tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post110597233352441895..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Marriage Law Survey Turnout Is High ... But Not That High!Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-32288604691298847162017-11-07T16:36:00.571+11:002017-11-07T16:36:00.571+11:00Update - I emailed EMRS and they said:
It was a n...Update - I emailed EMRS and they said:<br /><br />It was a national poll of n=1,000 adults.<br />Method was combined online & telephone – 70% Online and 30% Telephone.<br /><br />Telephone was done from EMRS's Hobart call centre (so I imagine it was 'live' and not IVR)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06921806326829889245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-59717733901591614562017-11-02T09:47:48.494+11:002017-11-02T09:47:48.494+11:00I haven't found any info on this EMRS poll asi...I haven't found any info on this EMRS poll aside from the two articles in the AFR:<br /><br />http://www.afr.com/news/equality-and-fairness-key-drivers-behind-the-yes-vote-poll-20171030-gzbgjx<br /><br />http://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/what-the-high-samesex-marrriage-vote-turnout-means-20171031-gzbse1<br /><br /><br />It mentions 1000 voters, which is the same size as EMRS's Tasmanian CATI omnibus according to their website - are we sure this is a national poll? Anyone got any other info.?<br /><br /><br />ThanksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06921806326829889245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-42311904683758111452017-11-01T22:16:12.136+11:002017-11-01T22:16:12.136+11:00And apparently 15% of people even in this land of ...And apparently 15% of people even in this land of the fair go still think that people engaging in same-sex relationships should be charged as criminals - see https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/oct/31/one-in-four-people-say-those-in-same-sex-relationships-should-be-charged-as-criminals-survey-77-countries <br />At least we're equal lowest with NZ. Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-20769765019092204162017-11-01T21:56:47.355+11:002017-11-01T21:56:47.355+11:00Thanks Joseph. Other interesting figures - 12% th...Thanks Joseph. Other interesting figures - 12% think "No" will win, so now we know how many stick to the "everybody else thinks just like me" fallacy even in the face of strong evidence. (I'm a bit surprised that it's that low; it boosts my faith in the sanity of the average Aussie. Probably higher in the USA!)<br /><br />And "91 per cent believed that it was important for the Parliament to reflect the will of the people in relation to the results." Not clear whether that includes the deluded 12% who will presumably scream "fake result" when the result is released. Some cross-correlations between the answers to the different questions would have been nice. Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-50630985623211134382017-11-01T21:26:00.998+11:002017-11-01T21:26:00.998+11:00A federal EMRS! Haven't seen one of those in a...A federal EMRS! Haven't seen one of those in a very long time indeed.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-5032583622308558952017-11-01T21:08:51.265+11:002017-11-01T21:08:51.265+11:00Kevin,
An EMRS poll was published today by the AF...Kevin,<br /><br />An EMRS poll was published today by the AFR. 64% 'Yes' vs 28% 'No'<br /><br />Looks like it was conducted over the same polling period as the Newspoll, although it appears to have asked about general sentiment, rather than how people voted (although it might not make much of a difference at this stage)<br /><br />http://www.afr.com/news/equality-and-fairness-key-drivers-behind-the-yes-vote-poll-20171030-gzbgjx<br /> Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07421881590865571475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-60074322131999581582017-11-01T10:14:55.591+11:002017-11-01T10:14:55.591+11:00There's a new Newspoll today -
Returned: 76%...There's a new Newspoll today - <br /><br />Returned: 76% <br />Yes, of those voted: 62%<br />No, of those voted: 35%<br /><br />Sentiment: (Yes/No/Undecided): 59%, 35%, 6%<br /><br />http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-samesex-support-grows-as-survey-deadline-looms/news-story/c8efa8998359a13da0541835506a7ce6<br /><br /><br />I'm attempting to record all the known polling & participation data here, for anyone interested in viewing:<br /><br />https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19rdAtUXUj3A3Nb26PBaGlqW_emnGTTnitJKZshGzqmw/edit?usp=sharing<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06921806326829889245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-73204741976666191422017-10-25T10:04:17.200+11:002017-10-25T10:04:17.200+11:00Re the Wk 4 Essential figures:
