tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post1667152310364274454..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Modelling The Seat Of Pascoe ValeKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-81260524870411529042022-11-25T07:32:50.676+11:002022-11-25T07:32:50.676+11:00Notable that the odds have closed rather dramatica...Notable that the odds have closed rather dramatically since you posted thisfmarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12293358628518573479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-40502099621404071942022-11-22T23:13:40.185+11:002022-11-22T23:13:40.185+11:00I am involved in Climate Action Merribek which cov...I am involved in Climate Action Merribek which covers 3 electorates including Pascoe Vale. We chose to focus on organising a candidates forum for this electorate. We had a capacity audience for the hall we used for the in-person forum. Merribek Bicycle User group also chose to do a zoom candidates forum on active transport. This is a middle suburban electorate where public transport frequency and better cycling infrastructure are issues of concern.<br /><br />Although I don't live in the electorate, I have personally met most of the candidates. Both the Labor and Greens candidates are capable and have been campaigning hard. Sue Bolton, who is a socialist Councillor on Merribek Council, is an inveterate campaigner who has garnered a level of dedicated community support. The Victorian Socialists are also dedicated caampaigners, and I suspect their target is to gain support for their Pascoe Vale candidate and translate that into support for Northern Metro candidate, Jerome Small who may have a reasonable chance of winning the 5th seat in the Upper House for the region. Reason Candidate Margee Glover is a seasoned candidate campaigner. But like the Vic Socialists, the main aim is to translate votes for sitting MLC Fiona Patten in the Upper House. While I haven't met the Animal Justice Party candidate for Pascoe Vale, Leah Horsfall the Northern Metro candidate is campaigning hard for the Upper House, attending all the forums in the region. That last seat in the Northern Metro region will be a tough one to call.<br /><br />I suspect the electorate boundary changes, and with Liberal preferencing the Greens may make this a marginal electorate to watch on Saturday night. <br /><br />You can see the forum videos and other information on Pascoe Vale here: https://climateactionmoreland.org/2022/11/10/pascoe-vale-candidates-support-climate-emergency-declaration-vicvotes2022/<br /><br />Disclosure: I am a third party player in this electorate on issues such as climate change, public transport and active transport and participated in organising a candidates forum. I have held briefings with some of the candidates on these issues and how it affects Pascoe Vale and the region.takvera (John Englart)https://www.blogger.com/profile/13834239542685399015noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-36783877094408879562022-11-19T07:45:51.790+11:002022-11-19T07:45:51.790+11:00I live in the seat so can make a few observations
...I live in the seat so can make a few observations<br /><br />1) The campaign is quite visible, with both Labor and Greens signs all over, and both candidates quite visible on the trail. Certainly doesn't seem like Labor believes this is an easy win, especially with a new candidate. <br /><br />2) There is a surprising number of Madaleine Hah sign in people's yards. Normally the Socialists have the odd sign taped to a public wall or something, but I've almost never seen actual yard signs for them before. Possibly some genuine dissatisfaction with Labor that's transferring to other Left parties? Could boost the Greens vs Labor here.<br /><br />3) The Liberals' campaign is more visible than I've ever seen, with signs all over and Tom Wright being out and about at railway stations and so on. They're certainly not running dead to help the Greens from what I can see, which is a bit surprising. Perhaps the local branches value making the 2PP over causing trouble for Labor? <br /><br />My own assessment is Labor should win, simply because the anti-Labor sentiment seems split, and there isn't the same 'lightning rod' focus on a single alternative like Yildiz. Mark Mulcairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08483740999986680525noreply@blogger.com