hi Kevin,
Is there much information on the methodo...Hi Kevin,<br />Is there much information on the methodology used by ReachTEL? I found it interesting that they seemed to have consistently favoured a conservative viewpoint, and I wondered whether perhaps they might call only land lines, and not mobiles?<br />If so, the skew to an older audience might be enough to explain the shift to the Liberals in previous polling. Do they publish any kind of break-down of the age structure within the poll?Miguelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05801730738470165124noreply@blogger.com