So, 60% of 75% is...Re the Wk 4 Essential figures: <br /><br />So, 60% of 75% is 45% of the Australian population having voted yes so far. Assuming the same responses in the remaining 8% who say they will vote, that'd be 49.8% voting yes – very close to an absolute majority, and that's before taking into account that 60 and 34 don't add to 100.<br /><br />An absolute majority voting yes would make the politics less fraught, looks like it's going to be very close to that.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-52402695254544742822017-10-24T19:24:14.023+11:002017-10-24T19:24:14.023+11:00Postal voting gets better turnouts than booth voti...Postal voting gets better turnouts than booth voting for voluntary voting generally. In my state we switched from booth to postal voting for council elections in the early 1990s and turnout increased massively. <br /><br />Election turnouts are higher in European democracies that have voluntary voting than in the USA which has a notably low rate. There's a site with records for different countries here: <br /><br />https://www.idea.int/data-tools/question-countries-view/521/228/ctrKevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-24637195173469419112017-10-24T19:06:57.529+11:002017-10-24T19:06:57.529+11:00How close to a 3/4 vote efficiency is Australia in...How close to a 3/4 vote efficiency is Australia in the rankings of things? I know we're better than America that barely gets above 50%, but the UK?Kasey Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17183320601719206423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-48282467541799881222017-10-24T14:36:40.422+11:002017-10-24T14:36:40.422+11:00And this week's ABS alert says 11.9 million (7...And this week's ABS alert says 11.9 million (74.5 per cent) which "is based on a count of forms scanned rather than earlier estimates that were based on the weight of the bulk containers of returned forms" and that it estimates that it received 300,000 forms last week. Which means that the previous estimate of 10.8 mill was low by 800,000 - the forms must be 7% lighter than they thought! So the polls have been somewhere close to right all along, and the ABS's guesstimates have been low. The turnout has been pretty close to "that high" ater all. <br /><br />Have to have some doubt about the 8% who are telling Essential they "definitely will" return the forms though - if they've procrastinated for this long what's another week or two? Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-36783160750664765962017-10-17T15:19:13.617+11:002017-10-17T15:19:13.617+11:00Update, Kevin - another 800,000, taking it to 10.8...Update, Kevin - another 800,000, taking it to 10.8 mill or 67.5%. Steady at 800,000 per week for the last two weeks. Good for AusPost's balance sheet.Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-37853446799630079422017-10-14T15:16:50.282+11:002017-10-14T15:16:50.282+11:00Ah, thanks to the Gwardian at https://www.theguard...Ah, thanks to the Gwardian at https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/07/same-sex-marriage-survey-count-watchers-bound-by-lifetime-secrecy , I've found some of the answers. The Grauny page includes a copy of the Observer Guidelines. The ABS had stupidly marked them Confidential, but the Grauny quite rightly ignored that. You can pop the Guidelines out for easier reading by clicking Show Only This Frame or the equivalent in your browser of choice.<br /><br />As to where the scanning takes place, p 4 says "Survey responses will be returned to five Fuji Xerox sites located in Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney for processing". But then p 8 says "Manual coding of forms will only occur in the Moorebank facility, where observers are present. The other centres are only used for scanning and containment of forms." So presumably batches of disputable ones will be sent from the other centres to Moorebank - presumably. Presumably the staff at the other 4 centres decide whether something is disputable in the first place without observers looking on. And presumably the weekly count is of all the forms that have been delivered to any of the 5 centres. Presumably.<br /><br />The document then shows many examples of forms filled in in a variety of silly ways (including a write-in of "Go Tigers", with the way each one should be coded and the reason for that decision in columns to the right. Mostly seems pretty sensible to me. <br /><br /> Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-13322347395158702752017-10-11T10:13:25.802+11:002017-10-11T10:13:25.802+11:00Haven't been following the details of the obse...Haven't been following the details of the observer process closely enough lately to comment on the scanning process. Anyone who has is welcome to comment.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-7326155371582768182017-10-11T10:01:49.891+11:002017-10-11T10:01:49.891+11:00I'm suspicious of this too. Whether they'r...I'm suspicious of this too. Whether they're checking at Capital city depots, or at Moorebank. That would change the way we understand these numbers completely. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17107069065971115208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-80401702885570056802017-10-10T17:46:17.547+11:002017-10-10T17:46:17.547+11:00Yep, 62.5% (10 million).
