tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post3416206581638824268..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Newspoll Number 30: Rolling CommentsKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-55163547805579945412018-04-09T12:29:04.535+10:002018-04-09T12:29:04.535+10:00Historically last-election preferences have usuall...Historically last-election preferences have usually been very accurate (see http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/wonk-central-track-record-of-last.html) but there are exceptions from time to time. At the moment it is likely that One Nation preferences would flow more strongly to the Coalition than they did in 2016 and that this could mean that "last-election" preferences have been underestimating the Coalition by somewhere between half a 2PP point and a whole 2PP point - perhaps even more than a point at the peak of the One Nation vote. However, Newspoll appears to have done something to adjust for this issue and over the last seven polls it seems they are no longer using the 2016 election One Nation preference flow but instead using something else, perhaps derived from the Queensland and WA state elections.<br /><br />Using respondent preferences creates a few issues. The first one is that it makes the 2PP result more prone to random variation - each poll will only sample a few hundred voters who do not support the major parties, so the split up of those preferences is volatile. Some respondent-allocated polls will give 2PPs that are two or maybe even four points different from the last-election result, but that doesn't mean the difference would really be anything like that big.<br /><br />The other problem is that respondent preferences are not very reliable anyway; they tend to exaggerate the impact of shifts in how people give preferences. One possible reason for this is that some voters follow How To Vote cards.<br /><br />Generally Abbott's government did worse on respondent preferences than last-election preferences. As for Turnbull, if Newspoll had used respondent preferences it's quite possible that he would have had a win or tie somewhere in the 30.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-87528059524327810932018-04-09T12:07:33.298+10:002018-04-09T12:07:33.298+10:00One of the interesting effects you have identified...One of the interesting effects you have identified is the reduced volatility in Newspolls.<br /><br />I was surprised to read (Gratton via The Conversation)<br /><br />"The Fairfax-Ipsos poll had the Coalition trailing 48-52% on the two-party vote, when preferences were distributed, as is usual, on the basis of the last election. But distributing preferences according to how people said they would allocate them brought the result to 50-50%." I note this is still not LNP leading.<br /><br />Given the polls tend to be summarised (should that be trivialised) to a 2PP figure... Is the basis of current poll for primary vote, but last election for distribution of preferences really robust? Given a preference distribution is sought in the poll.<br /><br />Does it actually make a difference. Are both Abott and Turnbull Nil from 30 regardless of the methodology?<br /><br />Dave Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11232533713295346967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-57902841937567720832018-04-08T20:35:22.675+10:002018-04-08T20:35:22.675+10:00I'm surprised that people still fall for PVO&#...I'm surprised that people still fall for PVO's manufactured "OMFG Newspoll!!" tweets. Mark Mulcairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08483740999986680525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-67775452465667994632018-04-08T14:58:54.379+10:002018-04-08T14:58:54.379+10:00It will be Newspoll loss number 69 in total for th...It will be Newspoll loss number 69 in total for the Coalition since the 2013 election, as well as 13 wins and 7 ties. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-13810710818106840242018-04-08T13:51:42.144+10:002018-04-08T13:51:42.144+10:00kevin will this loss tonight bring a total of 60 n...kevin will this loss tonight bring a total of 60 newspoll loses since the 2013 election and is there a graph or any info about this available buddynobshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08553516052778208190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-68154496579723233482018-04-08T12:21:11.955+10:002018-04-08T12:21:11.955+10:00I think your summary on the Ipsos poll is valid, a...I think your summary on the Ipsos poll is valid, as you say Fairfax pay for it so they have to get their monies work.<br /><br />Also the duration of 18 months can be explained by the 2 summer breaks.John Reidyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00488071052191988158noreply@blogger.com