tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post977739678284557755..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: 2019 New South Wales Postcount: Legislative CouncilKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-55297412836471551632019-04-12T23:22:34.348+10:002019-04-12T23:22:34.348+10:00I don't believe Sustainable Australia preferen...I don't believe Sustainable Australia preferences will help KSO against AJP.<br /><br />1. Sustainable Australia's votes are mainly outside of Sydney, so preferencing a Sydney-centric party is just less likely.<br /><br />2. Sustainable Australia were third on the ballot paper, followed by the Greens and then AJP.<br /><br />3. Sustainable Australia is only 22% of the potential votes to be distributed before KSO could be eliminated. Most of the other 78% won't favour KSO over AJP.<br /><br />KSO will need to pick up votes from more than just Sustainable Australia anyway to overtake AJP but it really isn't going to happen anywhere.<br /><br />Greens, Buckingham, Socialist Alliance, SFF, VEP (also stronger regionally) will all have more preferences for AJP than KSO I think. Small Business or Conservatives are actually the two where I think KSO could beat AJP in terms of preferences but that's not going to be many votes difference, maybe hundreds. No idea on Flux or Advance but I don't think any of that matters much.Rosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04562753211393736017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-5759209000560649412019-04-12T09:10:57.241+10:002019-04-12T09:10:57.241+10:00It will be interesting to see how much of a factor...It will be interesting to see how much of a factor putting ON last is. One issue with it is that a lot of the votes that do so will lodge at some point with Labor or Coalition and cease to have any further impact. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-15824843962587543012019-04-12T08:57:35.187+10:002019-04-12T08:57:35.187+10:00Updating at the end of the check count: I still do...Updating at the end of the check count: I still don't think ONP will have their number 2 elected. I expect the exhaust rate to bring them down, and then for a large number of people to have filled in lots of preferences with the express purpose of putting them last. I'm now not sure which of the CDP or LDP will get over the top of them. But it seems the AJP have passed KSO as favourites for the last seat.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-74959360779440488822019-04-11T23:13:41.085+10:002019-04-11T23:13:41.085+10:00Last time the Greens went much more to Labor (20%)...Last time the Greens went much more to Labor (20%) than AJP (11.5%) despite the Greens preferencing AJP on their card. Most of the Greens' preferences exhausted, but their exhaust rate was lower than others. Labor will be in the count and continuing to soak up preferences. <br /><br />If KSO are to get over AJP I suspect they'll need to do it from multiple preference sources, not just SUS-A (if SUS-A are any use to them at all there.) The break from any one party isn't likely to be strong enough. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-80935796183656131252019-04-11T23:02:13.927+10:002019-04-11T23:02:13.927+10:00Right, but I think Greens 0.14 will go to AJP &...Right, but I think Greens 0.14 will go to AJP & KSO, SFF 0.218 will go to LDP & One Nation. Sus-A pref KSO #1 and has 0.322, some will go to One Nation and SFF but SFF will be knocked out already. Sus-A flows to KSO maybe enough to beat AJP and if that happens then since AJP pref KSO #1 I think it might end up LNP ALP ONE KSOUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00504903745110109324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-57851968352930248742019-04-11T22:01:16.056+10:002019-04-11T22:01:16.056+10:00Virtually no-one voting for small parties on the l...Virtually no-one voting for small parties on the left will follow the how-to-vote cards. SAP prefs will scatter - to exhaust, some to Labor, some to KSO. I'd be surprised if they put KSO over AJP and one scrutineer said he suspected more of them were actually going to AJP.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-91003343839025655992019-04-11T21:55:52.041+10:002019-04-11T21:55:52.041+10:00Now the check has finished.. Sustainable Australia...Now the check has finished.. Sustainable Australia preferenced KSO first, so if they get knocked out, won't that place KSO above AJP?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00504903745110109324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-61654881693768043012019-04-02T14:21:15.548+11:002019-04-02T14:21:15.548+11:00There isn't any indication in the count explai...There isn't any indication in the count explainer https://vtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/info/lc#count that the initial count will cease. Indeed it seems to imply otherwise "This process will apply for all Legislative Council initial 1st preference counts for voting centres, early voting centres, iVote, postal and the various declaration vote types." Unless perhaps they mean that not all votes will receive an initial count.