tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post3143344901839530801..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Poll Roundup: Turnbull Shift Puts Coalition Back In FrontKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-43375237732675325102015-09-22T22:02:17.761+10:002015-09-22T22:02:17.761+10:00I think the argument in the bookies' modelling...I think the argument in the bookies' modelling is that New South Wales wasn't showing as much swing under Abbott as the rest of the mainland states. Replacing an unpopular NSW-based leader with a popular NSW-based leader shouldn't change that. So if the Coalition is expected to win the 2PP by a modest amount nationally at the next election, then that means an expected swing of about zero in NSW - which means an ALP seat on 0.6% could plausibly fall. It's also possible it could be adversely redistributed. So I can see where the modellers are coming from.<br /><br />I note along similar lines that the current Phantom Trend model actually has the Coalition ahead in Parramatta and Labor ahead nowhere in NSW - this off a national 51.4% 2PP. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-41327037079000104672015-09-22T20:55:18.668+10:002015-09-22T20:55:18.668+10:00Kevin what do you think about Parramatta being at ...Kevin what do you think about Parramatta being at risk?<br /><br />Labor won the seat in 2013 despite the Coalition doing well in NSW. It hasn't voted Liberal since 2001. <br /><br />Its interesting to note too that ultra marginal Reid and Barton are in the Coalition's column at the moment.The similarity between Parramatta, Reid and Barton (aside from all being in Sydney) is that they are very ethnically diverse. I wonder if this is a further trend of ethnic Sydney voters being far more inclined to vote Liberal compared to a generation ago. <br /><br />Lewisandrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11224040088945383217noreply@blogger.com