tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post7876982737001643962..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Victoria 2018 LiveKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-53940203572968823262018-11-25T18:43:39.770+11:002018-11-25T18:43:39.770+11:00Could it have something to do with the holidays st...Could it have something to do with the holidays starting? It appears that the majority of the disparity between pre-polls and polling day are in the more affluent suburbs - areas that are much more likely to have families heading off on holidays around this time of year. <br /><br />In 2014, the final day for year 12s was not until the week after election day. But this year it was the week before and they'll be starting schoolies now. It could be more affluent, private school families who are natural Liberal voters were planning a trip this time around?<br /><br />Doesn't line up with Wentworth, but no reason to assume they're related. 2 points of data don't make a trend.BlackVegiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06380314430186538856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-21822536714909667012018-11-25T10:34:50.731+11:002018-11-25T10:34:50.731+11:00Kevin, thanks for your late night, so that there w...Kevin, thanks for your late night, so that there was a nice analysis ready and waiting in the morning for those of us that went to bed at a reasonable hour!<br /><br /><br /><br />Deanohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02402296752349739844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-11044154232165227332018-11-25T01:52:50.931+11:002018-11-25T01:52:50.931+11:00I have a hypothesis here: Liberal voters are more ...I have a hypothesis here: Liberal voters are more rule-abiding. Many Liberal voters who would have voted early before didn't because of the requirement to have a reason. With that removed they may have become more likely to prepoll.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-77111815397865399222018-11-25T01:42:54.888+11:002018-11-25T01:42:54.888+11:00In Wentworth there was a difference between pre po...In Wentworth there was a difference between pre poll and polling day and explained by Liberals having a poor campaign in the final week. Whereas today there is a similar pattern but I haven’t seen Liberals having a poorer final week. Perhaps in both cases people who vote early are just more rusted on or less influenced by the campaigning.Jwwebsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00183849047862600012noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-5780851832735556062018-11-25T01:05:28.562+11:002018-11-25T01:05:28.562+11:00I hope that I will find that the BTL/ATL votes are...I hope that I will find that the BTL/ATL votes are enough to stuff a lot of the preference harvester flows when I have a look at it. It's not only exhaust that will help, it's also preference scatter (in fact that will help even more). No-one last time except some very minor groups was over about the low 20s BTL from memory.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-1984140443754190182018-11-25T00:18:45.015+11:002018-11-25T00:18:45.015+11:00Christopher Burge - Now I see it. It depends more ...Christopher Burge - Now I see it. It depends more on the Green surplus, and what percentage it is Green/Socialist that determines the result.<br /><br />We appear to be watching the same race, but you're definitely a bit ahead of me! :) BlackVegiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06380314430186538856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-22981988651782137602018-11-25T00:16:07.812+11:002018-11-25T00:16:07.812+11:00Hey Kevin, as a Tasmanian are you proud of the hig...Hey Kevin, as a Tasmanian are you proud of the high rates of BTL voting for some parties? Reason in particular is currently tracking around 56:44 BTL vs ATL - off the top of your head, are there any times that's been higher?<br /><br />Having said that, there does seem to be a real "left"/"right" divide on BTL voting. Much higher numbers of Socialist, Reason, Greens, (& some Labor) votes cast BTL compared to any of the "right-wing" parties. Could make a difference come the push of the button if many of the BTL votes exhaust. (Especially the Labor ones, which I suspect were mainly 1-5 down the line within party votes).BlackVegiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06380314430186538856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-75803153727683031432018-11-25T00:06:11.738+11:002018-11-25T00:06:11.738+11:00Christopher Burge - I'm not sure I follow your...Christopher Burge - I'm not sure I follow your logic? Greens have preferenced Hinch over Reason. For Fiona to benefit from Greens (ABV) preferences, Hinch needs to be out of the count already so she'd want the Greens to take a long time to get to quota.BlackVegiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06380314430186538856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-9672663725925992082018-11-24T23:41:37.813+11:002018-11-24T23:41:37.813+11:00Worth noting that BTL numbers are looking almost T...Worth noting that BTL numbers are looking almost Tasmanian statewide, but especially in Northern Metro. 