<br /><br />My view is that electoral commissions should make information publicly available that assists people watching the count to project it as quickly as possible (and also to spot errors in it). In this light, how quickly/whether the initial count finishes is a relatively minor issue - the biggest problem is the lack of breakdown of the check count results (not just the % counted) by division.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-7956919927950880042019-04-02T11:43:45.134+11:002019-04-02T11:43:45.134+11:00You wonder if the "main count" will be c...You wonder if the "main count" will be completed? I don't think there'd be much point - rather than "main" it was really only a quick-and-dirty preliminary count. It's much more to the point that the EC now concentrate on getting the _real_ (ie, "check") count right. They're slow enough anyway without distracting themselves by finishing an irrelevant count. Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-74921076812512917322019-04-01T21:53:03.342+11:002019-04-01T21:53:03.342+11:00Instead of 5.22 (2.14) it was actually meant to be...Instead of 5.22 (2.14) it was actually meant to be 5.52 (1.214) !Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-47154439901777034242019-04-01T19:34:26.265+11:002019-04-01T19:34:26.265+11:00Monday count - SFF 1.14 (or 1.15) seats, not 2.14,...Monday count - SFF 1.14 (or 1.15) seats, not 2.14, I theeenkJack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-42340605021033469592019-03-31T18:33:17.481+11:002019-03-31T18:33:17.481+11:00I should also note that if CDP get cut out, their ...I should also note that if CDP get cut out, their preferences will go much more to the Coalition than PHON. If PHON get cut, their preferences will go to the majors. So on current projected primary numbers, even though the LDP are often slow-moving on preferences, I don't see either of the other right parties getting near them. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-66725325458381028432019-03-31T18:29:18.172+11:002019-03-31T18:29:18.172+11:00If the button was pressed on my projected totals a...If the button was pressed on my projected totals at the moment I'd expect ALP, LDP and KSO to win (in whatever order). But I have a lot of doubt about where KSO especially will finish on the primary count. Something like .44 quotas could still be winnable for them, because there are more left preferences and left voters use preferences more. <br /><br />I expect that neither SUS-A nor AJP preference recommendations will have any impact to speak of (unverified reports that Glenn Druery encouraged them to hand out as many HTV cards as possible notwithstanding). But voters for AJP in particular should preference KSO to a reasonable degree through voter choice. By the time AJP is chopped the even left-wing-ish options will be down to Labor and KSO, and KSO is likely to appeal to AJP voters who are likely to be young. SUS-A preferences tend to flow slightly to left parties but more weakly than AJP, so I wouldn't expect a huge amount of help there. I would also think SUS-A's support base is older, but I could be wrong. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-33714008489554872942019-03-31T17:54:01.987+11:002019-03-31T17:54:01.987+11:00Thanks for that. Yes, I was wondering if the ALP m...Thanks for that. Yes, I was wondering if the ALP might jump a few. I also noticed that on its website SUS-A was recommending second pref for KSO. IF (i) their voters noticed that and (ii) they followed the advice, that would keep KSO in the running. Meaning election for LNP #8, LDP, KSO aand ALP #7 and only 1 ON and no CDP. But who can tell? Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-47807766655567483822019-03-31T17:36:30.071+11:002019-03-31T17:36:30.071+11:00I haven't done that yet. It is tricky because...I haven't done that yet. It is tricky because of the number of differences in the competing parties and their relative standings. In 2019, One Nation, Liberal Democrats and KSO weren't in the mix for seats, while the Shooters and No Land Tax were receiving preferences but won't be (at least at the pointy end in Shooters' case) this time around. Also it looks like Animal Justice preferences will be thrown, which didn't happen last time.<br /><br />What is important is that no-one ever makes huge gains in these things compared to the primary count. In 2015 at the point at which the Coalition's final candidate was excluded (which is probably a good comparison point) the following had been gained: Labor .085 quotas, Animal Justice .065, Shooters .044, Coalition .042, No Land Tax .025, Christian Dems .015.<br /><br />Much of the difference between parties was caused by the Greens surplus, but this time they have no surplus to speak of at present. On the other hand the AJP preferences, if thrown, may work in a similar way for Labor.<br /><br />This time there might also be more above the line preferencing - but I don't know that. <br /><br />On current numbers, Labor would jump enough parties ahead of it to get elected. It might even jump everyone except the Coalition. I do not see AJP, SUS-A as having a chance if it finished as per the current numbers. I don't see CDP jumping One Nation if behind them on primaries, and I doubt ON would jump KSO on the current numbers, but if KSO keep falling that will soon change.<br />Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-8604144093367411912019-03-31T15:38:03.351+11:002019-03-31T15:38:03.351+11:00Predictions hmm...
