tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post3582695856030797054..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Canning: The Anticlimax Live (Plus Post-Count)Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-4996743725679727682015-09-22T11:09:24.976+10:002015-09-22T11:09:24.976+10:00Thats interesting about the Libs outspending Labor...Thats interesting about the Libs outspending Labor, my impression from reading Bolt and the Oz, was that the ALP ( and the Unions) were the big spenders! It looks like the Libs were outspending the ALP by at least 2 to 1, according to the West Australian.<br />I suspect that Labor or more accurately the Unions, were more targeted in their campaign using American style marketing tactics. Was Canning a proving ground for these techniques?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08155353359653365734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-10461830485950719512015-09-20T09:19:10.672+10:002015-09-20T09:19:10.672+10:00The big swing in Armadale is probably due more to ...The big swing in Armadale is probably due more to that fact that it's a Labor voting area: the sort of people who might vote for a "popular larrakin" like Don Randall personally, but not really supporters of the Liberals. With Randall gone, the area has simply reverted to type. Mandurah and the coastal communities are more naturally Liberal, so the loss of Randall wouldn't affect their vote as much. <br /><br />Not sure you can extrapolate to other WA seats like that....Mark Mulcairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08483740999986680525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-74515439040353881902015-09-19T22:29:57.001+10:002015-09-19T22:29:57.001+10:00Yes, so the "Turnbull bounce" is a prett...Yes, so the "Turnbull bounce" is a pretty modest one. Looking at Canning, the real story is not the 6% swing, but the 10 and 11% swings in some of the suburban booths. This spells trouble for the Libs in the Perth marginals Cowan, Burt, Hasluck, Swan. And this happened in a by-election which Labor actually didn't want to win (for fear of getting Abbott rolled), and accordingly spent almost nothing, while the Libs spent $1 million. Feel free to make these points :)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13123271067640069925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-45118514375613017882015-09-19T21:58:45.372+10:002015-09-19T21:58:45.372+10:00There's not enough data to calculate a compara...There's not enough data to calculate a comparable one! By-elections when a new PM had just been elected aren't comparable because they usually involved a boost in national 2PP voting to above the previous election. In this case the "honeymoon" still sees the Coalition 3 points nationally below the 2013 election (at least based on the two polls so far).Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-77755732764078387232015-09-19T21:44:49.789+10:002015-09-19T21:44:49.789+10:00What's the baseline swing for a by-election in...What's the baseline swing for a by-election in the middle of a Prime Ministerial honeymoon? Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13123271067640069925noreply@blogger.com