Yep, 62.5% (10 million).<br />Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-36960750664281497242017-10-10T17:00:48.989+11:002017-10-10T17:00:48.989+11:00Well that was a pretty bad guess! Another 800,000 ...Well that was a pretty bad guess! Another 800,000 forms during the week, bringing the total to 62.5%. So maybe the envelopes have been flowing more quickly through the postal system than I'd thought, with less choke points than I was imagining. I would like more info, though, on whether the number thought to be in each bulk container turns out to be true when they open the container. And where are they being scanned, Kevin? All at Moorebank, or at all the capital city FujiXerox document centres like they did for the Senate? (I think I read that the observers-not-scrutineers are being invited just to Moorebank. Is that right?)Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-2700517877323842017-10-10T16:18:33.682+11:002017-10-10T16:18:33.682+11:00Have today's numbers bee released?Have today's numbers bee released?Kasey Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17183320601719206423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-18884619316644703502017-10-09T22:27:36.463+11:002017-10-09T22:27:36.463+11:00OK, rash prediction for tomorrow's ABS officia...OK, rash prediction for tomorrow's ABS official % of forms received. High 70s, on the assumption that the surveys that said so were about right, and all the forms that had been posted when the surveys were taken have got through all the choke points and been counted. You'd have to expect delivery to be slow - this must be the highest number of items all being delivered to the one recipient in AusPost's history. Even tax return time in the days before online returns wouldn't come near.Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-32777112736809126542017-10-08T23:43:01.473+11:002017-10-08T23:43:01.473+11:00No. Many polls are accused of being push-polls tha...No. Many polls are accused of being push-polls that are not. <br /> There are a number of different poll types that may have suspicious preambles. There is often some overlap, but these include:<br /><br />1. What I call skew-polls, where the purpose of the dodgy preamble is to generate a skewed response which can then be used to get publicity for the commissioning source's views and/or pressure decision-makers.<br /><br />2. Message-testing polls, where a dubious message is presented to some or all respondents to see how it might affect their response.<br /><br />3. Incompetently designed issue polls.<br /><br />4. Genuine push-polls, where the poll has a large "sample" size and the commissioning source is just transmitting propaganda and then throwing away the result.<br /><br />5. Data-harvesting exercises, where the real purpose of the poll is to obtain data about respondents for use in campaigns.<br /><br />The known suspicious-preamble polls that have been reported in this case are mostly of forms 2 and 5.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-30682746375232409762017-10-08T17:19:47.893+11:002017-10-08T17:19:47.893+11:00By "suspicious preamble", do you mean pu...By "suspicious preamble", do you mean push-poll? ;-)Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17837037454015036429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-941533807591094932017-10-06T10:37:20.722+11:002017-10-06T10:37:20.722+11:00The ABS is mainly relying on "Australia Post’...The ABS is mainly relying on "Australia Post’s assessment of the number of containers of sorted envelopes." So it probably includes everything that has been mailed by Thursday 28th or Friday 29th and sorted by Australia Post, even if some of those forms hadn't been delivered to the ABS yet.<br /><br />ABS Source:<br />https://marriagesurvey.abs.gov.au/results-survey#estimatesEdward Boycehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11992457293668557692noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78750891052092928462017-10-05T12:52:59.700+11:002017-10-05T12:52:59.700+11:00There may indeed be some reason for scepticism abo...There may indeed be some reason for scepticism about the return rates reported by pollsters, but I also hae' me doots about the ABS figure. They say the 57-odd % estimate "is indicative only as it is based on the bulk containers of returned forms and not a count of individual or processed forms. It does not include forms that have been posted but not yet delivered by Australia Post to the ABS."<br /><br />Now my question is where AusPost does the delivery and when are the containers deemed to be delivered? Out here in the Brisbane northern suburbs I noticed that our reply-paids were addressed to a PO Box at the Northgate sorting centre. Does AusPost then deliver them to the ABS's (relatively small) office in Brisbane, or to the Fuji-X document management place at Parkinson where the machines are(way over the other side of town), or all the way to Canberra - and at what stage does the ABS count them as having been "delivered"? My hunch is that there may be some millions of votes in containers being gradually trucked to Parkinson, or even to Canberra, and they may not be added to the ABS's count until they've arrived even though they may well know that they're on the way. And then there'll be quite a large jump in the numbers. You seem to have made some sort of contact with insiders at ABS Kevin, could you find out more details and pass them on please?Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-80628320054644872122017-10-04T21:28:28.115+11:002017-10-04T21:28:28.115+11:00The hate speech parts of the protection laws seem ...The hate speech parts of the protection laws seem to have been all for show. They've had negligible impact on behaviour, and seem to have been breached a heck of a lot (depending on interpretation) but no prosecutions have yet been announced. I've sometimes bit my tongue on account of the unknowable risk of breaching them (perhaps needlessly since nobody actually knows what the things mean), but I don't see any sign that many others have.<br /><br />The ability to catch multiple voters (people who are stealing survey forms and filling them out) is weak unless the thieves are really stupid about it. I am used to the Tasmanian council system where if there were multiple envelopes recorded stolen it would be easy to intercept the envelopes before opening them, and probably from that capture fingerprints and samples of the thief's handwriting and other clues. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-18462097526889432112017-10-04T20:45:12.097+11:002017-10-04T20:45:12.097+11:00That's certainly true, "voting" is e...That's certainly true, "voting" is easy. But there's also long been evidence that very few people care strongly enough to change their electoral vote over this issue, so a more apathetic response wouldn't have been a massive surprise to me. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.com