10% of ALP votes are below the line, 29% of Greens 1 votes are below the line, 38% of Socialists votes are below the line, and 56% (!) of Reason’s 1 votes are below the line.<br /><br />Could make counting exceptionally complicated for the Upper House compared to past elections.Christopher Burgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18352344079470009077noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-30018242299380395982018-11-24T23:17:29.496+11:002018-11-24T23:17:29.496+11:00Right now it looks like it will depend on whether ...Right now it looks like it will depend on whether one or both of the Greens and Liberals get over a quota. If the Greens are over a quota early, Fiona should be home with Socialist preferences. If the Greens are sitting at 90% of the quota when the Socialists are excluded, the Green preferences go to Hinch over her and she is excluded.<br /><br />If the cards fall right both Fiona and the Hinch candidate could get elected and the Liberals win no seats.Christopher Burgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18352344079470009077noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78590619713163674852018-11-24T23:10:58.815+11:002018-11-24T23:10:58.815+11:00Interesting situation developing in Northern Metro...Interesting situation developing in Northern Metro Upper House: based on early above the line votes, it looks like whether the Greens’ Ratnam gets a quota on primary vote or not will impact who gets elected. If she does, her surplus will be tiny, and the Greens will be excluded early, with their above the line vote flowing to the Socialists and then Hinch Justice before Reason (for what reason they did that I have no idea). If that happens, when the Socialists get excluded their above the line vote will flow to Fiona, and she will be above both Hinch and Labor. The ALP’s 3rd candidate will be excluded and Fiona will be elected. Almost all of the vote held by Fiona flows to the Hinch Justice party, and it will be neck and neck between them and the Liberals for the 5th and final seat. I would think that leakage will impact Hinch Justice more, and the Liberals are sitting on almost a whole quota, but I don’t know who is favored.<br /><br />If Ratnam fails to get a quota before the Socialists are excluded, the Socialists’ vote will transfer to her and she will be elected. The Greens’ votes will make up about 3/4 of the surplus and the above the line votes will flow to Hinch. The Socialists’ votes will flow to Fiona, but it will not be enough and she would be excluded. Her preferences mainly flow to the Hinch Justice Party, and so Carmela Dangiandis would be elected. I haven’t calculated the surplus flow but considering that the Liberals will be just below a quota and the ALP on a surplus of around 2/3 of a quota I would think the Liberals get the 5th and final spot.<br /><br />I haven’t been following the lead up to the elections so I have no idea whether or not this situation was foreseen. Somehow it feels that this is absurd, but I can’t figure out whether it means the surplus calculation rules need to change.<br /><br /><br />I am rooting for the first situation, because I think Fiona Patten is an outstanding legislator. It does appear changing her party’s name was a poor decision. I think Fiona Patten’s Sex Party could have gotten at least half a quota.<br /><br />Also, has there ever been a proportional election for a federal or state parliament in which the Coalition or Labor failed to get any seats in one of the regions? I am rooting for it to happen here as well.Christopher Burgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18352344079470009077noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-18379555372165553372018-11-24T23:00:54.815+11:002018-11-24T23:00:54.815+11:00I will be posting preliminary comments about polli...I will be posting preliminary comments about polling at the head of the postcount thread once all numbers are final for night. Full roundup of polling when all election results are complete in several weeks. It's possible we have seen some hedging here - it's been an apparent factor in recent seat polling. And yes state polling is less reliable for the reason mentioned.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-39933070820771724022018-11-24T22:57:50.720+11:002018-11-24T22:57:50.720+11:00*Last comment should have said Derryn Hinch Justic...*Last comment should have said Derryn Hinch Justice Party winning off DLP preferences. It's late, and been looking at changing tables all night, sorry!BlackVegiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06380314430186538856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-60562857135418487842018-11-24T22:56:28.842+11:002018-11-24T22:56:28.842+11:00Based on the calculator, there's a real chance...Based on the calculator, there's a real chance that this costs Fiona Patten her seat. <br /><br />Right now ABC is projecting the Liberal Democrats to win off DLP preferences.