tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post8381676112016267012..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: NSW Election Live CommentsKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-39571932864386711782015-03-28T23:08:00.454+11:002015-03-28T23:08:00.454+11:00Ah, right, yes I forgot the electoral system. AJP ...Ah, right, yes I forgot the electoral system. AJP does have Greens high on their how-to-vote, but you're absolutely right, they have to be eliminated before Greens for that to mean anything.<br /><br />Also, ABC put Ballina back in Green column. Odd glitch.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05947377166619293759noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-58286552583506209552015-03-28T22:44:27.257+11:002015-03-28T22:44:27.257+11:00On current primaries the third Green is likely to ...On current primaries the third Green is likely to be excluded before the last AJP candidate, though this might change in late counting. The bigger problem is that preference flows are pretty weak in the NSW Upper House because if voters just vote 1 in a party box their vote exhausts (despite which most continue doing it). For a party like AJP there will probably be a higher percentage of voters numbering multiple above the line boxes but even so these preferences won't flow solidly. Past experience is that the final seats are basically first past the post unless they're very close.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-9848380018648538392015-03-28T22:22:16.754+11:002015-03-28T22:22:16.754+11:00I think Animal Justice Party preferences will flow...I think Animal Justice Party preferences will flow straight to Greens and give them a third seat in the upper house, that's if the Green primary doesn't improve on its own.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05947377166619293759noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-47803611548834406172015-03-28T17:31:34.579+11:002015-03-28T17:31:34.579+11:00I had that Queensland one in mind as I wrote. Lab...I had that Queensland one in mind as I wrote. Labor finished up with 51.1% so it was actually 2.9 points out on the 2PP.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-45721199486407633332015-03-28T17:19:28.486+11:002015-03-28T17:19:28.486+11:00Exit polls are a bit rubbery and often a few 2PP p...Exit polls are a bit rubbery and often a few 2PP points out, but that is very much in line with what is to be expected.<br />------------<br /><br />you are kidding right galaxy exit poll <br /><br /> in QLD had labor 54-56Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09134469867667739038noreply@blogger.com