tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post2028615299242204689..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: SA State Election March 15Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-12505076092465115092014-03-12T12:10:22.352+11:002014-03-12T12:10:22.352+11:00Probably operator error on my part with the missin...Probably operator error on my part with the missing comment which I found in the moderation queue and approved. I get emails when a new comment is sent but in very rare cases they get missed in the perpetual deluge that is my inbox.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-32885447573944038792014-03-10T12:49:05.442+11:002014-03-10T12:49:05.442+11:00Oh, weird. I had another message in between those ...Oh, weird. I had another message in between those two. It went into more details about some electorates. My platform for posting is highly unreliable obviously. <br /><br />Anyway, roughly my previous post detailed the following:<br />*My thoughts on the seat of Adelaide being that I feel it's very odd that the swing achieved last election is being retained against a 'star' Labor candidate in a traditionally Left-of-center seat. <br />*My contacts within the ALP seem to think Adelaide and Colton are looking good for them (odd cobsidering) <br />*The general vibe in Mawson, the electorate encompassing Modbury (can't remember the name) and the electorate encompassing Gawler (I'm having a bad day, memory wise) are all very volatile and are on a knife edge. The huge amount of Liberal advertising (street, TV and radio) may actually be slightly annoying the people around these electorates and pushing them away slightly. Plus the ALP advertisements themselves are more effective. <br />*In Napier, the ALP is expected to win fairly easily but will be expecting a large swing to the Libs. This is due to no one really knowing the ALP candidate Mr. Gee. Further the Liberal Candidate is a well known man in the area who has been campaigning effectively for a long time now. <br /><br />Here is hoping this works, Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17635197915560584620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-11223942223989913782014-03-06T14:39:29.510+11:002014-03-06T14:39:29.510+11:00As a continuation of my previous post. It truly is...As a continuation of my previous post. It truly is interesting that in Adelaide, Labor has next to zero advertising. Zero. Seriously, even the "X-Team" of Xenophon and co have more. <br /><br />This suggests one of three things. Either Labor has a lot less funding than we think and are stretched thin. Or they considered Adelaide an easy win and that the status quo would be restored. Or, perhaps they forgot they were running a star candidate in Adelaide and didn't have any posters for him made :-P <br /><br />Really is odd though. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17635197915560584620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-83769596268745625602014-03-06T08:00:25.657+11:002014-03-06T08:00:25.657+11:00Ah, yes. Polling for Adelaide has been released an...Ah, yes. Polling for Adelaide has been released and I've got to say I'm surprised. <br /><br />Talking to ALP members in the area, as of yesterday afternoon had their chances as at least "fair". It will be interesting to see what their internal polling is telling them today. <br /><br />To be honest, I had thought considering its a natural Labor seat that it would ignore the Sophomore Surge effect and swing back to Labor's hands. I mean, a natural Labor seat lost with a swing of 15%+ and not being conceded back the following election? Abnormal. <br /><br />Anyway, Colton looking like a good contest. Light is gone for all money if what I'm hearing is right. Mawson is a battle but favouring Labor. Oh, and the electorate covering Modbury (can't remember its name this morning is a battle but seemingly favouring Liberal. <br /><br />Last but not least, Napier, my electorate and the seat at the heart of the factional battle last month will stay Labor but will take a strong swing against it. People just don't know the new guy and the Liberal Candidate is well known for good reasons here. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17635197915560584620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-75775187263835313702014-03-03T00:11:43.087+11:002014-03-03T00:11:43.087+11:00Good read. I believe your points have quite a lot ...Good read. I believe your points have quite a lot of merit here and I would be foolish to argue against any of them, really. <br /><br />I'm glad that you made time for your South Australian fans to write this article. I very much enjoyed your debunking of the current electoral system here and it's, let's just say, oddness. <br /><br />The interesting thing will be if there is another swing to Lib, but they lose Adelaide and don't gain Colton or Mount Gambier then the single seat swings need to be much higher elsewhere to form a majority. <br /><br />From ground level here, people are generally bewildered that a 54-55 2PP is even being spoken about as a hung parliament possibility. And with the new polling in Colton (god I'd love polling of Adelaide residents... Hint hint pollsters) and the general feeling in Adelaide and my knowledge of the electorate of Mount Gambier it's actually an absurd possibility. <br /><br />Very odd vibe here In SA. People want Labor gone, but are confused as to how to really do it. The papers say it's a done deal but the people remember last election. Its oddly meaning meaning people who would have voted Lib to get rid of Labor are now unsure whether that will work. People are concerned about the state and are not sure what to do. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17635197915560584620noreply@blogger.com