tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post3021750227938349437..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: What Chance One Nation Seats In The Tasmanian Parliament?Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-71263239873511088422017-01-13T11:29:06.824+11:002017-01-13T11:29:06.824+11:00The cast of minor parties running at Tasmanian sta...The cast of minor parties running at Tasmanian state and federal elections has chopped and changed a great deal in recent years and has been overshadowed by large movements of votes on a two-party basis between the major parties. Preferences are not sampled in state polling because 2PP is a meaningless concept in Hare-Clark and there hasn't been any federal Tasmanian polling breakdown since the 2016 election. An additional complication is that the Recreational Fishers Party polled very well in the federal Reps election but that some voters seemed to have confused it with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. So it is difficult to determine anything from vote or preference patterns. However my best guess from party breakdowns of preferred leader scores and other such issues polling is that the micro right vote at state level is presently coming mainly from the Liberals, and represents voters who are dissatisfied with the Liberal government but do not want to go back to a Labor/Green alliance.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-44562332987732543542017-01-13T09:37:11.499+11:002017-01-13T09:37:11.499+11:00Hi Kevin, do the preference flows or comparisons b...Hi Kevin, do the preference flows or comparisons between elections tell a consistent story about where the micro right vote is coming from in Braddon and Lyons - i.e. Labor or Libs? CheersAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-23974236858336710062016-12-22T22:00:21.115+11:002016-12-22T22:00:21.115+11:00Normally I'd say Christensen is putting some s...Normally I'd say Christensen is putting some stick about to get himself noticed as a standard-bearer for the conservative wing (with a view to a frontbench position once Turnbull is gone), and that nothing will come of it. But after such a year in politics generally I don't entirely rule out that we could be witnessing the beginning of a radical upheaval.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-63737457568501910162016-12-22T20:58:07.962+11:002016-12-22T20:58:07.962+11:00This could be interesting in LNP Vs One Nation sea...This could be interesting in LNP Vs One Nation seats in Queensland if Christensen defects and some sitting state MPs follow, I'd imagine that this new party would preference One Nation ahead of the LibsAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351448744030085941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-52364552116555330152016-12-22T20:08:43.429+11:002016-12-22T20:08:43.429+11:00I don't think that Bernardi leaving by himself...I don't think that Bernardi leaving by himself would be all that damaging. But if lower house MPs such as Christensen defected to the new party as well (causing the government to lose its majority) - especially if it was more than just one MP - then I would expect the government to be heavily defeated at the next election. In this case the new party would probably quickly show with at least 3-4% in polling and make 2PP calculations difficult, though probably over 80% of its preferences would flow to the Coalition. At state level I'd expect the party would need to attract high-profile sitting MPs (state or federal) to be a threat at state elections.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-64658531971911443372016-12-22T16:06:31.391+11:002016-12-22T16:06:31.391+11:00Thank you Kevin and season's greetings/happy H...Thank you Kevin and season's greetings/happy Hannukah/merry Christmas.<br />I have a question for you: what do you think will be the effect, statewide in Tasmania and nationally, if a new Conservative party were formed from a breakaway in the existing Coalition by elements such as Bernardi and Christensen? Do you think it would ultimately alter the 2PP and translate into a change in the number of seats?Camhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17461014061093629814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-36927038087177450112016-12-22T00:04:42.742+11:002016-12-22T00:04:42.742+11:00I Doubt One Nation could really make a dent in Tas...I Doubt One Nation could really make a dent in Tasmania. Their room for growth has now been taken up by Lambie with a similar outspoken nature and working class populist ideas. Another problem for One Nation in Tasmania is the lack of a stand out candidate and Leader. Quite frankly One Nation will only ever be about Pauline Hanson and will have a large deal of trouble gaining support outside of Queensland and Regional NSW & WA. <br /><br />Looking into the future, also assuming ON support doesn't plateau or crash completely, the most they could hope for outside of Queensland is the Mining & Pastoral and Agricultural Regions in WA, a good chance for at least one seat in the NSW Upper House and outside chances for the SA Upper House and the Northern and Western Vic regions.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351448744030085941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-16961732363798871222016-12-19T20:39:27.247+11:002016-12-19T20:39:27.247+11:00Yes, this was a big problem for the Palmer United ...Yes, this was a big problem for the Palmer United Party which ran some candidates who were extremely rough around the edges last time and were given a great amount of grief by me and by the Liberals, among others, for doing so. This may have played some part in bringing their polling down from about 7% to their final result of 5. The perception however is that suddenly for a certain kind of voter candidate quality might not be a thing - if they are angry enough they won't care. Hence Trump, as you point out.<br /><br />Peter Brent has made some good attempts to measure candidate quality for major party candidates from past results (differences between a party's House vote and Senate vote in a seat can be a useful indicator) but it is more difficult to do it for minor party candidates.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-73264953695132888752016-12-19T20:25:44.396+11:002016-12-19T20:25:44.396+11:00Pretty sure this comment by Andrew Elder that turn...Pretty sure this comment by Andrew Elder that turned up on the Trump thread belongs here:<br />-----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Part of the problem parties have is the quality of candidates. It's easy to separate parties vs candidates but candidate selection and management is part of basic competence in running parties. <br /><br />Part of the reason why minor parties stay minor or don't survive is because they live or die on the candidates they select. Major parties can claim "no individual is bigger than the party" and not only have more/better candidates to choose from, but are often smarter about who they put up. <br /><br />One Nation will need to put up attractive candidates to win in Lyons, Braddon or wherever else they might contest. Equally importantly, they will have to avoid selecting the sorts of ding-dongs they chose in Queensland in 1998 (turning 11 seats into a one-term aberration), or Culleton more recently. Major parties make selection errors too (eg Labor's Peter Knott in 1993 or Liberal Jaymes Diaz in 2013) but their reputations and institutional base carry them past these aberrations. One Nation and other minors lack that buffer, ensuring that any candidates of quality and potential have more to fear from loose units in their own ranks than from their clearly identifiable opponents.<br /><br />Psephology doesn't really assess candidate quality (except perhaps stunts like putting popular candidates down the ticket for multi-candidate elections), and takes whomever parties put up as given. There is some scope to model the impact of particularly popular candidates. Only in retrospect can you assess the impact of an undisclosed bankruptcy/conviction or other voter-repellent behaviour by a candidate, which reflects upon (if not sinks) their party. This was certainly a problem with assessments of Trump, where his voter-repellent behaviour did not appear to have repelled actual voters at the election. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.com