tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post2982899986089064353..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Poll Roundup: 2018 Year In ReviewKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-15482318426117941442018-12-20T20:39:41.073+11:002018-12-20T20:39:41.073+11:00The incumbency bias is about 17 points (I usually ...The incumbency bias is about 17 points (I usually give it as 16 but have just checked the regression and it has gone up to 17 now). That is, when the 2PP is 50-50, the PM is on average about 17 points ahead on 2PP. When the opposition is ahead 53-47, it's usually about level, and for the current 2PP Morrison would normally be behind. (That he isn't is because of 1. he is still new and getting the benefit of the doubt more than his party is 2. Shorten is fairly unpopular 3. Possibly changed properties of Newspoll under Galaxy administration.)Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78311431907417264692018-12-20T19:44:17.999+11:002018-12-20T19:44:17.999+11:00In my probably ill-informed opinion PPM is a bit u...In my probably ill-informed opinion PPM is a bit useless unless one can somehow quantify incumbency bias. Sure it can be used to justify ones belief their team will win, or the other team lose, but theres a reason we all ask if someone is already acting in the position when deciding whether to apply for a job. Maybe a better line of questioning will be who will you be voting for, why, pick one of the local candidate, the leader, the policies, it's part of my identity man. D Loweryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04552549191791754838noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-55400200091921321732018-12-20T10:07:51.360+11:002018-12-20T10:07:51.360+11:00I have no idea why pollsters ask the stupid PPM qu...I have no idea why pollsters ask the stupid PPM question. I have and never will have a say on the PM unless he/she happens to come from my electorate. In other words in my humble opinion the question and answers supplied are total rubbish.Barryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08664699802718952449noreply@blogger.com