<br /><br />DLP is sitting around 1.5% for every other metro region. If we assume that 2.5% should have gone to Labor, then Reason gets the preferences and is elected instead. That's a pretty big deal if you ask meBlackVegiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06380314430186538856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78600723853413727062018-11-24T22:42:29.765+11:002018-11-24T22:42:29.765+11:00Well that was unexpected. I thought this was goin...Well that was unexpected. I thought this was going to be swings and roundabouts with a chance of a minority government or a slightly increased majority. <br /><br />Would be very interested in a post election washup of polling with potential implications for NSW and Federal elections. Would I be right in thinking the relative paucity of state polls means the confidence or predictive power is lower than federally where you have a larger and more regular series?D Loweryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04552549191791754838noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-85266317058653694212018-11-24T21:46:16.152+11:002018-11-24T21:46:16.152+11:00Need to wait to see what the final result is but i...Need to wait to see what the final result is but it does look like the polls will be well short. One ReachTEL had 56-44 which might be close. I think pollsters might get a bit conservative if their data show massive blowouts - they were mostly herded around 53-54. I also question some of the preferencing assumptions. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-7473369433150858632018-11-24T21:42:05.065+11:002018-11-24T21:42:05.065+11:00In Upper House Northern Metro, looks like a lot of...In Upper House Northern Metro, looks like a lot of people mistook "Labour DLP" for Labor - they're at 4.11% of first preferences which seems far too high.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10695203088857845216noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-30831403679679514122018-11-24T21:31:59.476+11:002018-11-24T21:31:59.476+11:00Just a quick question, how come the polls were so ...Just a quick question, how come the polls were so wrong? Usually the polls here are fairly accurate, I mean last time it was within 0.1%! <br /><br />This times it's even beyond the the margin of error. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13103201126361800784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-22707155317573514002018-11-24T20:18:06.956+11:002018-11-24T20:18:06.956+11:00Joe Garra in Werribee is polling very well, probab...Joe Garra in Werribee is polling very well, probably won't be able to do enough to unseat the Treasurer, but likely to finish second....and not many seats are going to havea swing against Labor....<br /><br />Very low count figures though, so I am way too premature with these comments.Deanohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02402296752349739844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-90695476318022131292018-11-24T19:56:31.540+11:002018-11-24T19:56:31.540+11:00Kevin, it looks like the polls have undercooked La...Kevin, it looks like the polls have undercooked Labor support. Does that have implications for federal polling?FREDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02594165299175127206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-24941998835961517042018-11-24T19:27:58.057+11:002018-11-24T19:27:58.057+11:00Little bit early for Antony to call this I think.....Little bit early for Antony to call this I think... but it's looking very bad for the L/NP.Kasey Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17183320601719206423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-70566480829048725852018-11-24T18:45:29.960+11:002018-11-24T18:45:29.960+11:00I would like to point out that Matthew Guy did mor...I would like to point out that Matthew Guy did more campaigning Steven Marshall (premier of South Australia) than Scott Morrison<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03195569228572672659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-83074864911527782992018-11-24T16:25:13.721+11:002018-11-24T16:25:13.721+11:00Hi Kevin, been reading your blog for a while now, ...Hi Kevin, been reading your blog for a while now, just wanted to say thanks for your all your work on this and insightful commentary. As a Victorian, I will be following closely tonight.Deanohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02402296752349739844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-85017978225140811862018-11-24T15:45:12.367+11:002018-11-24T15:45:12.367+11:00Great work as always Dr Bonham. Moved to Victoria ...Great work as always Dr Bonham. Moved to Victoria recently, first time voting in a State election. Was disappointed to work through all the preference flows using the ABC tool - will be interesting to watch how it all plays out.Pip Fowerakerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04010421175122876273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-41062006814583209462018-11-24T14:42:28.197+11:002018-11-24T14:42:28.197+11:00I wouldn't abolish them as a single 40 seat ho...I wouldn't abolish them as a single 40 seat house is far too unwieldy. Having regions makes it much harder for parties polling small vote shares to gain seats, but I've found that if Senate-style voting was introduced minor parties could be competitive on votes around 5-6%. If someone wants to argue for more proportional representation for them then an option would be to reform the structure to, for example, 5 regions of 8.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.com