tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post7851098714016538857..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: State Election Post-Count Thread: BraddonKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-21003701848734610042014-03-30T11:53:45.694+11:002014-03-30T11:53:45.694+11:00As a long time Green voter, I have found Brenton B...As a long time Green voter, I have found Brenton Best's denigration of the Labor-Green alliance bewildering and mainly the sounds of a man proving the old adage that empty vessels make the most noise. I directed my preferences to the Liberals in the hope of getting rid of this person who contributes negativity as his main form of discourse. We need a diverse range of open-minded and positive-minded individuals representing our hopes for a better future. he is not one of these and now can become a jobs detective for himself.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14682256711372130404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-24477963213213885762014-03-27T20:43:33.771+11:002014-03-27T20:43:33.771+11:00Actually that 471 was his share of Kevin Morgan...Actually that 471 was his share of Kevin Morgan's 4892. From O'Halloran's 5267 Best got 822 directly and another 659 via Bryan Green's surplus - not bad given that 2283 ended up in exhaust.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-4023137601497009132014-03-27T18:16:06.642+11:002014-03-27T18:16:06.642+11:00From the 5267 votes from the greens, Best got 471....From the 5267 votes from the greens, Best got 471.<br /><br />Karma, baby.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-89402759413545722052014-03-27T12:11:44.035+11:002014-03-27T12:11:44.035+11:00The scrutiny sheets are up in the offices, just no...The scrutiny sheets are up in the offices, just not online.<br /><br />I've had a couple thoughts about the process: one is that the system would work significantly better with a requirement to vote to 10 rather than to 5; two, that elected candidates really should continue to receive preferences and have those passed through. On the second, I can see why they don't in terms of time costs, but at the theoretical point when the calculation goes electronic, there are a few touches to the method that should be added (elected candidates not treated as excluded, exhausted votes reduce the quota, last candidate elected)intuitivereasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444634755480881972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-7164896627215263102014-03-27T10:04:54.957+11:002014-03-27T10:04:54.957+11:00In both Denison and Bass the final PUP exclusion s...In both Denison and Bass the final PUP exclusion slightly favoured Labor with 48% and 30% respectively exhausting. I don't have the exact figures for Franklin and in Lyons there were no Liberal candidates remaining at that point.<br /><br />It looks like the exhaust rate from the Greens' final exclusion in Franklin was very low with leakage plus preferences from the party strongly favouring Labor there. Shame scrutiny sheets for completed counts are not up yet.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-11060871613803828142014-03-26T23:53:29.355+11:002014-03-26T23:53:29.355+11:00Looks like this will end up 4:1:0 now. Given the f...Looks like this will end up 4:1:0 now. Given the full tickets of both the Greens and Palmer, it would be a surprise to see enough votes not exhaust to change the standings of the remaining candidates. Bryan Green may or may not reach quota from the exclusion of Morgan and O'Halloran; he needs around 11% of what is excluded in those two counts to reach quota prior to the elimination of Best. The challenge for Best is even greater; he needs to pick up around 1500 more votes than Rylah from those two exclusions; can't see it happening.<br /><br />intuitivereasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444634755480881972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-75755249330075663532014-03-17T21:08:04.430+11:002014-03-17T21:08:04.430+11:00It just goes to show how sexist Braddonites are, i...It just goes to show how sexist Braddonites are, imo. Joan Rylah has been campaigning strongly for far longer than all except Brooks. She banged nails into the forestry coffin all over the state, whinged about there being no breeding stock if too many young women leave the state and it still appears she might miss out. <br /><br />Annie (for some reason blogger won't let me post in personal name)Drop your Jeans...alterationshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13369575754194398763noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-59566206939287651362014-03-17T19:20:27.317+11:002014-03-17T19:20:27.317+11:00After the counting today, I've found I had bee...After the counting today, I've found I had been under a misapprehension as to the nature of the Robson rotation. It not only rolls but reverses, which disperses the donkey vote much better through the latter preferences. Also, the level of donkey voting is much lower than I'd anticipated; I'd been assuming about 80% of the votes of the lowest candidate in each party; today's counting suggests this should be at most 50%. I'll rerun my cuts when I get a chance, but I've stuff to do tonight and more counting tomorrow.<br /><br /><br />intuitivereasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444634755480881972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-76922819199855103302014-03-16T22:44:47.698+11:002014-03-16T22:44:47.698+11:00I also got Green in off O'Halloran but I didn&...I also got Green in off O'Halloran but I didn't even quite get Jaensch in after the elimination of Morgan. (Had Best, Rylah, Jaensch all without quota with Rylah about 1000 up on Best). That said I was using more muted preference flow assumptions re Jaensch/Rylah, which may turn out to be completely wrong.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-82830601304535856732014-03-16T20:43:05.833+11:002014-03-16T20:43:05.833+11:00Actually, not quite so. The original break up fro...Actually, not quite so. The original break up from the excess with Brooks and Rockliff was split in ratio with the votes received. There after, even split apart from the donkey cascade.intuitivereasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444634755480881972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-56526856623821022252014-03-16T20:40:04.208+11:002014-03-16T20:40:04.208+11:00I think it was an even split, but allowing for the...I think it was an even split, but allowing for the donkey cascade.intuitivereasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444634755480881972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-46721537535385436952014-03-16T19:47:33.200+11:002014-03-16T19:47:33.200+11:00I will be trying a detailed model of this too. Wh...I will be trying a detailed model of this too. What assumption are you making about the split of the Lib surpluses between Jaensch and Rylah? Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-23004447889191324942014-03-16T18:42:03.456+11:002014-03-16T18:42:03.456+11:00With my spread, I get Green elected on the elimina...With my spread, I get Green elected on the elimination of O'Halloran, and Jaensh within 100 votes of being prior to the elimination of Morgan (after exhausted votes are removed).<br /><br />As you say, Best is a long way behind. I think that this will be four Liberals as well.intuitivereasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444634755480881972noreply@blogger.com