tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post8498141968860226144..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Poll Roundup: Number 29Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-57247443381286443772018-04-05T22:21:19.843+10:002018-04-05T22:21:19.843+10:00Better PM (often called preferred PM) is a messy i...Better PM (often called preferred PM) is a messy indicator that tends to skew to the incumbent PM, whoever they are. If the 2PP is 50-50 then the incumbent PM will normally be about 16 points ahead. For a 2PP of 47-53 the incumbent PM will normally be about level. Turnbull has often pulled above his weight in that regard, but currently isn't doing so by much.<br /><br />Turnbull has generally done much better than Abbott on better PM indicators, and this difference applies even once the comparison is adjusted to control for the 2PPs and the personal ratings of the leaders at different times. <br /><br />Historically, PM netsat is a better predictor of 2PP than better PM is. Rather mysteriously, it seems to function as a leading predictor (that is, movement in PM ratings tends to happen ahead of 2PP movement). PM netsat is a direct measure of popularity and shows that Turnbull is not popular - his ratings have been consistently pretty bad since the last election, though not quite as bad as Abbott's.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-30077834161196949872018-04-05T18:20:19.459+10:002018-04-05T18:20:19.459+10:00Given Turnbull is ahead as preferred PM, does it r...Given Turnbull is ahead as preferred PM, does it really make sense for him to be blamed for their TPP losses? Doesn't that polling suggest he's actually more popular than the coalition average, and thus it's the rest of the party that's more to blame, not so much him?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14837995089432559746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-21141588014266958342018-04-02T15:40:49.558+10:002018-04-02T15:40:49.558+10:00The speakership conventions on tied votes don'...The speakership conventions on tied votes don't apply when a government has a one-seat majority. The Speaker will vote with the government.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-35392493953927662412018-04-02T09:24:33.431+10:002018-04-02T09:24:33.431+10:00Hi Kevin,
Again, slightly off topic, but I have s...Hi Kevin,<br /><br />Again, slightly off topic, but I have seen nothing on this in the MSM.<br /><br />The new Tasmanian Lower House has 25 members - 13 LIB, 10 LAB and 2 GRN. Assuming the speaker is from the LIB ranks, that will leave the floor of the house with 12 LIB, 10 LAB and 2 GRN.<br /><br />What happens in the event of a tied vote, when LAB and GRN both vote against LIB? Can the speaker vote with the LIBs or does convention say that he has to vote against the motion?dedwardshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11754130418220136533noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-44740309675215383852018-04-01T17:11:40.508+10:002018-04-01T17:11:40.508+10:00There was one in the Whitlam years that Stephen Mu...There was one in the Whitlam years that Stephen Murray has mentioned: <br /><br />https://twitter.com/smurray38/status/980014929884278785<br /><br />As I understand this one, Carling-Jenkins who was probably opposed to the bill was ill and there is a dispute about whether she asked for a pair. Either she didn't ask (possibly an omission) or she asked and it wasn't granted. The bill was then set to pass because she was absent until the Liberals connived, in an extremely sneaky fashion, to extract a pair from Labor then renege on it. The defeat of the bill is what the will of the parliament would have been had all been present; it would have been tied 20-20. So it seems less outrageous than if a decision was reached as a result that would never have been the will of the parliament had all members been present. Plus I tend to agree that sitting on Good Friday is just silly. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-26573532745625037042018-04-01T15:07:42.516+10:002018-04-01T15:07:42.516+10:00Hi Kevin, this is OK topic but...
I'm interes...Hi Kevin, this is OK topic but...<br /><br />I'm interested in your take on what happened in Victoria with the broken pair agreement. I thought such an action must surely be unprecedented, but apparently Gorton was involved in something similar. I can't glean much online about that or any other historical incidents. Do you have any insights?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.com