tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post8923603185143158964..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Eden-Monaro By-Election 2020: How Loseable Is It?Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-19024688196557690232020-06-11T18:07:32.046+10:002020-06-11T18:07:32.046+10:00I have absolutely no idea. I have absolutely no idea. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-54906588210888770062020-06-11T17:18:29.692+10:002020-06-11T17:18:29.692+10:00What on earth would possess a party to ditch a nam...What on earth would possess a party to ditch a name like "Australian Country Party", which many micro-parties and some not-so-micro parties would probably kill to have, in favour of a bland pile of nothing like "Australian Federation Party"?Geoffreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02047145278279336626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-7261840218036391532020-05-11T13:00:58.809+10:002020-05-11T13:00:58.809+10:00I don't think it will be a big factor. The ci...I don't think it will be a big factor. The circumstances under which an incumbent departs seem to have little impact on the size of swings at by-elections. For instance one might expect a party to get some kind of sympathy bounce when an incumbent dies as opposed to when an opponent resigns, especially since a lot of resignations are unforced and some treat the voters with contempt, but the average swing in by-elections caused by deaths and resignations is much the same. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-13087663059467305652020-05-11T11:04:25.954+10:002020-05-11T11:04:25.954+10:00Kevin,
Will Mike Kelly retiring because of ill he...Kevin,<br /><br />Will Mike Kelly retiring because of ill health and then immediately taking a job with a defence company have any impact on Labor's chances in this bye-election?<br /><br />dedwardsdedwardshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11754130418220136533noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-15913470913956240902020-05-08T17:35:18.757+10:002020-05-08T17:35:18.757+10:00Hi Kevin,
As usual, your article is excellent.
B...Hi Kevin,<br /><br />As usual, your article is excellent.<br /><br />But First Dog on the Moon is good too!!!<br /><br />https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/08/australia-were-full-party-or-an-independent-who-will-win-the-eden-monaro-by-election<br /><br />dedwards<br />dedwardshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11754130418220136533noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-83047588721783249812020-05-08T10:29:35.815+10:002020-05-08T10:29:35.815+10:00Interesting summary. I wonder how much the "a...Interesting summary. I wonder how much the "anyone but the other mob" plays out in these sort of things?Barryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08664699802718952449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-58993444436375178342020-05-06T15:47:26.995+10:002020-05-06T15:47:26.995+10:00the manner of the 2 glamour candidates withdrawl h...the manner of the 2 glamour candidates withdrawl has harmed the non labor vote infighting & petty hatreds...... who would vote non labor now in Eden Monaro?<br />Mickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02784376200127303021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-9021567225880064002020-05-05T13:07:28.136+10:002020-05-05T13:07:28.136+10:00Thank you for the detailed, 'slightly wonky...Thank you for the detailed, 'slightly wonky' section on the personal vote. I hadn't seen such an analysis before and found it very interesting. As a newly arrived voter in the southern, coastal part of the electorate two things have struck me:<br />1. The economic devastation already in place before the arrival of the Covid 19 crisis. A lot of people and businesses needed support that hadn't arrived.<br />2. The significant social media presence of Kristy McBain through her work as Mayor. Very sophisticated compared to other local government efforts I have seen with a focus on active involvement of the community. I think there may have been some inkling of a future by-election requirement.<br />We will see if these factors influence the result.Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00240199082051466286noreply@blogger.com