tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post2084791361500455560..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Bennelong Live: Majority On The Line (Plus Post-Count)Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-77835304328743795982017-12-17T20:54:20.937+11:002017-12-17T20:54:20.937+11:00It would be interesting if that geographic pattern...It would be interesting if that geographic pattern happened consistently at other by-elections.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-13579110368718867422017-12-17T19:42:11.293+11:002017-12-17T19:42:11.293+11:00As I said on Tallyroom, the biggest swings tended ...As I said on Tallyroom, the biggest swings tended to be in the booths along the edges of the seat (in all directions). <br /><br />In 2016, the Absent vote was significantly better for Labor than the Ordinary votes. There's no absents at by-elections, so perhaps the big swings in these booths is simply due to the Absent vote being absorbed into the booth vote?Mark Mulcairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08483740999986680525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-29761508118579265482017-12-17T16:47:11.357+11:002017-12-17T16:47:11.357+11:00Looks like it has been corrected by the amount you...Looks like it has been corrected by the amount you expected, now showing 55.6-44.4.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-41165188989173647722017-12-17T16:09:30.307+11:002017-12-17T16:09:30.307+11:00Minor point but the TPP in Epping Heights showing ...Minor point but the TPP in Epping Heights showing on Sunday (62-38), that is a swing to the Liberals, simply looks miscalculated by about 6%.Neilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03267946559548664259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-86565292933568278882017-12-17T13:33:58.170+11:002017-12-17T13:33:58.170+11:00The Bennelong result doesn’t really give us many p...The Bennelong result doesn’t really give us many pointers to the next federal election. It’s already bleedingly obvious that the LNP has a hercuelean task ahead of it to retain government – both electoral history and electoral mathematics are stacked against them. Inasmuch as this result tells us anything though, it’s that the governments position may not be completely irretrievable. If they hang in and don’t self destruct, with a bit of good fortune coming their way, it indicates there is just a possibility we could witness a rerun of 2004.<br /><br />The ALP should have achieved an 8-10% swing in the circumstances. A government that changes leaders, then just scraped in at the subsequent election and has a leader with Turnbull’s netstat, should be swinging in the breeze, just waiting to be cut loose. That they didn’t exposes the flaws in Shorten’s leadership and judgement.<br /><br />The ALP needed just needed an everyday candidate that could say, “Hi I’m a hardwoking member of the local community, I feel your frustrations etc, but hey, don’t focus on me, take the opportunity to send a message to the government”.<br /><br />But no, what do they do? Dredge up a fly-in candidate from the other side of the city whose husband was the mayor of Botany until just last year. Not only that, but she was associated and intimately connected with one of the most ugly periods in NSW political history and led the ALP to its worst defeat in history. Just as NSW Labour was tentatively showing signs of green shoots, they bring in a high profile candidate to remind everyone of the history-and in an electorate that showed one of the highest swings in the state in 2011.<br /><br />Aside from that, there is the the issue of the governments precarious majority. By ratcheting up the importance of the result with a high-profile candidate, they forced people to think more carefully about their vote. More carefully about lodging a normal by-election protest vote.<br /><br />The smart strategy would have been to play it down, keep it as low key as possible, then have a shocking upset on the night.Peterjk23https://www.blogger.com/profile/10996843671233378706noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-82369953231714967242017-12-16T19:26:45.579+11:002017-12-16T19:26:45.579+11:00I reckon Malcolm Turnbull making this by-election ...I reckon Malcolm Turnbull making this by-election *mean* something (the comment regarding it being a reflection of HIS government) might have nullified, to a degree, the usual by-election backlash against the Government. <br /><br />To my knowledge, that comes about the feeling (of the electorate) that they can punish the Government without destroying it. Turnbull raising the stakes might nullify that.Kasey Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17183320601719206423noreply@blogger.com