tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post3413872907166905354..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: The Federal Government's Majority Is Three Seats, Not OneKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-86291663422098213152021-04-03T12:38:11.122+11:002021-04-03T12:38:11.122+11:00That's not quite correct. Refusal to vote lea...That's not quite correct. Refusal to vote leads in the first instance to a please-explain letter. Conscientious objection (as opposed to religious objection) is not generally accepted as a reason for not voting, so a person refusing to vote on such grounds would be fined. If they then persistently refused to pay the fine their licence could be suspended. Note that there is no penalty for just voting informally. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-2767669476925349982021-04-03T11:31:01.581+11:002021-04-03T11:31:01.581+11:00I was a bit surprised to be told by the Tas Electo...I was a bit surprised to be told by the Tas Electoral Commission that not only is voting compulsory BUT refusal to vote on conscientious grounds would lead to a penalty of Driver's Licence suspension.<br />Is our democracy that fragile ?<br />I am so disillusioned by failure of Fed. Govt to actively distance itself from the Trump trainwreck that I would consider such a protest, but would hope the penalty would be more reasonable.invocruxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00649132319778221404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-21664085567269337712021-03-04T11:50:42.386+11:002021-03-04T11:50:42.386+11:00Normally a Government or Opposition MHR being on l...Normally a Government or Opposition MHR being on leave has no effect on majority status as the other side will provide a pair for that MP on contested votes. A few other MHRs have been on leave recently and covered by this convention. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-19451400773625336772021-03-04T07:25:46.753+11:002021-03-04T07:25:46.753+11:00Does the fact that Christian Porter is now on leav...Does the fact that Christian Porter is now on leave mean that effectively the govt is reduced to a minority for the duration of leave?Camhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17461014061093629814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-43357179672205109952021-02-11T17:57:11.313+11:002021-02-11T17:57:11.313+11:00William Bowe's model: https://www.pollbludger....William Bowe's model: https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/07/17/call-board-sydney/ suggests that Kelly did not have much of a personal vote in 2019 as the Coalition 2PP was closer to a demographic model than other seats with Coalition incumbents except for Warringah (Abbott) and Robertson. He did get small swings to him on the primary vote and 2PP but the former was probably assisted by being top of the ballot and the latter was smaller than both the national and state swing. The evidence doesn't say he was a liability within his own seat in 2019, but nor does it say he was a star. If he was re-endorsed, I am not as convinced as some that he would lose even to a high-profile opponent, as Hughes has low levels of natural minor party support, meaning that any independent winner will have to draw a lot of their vote from habitual major party voters on both sides. I think the concern is more about (i) his lack of visible contribution to the seat and party (ii) his embarrassment value to the party in other seats, which is not easily measured. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-57167990700353675842021-02-11T16:33:38.817+11:002021-02-11T16:33:38.817+11:00There seems to be an assumption that Craig Kelly i...There seems to be an assumption that Craig Kelly is a liability that hasn't been tested. He got a swing towards him in 2019, and people like him would help with the relatively high level of right wing micro -> LNP preferences the LNP enjoyed at the last election. Do you have any view on Craig Kelly's effect from a pseph perspective?Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03536933978795184627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-52548064234477996742021-01-24T01:10:51.475+11:002021-01-24T01:10:51.475+11:00The calculating halfway point in the UK Parliament...The calculating halfway point in the UK Parliament is usually (including currently) complicated by Sinn Fein`s abstentionism, however ignoring that the Conservatives loosing 40 seats in by-elections would cost them their majority.<br /><br />I, an Australian, would calculate the member/vote number margin from the half way point (usually rounded in the case of an off number of votes). T0000000000001https://www.blogger.com/profile/05135088419363685867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-74117685554993026192021-01-23T23:38:18.261+11:002021-01-23T23:38:18.261+11:00The UK uses plurality for margins for a seat, but ...The UK uses plurality for margins for a seat, but not for calculating the majority in parliament - for that purpose, majority means majority. The Conservatives are said to have an 80-seat majority because they have 365 and all other parties combined have 285. They have a 163-seat plurality over Labor but that figure is not cited. No-one says they have a 40-seat majority. <br /><br />When someone wins a seat in Australia by three votes, we say they won by three votes. We don't say their margin was 1.5 votes. It's when it is turned into a 2PP percentage that the margin gets halved, but there is no equivalent of that for a parliament that gets any regular use.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-84846889994699715722021-01-23T18:18:15.961+11:002021-01-23T18:18:15.961+11:00The combination of Australia`s compulsory voting, ...The combination of Australia`s compulsory voting, compulsory preferential electoral systems, non-inclusion of informal votes in the percentage divisions between candidates in elections and comparatively strict party discipline drive the use of the more than half is required for a majority definition used in the votes-to-swing method, instead of the British plurality=majority method. Our use of referenda may also contribute to this.<br /><br />With the current odd-numbered size of the House or Reps, technically the government has (including the Speaker) a 1.5 seat majority and a plurality of between 3 and 9 (depending on how much of the crossbench is counted). Excluding the Speaker leaves an even number to calculate a floor majority of 1 and a floor plurality of between 2 and 8.T0000000000001https://www.blogger.com/profile/05135088419363685867noreply@blogger.com