Ok, first off I think Labor ar...Predictions hmm...<br /><br />Ok, first off I think Labor are a shoe-in. They're going to score preferences at a per preference rate higher than any of the others, maybe a many times higher rate. And if we think about who is above them and whether the preferences will generally flow left or right, then it's only KSO on the left who are higher. In particular I expect the ALP to pick up most of the Janasson and Buckingham preferences, as well as the Greens surplus. So, I expect the ALP to easily overhaul the CDP and ONP, putting them easily in the top 3.<br /><br />Mark Latham's big below the line vote puts PHON's no. 2 candidate in a precarious position. I think a significant number of people would probably have gone below the line for Latham but wouldn't want to risk electing another Fraser Anning or Malcolm Roberts, so I expect those votes to leak like crazy, and for the CDP to pass PHON on primaries. I then think it will stay that way because I think a significant number of people who number all the boxes (either below the line or above it) do so in order to put PHON last (or close to it) -- there is a history of exactly this at NSW upper house elections.<br /><br />That leaves KSO, LDP and the CDP in the best position to advance with the ALP. I can't see the AJP overhauling the 0.1 quota gap on primaries to the parties above them, and no one else is within about 0.2 quotas. That's a tough ask. If SFF were closer, then maybe, but at present it's too big a gap.<br /><br />Based on that KSO are probably going to soak up any remaining left leaning preferences not absorbed by the ALP. I think they'll probably be the last elected -- because most of the remainders are to the right -- but exhaustion will be high so being in top spot and never actively ticking anyone off over a 3/4-year period will help them. What puts their position in the most doubt is the ~0.2 quotas for the SFF. I can't see anyone voting for the SFF giving a damn about whether Sydney is open or not. However, in order for me to predict they will miss out, I'd be suggesting the CDP could catch up the 0.06 quotas they are behind them, and that at the same time the LDP maintain their slim lead, which seems like a lot. <br /><br />But working out which of the the CDP or LDP gets the 2nd last spot will be tougher. It's going to come down to which of those two parties can pick-up SFF and PHON preferences at a higher rate. Additionally while I might expect the CDP to get more of the CON share, LDP might get more of the SBP share. The CDP might also gain a significant minor fraction of the SUS-AU vote. This is going to be really tight, but I think the LDP have the advantage at present.<br /><br />In summary (in order of election):<br />ALP, LDP, KSO<br /><br />--DVC.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-39401690998636340682019-03-31T11:27:46.121+11:002019-03-31T11:27:46.121+11:00Ahhh, I see what you're doing there Kevin - li...Ahhh, I see what you're doing there Kevin - listing the parties in order of their surpluses. So if we assumed that everybody just voted 1, the remaining four seats would be filled by the first four on the list, same as if there was a highest-remainder system. But I presume you've kept all the stats from last time as to how many voters for each party generally bother to mark 2nd and later prefs and how they tend to be distributed. Can you (have you already?) run a sim to see if any of the lower-ranked parties will jump up the ladder as prefs are distributed, or whether they'll stay in the same order as now? If so, please disclose. (All your readers will allow, of course, for the fact that the votes counted so far might not be representative of the State as a whole.)Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-91874808293796809222019-03-26T17:18:01.836+11:002019-03-26T17:18:01.836+11:00First numbers from the progressive count check are...First numbers from the progressive count check are starting to come in.<br />https://vtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/lc/state/cc/fp_summaryTim Qhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12411546603290397167noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78609962234780972822019-03-24T17:25:53.464+11:002019-03-24T17:25:53.464+11:00" It may be that KSO are more successful than..." It may be that KSO are more successful than AJP in outperforming their Lower House vote in the upper house."<br /><br />This will be interesting. It's worth thinking about which seats KSO actually contested. So, they didn't contest regional seats where they wouldn't expect much support. That would indicate that their vote would be well down on the average calculated. However, they also did not run in the seat of Sydney! Apparently because Alex Greenwich, who increased his majority as an Independent in the seat, is the most supportive of their platform (I got this explanation from a dedicated KSO supporter). As best I can tell Greenwich did not issue an HTV for the upper house. His lower case HTV was a just vote 1 card, so his supporters have been given no guidance as to which way to vote in the upper house. It could be that KSO gets a large vote share in the seat of Sydney that offsets some of the lower share in the bush.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.com