tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post8822884218646029424..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: The Keating Aggregation 1990-1993Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-71529979942207120772021-06-25T10:39:27.670+10:002021-06-25T10:39:27.670+10:00Just sent it.
It's interesting to note how mu...Just sent it.<br /><br />It's interesting to note how much of a shock Keating's re-election seemed to be to large segments of the media when in actuality he probably would still have survived had the final polls been correct. My guess is that after years of Hawke running relatively close races despite his sky-high approval and Better PM scores, few people thought Keating would be re-elected with net-negative Better PM/approval scores (if I'm not mistaken, he's just one of two PMs to do so, the other being Howard in 1998, although of course Howard lost the 2pp so it wasn't so much defying his approval score as luck + good marginal sandbagging).<br /><br />I also suspect the fact that the Coalition led Labor on primary votes probably misled many commentators. Without a 2pp + pendulum conversion, one might look at Labor being behind on primary votes and conclude that they were going to lose.Ethanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07226942488996369403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-50394497095754935542021-06-24T22:54:22.383+10:002021-06-24T22:54:22.383+10:00Yes please! That would be handy as I don't be...Yes please! That would be handy as I don't believe I ever did find a 1993 pre-election pendulum anywhere online. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-27143176144596861442021-06-24T22:41:27.102+10:002021-06-24T22:41:27.102+10:00Hi Kevin,
I've got a pendulum for the 1993 fe...Hi Kevin,<br /><br />I've got a pendulum for the 1993 federal election plus the 2pp swing for each seat from the AEC archives. Converting each seat back to its pre-1993 2pp figure, then applying a +0.1% swing to the Coalition, I find that only one seat would have fallen on a uniform swing (Paterson, 49.97% Liberal). Of course, I will note that the final AGB had the Coalition a bit further ahead than the Morgan and Newspoll (I get 51.9% Coalition 2pp, off primaries of ALP 43 LNC 48 Dems 3 Oth 6) and the final Newspoll did have a published 2pp (50.5% to Coalition).<br /><br />If I toss in the AGB poll and the published Newspoll 2pp instead of using a last-elections conversion (i.e. the best case for the Coalition from polling), I find a 2pp of 50.6%. Applying a uniform swing of +0.5% to the Coalition, they would be stuck at 69 seats (70 seats, minus North Sydney which was won by Independent Ted Mack) to Labor's 76 (77 seats, minus WIlls which was won by Independent Phil Cleary), with Labor still in majority.<br /><br />I can email you the pendulum data if you'd like.Ethanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07226942488996369403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-27857203648170176152018-03-13T22:58:14.308+11:002018-03-13T22:58:14.308+11:00An another leader of the Coalition could achieve s...An another leader of the Coalition could achieve such a comeback in the opinion polls and even increase the Coalition's majority at the next election. Just one issue namely massive cuts to the immigration intake could trigger a huge shift in the opinion polls hitting both Labor and lesser degree Greens support.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-42509497863353554662018-03-13T10:12:25.414+11:002018-03-13T10:12:25.414+11:00Probably. Hawke's efforts to replace Keating ...Probably. Hawke's efforts to replace Keating with other talent such as John Kerin were hardly a stunning success. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-91207974828955295922018-03-13T10:02:33.947+11:002018-03-13T10:02:33.947+11:00Ahhhh, memory lane! I remember thinking that Keati...Ahhhh, memory lane! I remember thinking that Keating deserved severe punishment for the "recession we had to have" remark - but punishing him by electing Hewson & Co would be punishing the same people that PK was being so callous about. I also remember picking up the Courier Snail on the morning of the election, with a last-few-days poll across the top of the page showing Labor level or just ahead, and thinking for the first time "Shed! (or a word to that effect) - Labor could win this!" Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-60780205851396633042018-03-13T06:30:31.687+11:002018-03-13T06:30:31.687+11:00When Keating retreated to the Backbench and Hawke ...When Keating retreated to the Backbench and Hawke unable to respond effectively to Fightback does that confirm Keathing's claim that it was he the economic genius behind Hawake's government and not Hawke?Peter T. Hannahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11323837487074583988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-60729115340344146812018-03-13T05:21:53.486+11:002018-03-13T05:21:53.486+11:00Very interesting Kevin and thanksVery interesting Kevin and thanksBarryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08664699802718952449noreply@blogger.com