tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post762651569807056757..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Fear And Loathing With Victorian Upper House Preference FlowsKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-33859044531783012932018-11-22T15:19:25.126+11:002018-11-22T15:19:25.126+11:00Yes AJP in Western Vic is quite plausible. Yes AJP in Western Vic is quite plausible. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-55294229983791458402018-11-22T12:05:44.804+11:002018-11-22T12:05:44.804+11:00Is it possible Animal Justice Party could take the...Is it possible Animal Justice Party could take the last seat in West Vic? They seem best placed out of the left-leaning bloc of votes as they’re the only one who could benefit from Health Party preferences ahead of DHJP. They would need approx. 8.5% combined from VEP (column 1), Reason, Labor #3 and Health plus the Greens polling less than their total but enough to push them over quota. Vic Socialists (2.5%?) and Reason seem to be longshot chances as well.David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-24553925099749106612018-11-22T02:20:01.016+11:002018-11-22T02:20:01.016+11:00I've managed to get DHJP off 2.8% provided Rea...I've managed to get DHJP off 2.8% provided Reason don't do too badly (and outlast AJP in Column 1). I've also got Aussie Battlers and even Transport Matters (would need a decent primary though, seems unlikely) in some simulations.<br /><br />The calculator has 0.98% by default for the Australian Country Party. I can see in 2014 the Australian Country Alliance got about that. Are they the same party?David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-25225229136795377492018-11-21T21:10:25.875+11:002018-11-21T21:10:25.875+11:00That's interesting. I was able to replicate t...That's interesting. I was able to replicate this as well. They seem to have a cutoff early in the count where they have to be over Animal Justice Party - if they are then they're off and running.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-69891381384734571412018-11-21T21:09:33.593+11:002018-11-21T21:09:33.593+11:00Yes I keep getting one of these two micros in this...Yes I keep getting one of these two micros in this seat pretty much whatever I do.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-76212525648593922682018-11-21T21:00:13.983+11:002018-11-21T21:00:13.983+11:00Cheers Kevin. Yes I look to have written off Trans...Cheers Kevin. Yes I look to have written off Transport Matters far too easily. I have them winning the seat from 0.6% in one scenario. Their best hope looks to be from Liberal preferences. If the Liberals can poll around 34-34.33% their third candidate would likely be excluded before Transport Matters and those prefs. might lift TM over AJP or LDLP.David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-26455519070948713572018-11-21T20:46:12.782+11:002018-11-21T20:46:12.782+11:00Its possible to get either SFF or Liberal Democrat...Its possible to get either SFF or Liberal Democrats in Eastern Vic by just fiddling with Voluntary Euthanasia, Animal Justice and Reason party's votes. If Animal Justice is up slightly (drawn group A), Euthanasia down (much more of a moot issue this election) and Reason are down a bit too (much less catchy name, and far less support for Patten out that way) Lib Dems could win the seat. Especially as they have Group C with Liberals way down at P.BlackVegiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06380314430186538856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-4185894153328282282018-11-21T20:31:13.076+11:002018-11-21T20:31:13.076+11:00I found a scenario where Group D won off 2.1% even...I found a scenario where Group D won off 2.1% even with Transport Matters not getting eliminated early. The key in the few I checked quickly was beating DHJP. Interesting - could be difficult for them to get enough primaries.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-68296884644434051982018-11-21T19:39:11.790+11:002018-11-21T19:39:11.790+11:00SE Metro looks interesting.
Domestic violence cam...SE Metro looks interesting.<br /><br />Domestic violence campaigners in Group D will benefit from strong preference flows. They should get preferences from Transport Matters fairly early in the count. If they are able to get ahead of either DHJP or Labour DLP they look to get the seat for sure. They might need 1.5-2% first preferences? I don't know how seriously they have been campaigning but they have got a tiny bit of press from what I can see.David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-90404730736562825122018-11-19T21:33:50.520+11:002018-11-19T21:33:50.520+11:00I've assumed that if Vic Socialists are gettin...I've assumed that if Vic Socialists are getting anything significant, Reason are doing something like what they did last time and Labor is up, then this will mean the Greens are down and don't break quota. Here is an example:<br /><br />Group A: Vote 1 Local Jobs <br />0.35<br />Group B: Aussie Battler Party <br />0.49<br />Group C: Sustainable Australia <br />0.57<br />Group D: Australian Country Party <br />0.16<br />Group E: Fiona Patten's Reason Party <br />2.99<br />Group F: Voluntary Euthanasia Party <br />0.29<br />Group G: Liberal Democrats <br />3.40<br />Group H: Health Australia Party <br />0.49<br />Group I: Liberal <br />21.22<br />Group J: Australian Greens <br />16.45<br />Group K: Transport Matters Party <br />0.49<br />Group L: Victorian Socialists <br />3.99<br />Group M: Labour DLP <br />1.84<br />Group N: Australian Liberty Alliance <br />0.49<br />Group O: Australian Labor Party <br />41.74<br />Group P: Derryn Hinch's Justice Party <br />2.43<br />Group Q: Animal Justice Party <br />1.47<br />Group R: Shooters Fishers and Farmers VIC <br />1.06<br />Group S: Hudson 4 NV <br />0.10<br />Total <br />100.02<br /><br />This example elects the Greens and Dagiandis (DHJP).Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-1144387674433470062018-11-19T17:10:47.430+11:002018-11-19T17:10:47.430+11:00Kevin, what are the numbers you're using for N...Kevin, what are the numbers you're using for North Metro? I've had Victorian Socialists win from as low as 3%, and seemingly safe to win on around 5%, courtesy of the Antony Green calculator. They seem to be getting favourable preferences from Greens, then Reason, then Labor.Jim Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06087616961291445375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-51151220916030664872018-11-18T23:53:36.721+11:002018-11-18T23:53:36.721+11:00Thanks Kevin. Having voted yesterday I have to con...Thanks Kevin. Having voted yesterday I have to concede first position might not be worth much. The polling box is so small compared to the sheet that my initial inclination was to put the sheet in the middle overlapping on both sides which actually made those parties in the middle fold more prominent.David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-3532839643044947322018-11-17T18:48:10.751+11:002018-11-17T18:48:10.751+11:00I'm a Vic Socialists member. We've knocked...I'm a Vic Socialists member. We've knocked on 85-90,000 doors in Northern Metro so far. We'll have covered all of Melbourne, Richmond, Northcote and Brunswick by the 24th but unfortunately we're unable to finish the whole of the other districts.<br /><br />It will be frustrating if we lose to a micro party with a micro primary, to say the least. On the other hand if we get up it will be a big victory over the Druery system. Thornbury Socialisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16672918802194829582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-64864845744582425192018-11-17T00:57:09.165+11:002018-11-17T00:57:09.165+11:00Yes Group A means first on the ballot. However I&...Yes Group A means first on the ballot. However I'm not sure that's worth very much, eg Aus Christians polled only 0.69% in a division where they were first, which is less than what they got in another where they were not first. V1LJ are only running in the upper house at all as what looks like some preference trading arrangement, since their sitting member has gone to contest the upper house instead. Could be wrong but I've been assuming they'll poll <1%. It is always best with these things to run a number of different scenarios.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-45876739796395527492018-11-17T00:47:26.858+11:002018-11-17T00:47:26.858+11:00Thanks Kevin. Am I right in thinking that because ...Thanks Kevin. Am I right in thinking that because Vote 1 Local Jobs is Group A they will have first position on the ballot? If I'm reading the 2014 results correctly, The Basics Rock 'N' Roll Party got around 1.5% from first position. Should I assume Vote 1 Local Jobs can poll similarly?David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-55832657206265364262018-11-16T23:17:37.770+11:002018-11-16T23:17:37.770+11:00There is at least some chance Greens won't rea...There is at least some chance Greens won't reach a quota in North Metro. After all they are having a pretty rocky campaign so far. The Socialists might compete with them and if Patten has built any personal vote that might also be a problem for them. That said I'm not sure Patten's vote will go up rather than down with the loss of the catchy Sex Party name.<br /><br />It is pretty hard to get the Liberals to 26%. If they have an unexpectedly good election with no real swing against their natural primary vote, and also pick up votes from the departed Christian micros, they might get close to that margin.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-85848689340246405562018-11-16T23:10:42.365+11:002018-11-16T23:10:42.365+11:00Yeah I have been door-knocked by the Vic Socialist...Yeah I have been door-knocked by the Vic Socialists as well, fairly active around here (Brunswick) at least.<br /><br />I'm having a bit of fun mucking about with the ABC calculator for Northern Metropolitan. Not quite sure of the best way to vote so that the Hinch party does not get elected.<br /><br />Do you think it's possible the Greens won't reach a full quota from first preferences? As Jim G has said, if Vic Socialists get around 5% you'd assume a portion of that would come out of the Greens. They polled 18.56 last time. This seems like Vic Socialists best hope as they could win from around 6% over 2.5% DHJP provided Fiona Patten does poorly enough to get excluded first.<br /><br />It seems like the Liberal party would need close to 26% (+4%) to have any shot at surviving exclusion ahead of DHJP. Is this kind of performance at all possible? There doesn't appear to be any danger of the Liberal party actually getting a second seat so I think I am safe to preference their second candidate ahead of Reason and Vic Socialists.David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-20910116941985971992018-11-16T20:04:10.135+11:002018-11-16T20:04:10.135+11:00FWIW, I’m in North Metro and my only visit to date...FWIW, I’m in North Metro and my only visit to date was the Socialists yesterday evening.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04128517327201935702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-52884293980012311352018-11-15T12:38:11.662+11:002018-11-15T12:38:11.662+11:00In further attempts I've found winning off 7% ...In further attempts I've found winning off 7% doesn't happen very often, more likely it would need to be higher than that.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-89535085134554455822018-11-15T11:30:43.652+11:002018-11-15T11:30:43.652+11:00I was also going to say the Vic Socialists are a s...I was also going to say the Vic Socialists are a strong chance in North Metro. Only ones campaigning for the upper house seat, popular lead candidate. 5% would not be surprising, but more likely to come out of Greens than anyone else. Not just one crank commenter.Jim Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06087616961291445375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-46270151126349755772018-11-15T10:50:03.167+11:002018-11-15T10:50:03.167+11:00Good point, I had just modelled them off the Senat...Good point, I had just modelled them off the Senate performance of the two parties with "socialist" in their name in 2016, who polled a combined 0.16%. (And this, rather than 1-2%, is common for socialists in multi-party GTV upper house contests, though there hasn't been a socialist attempt in an inner-city Victorian district under the current system.) I was not aware of the "large grassroots campaign". I see that their lead candidate is an established local councillor so they will probably at least do many times better than that. Nonetheless I have so much experience of the "socialist" tag being an electoral kiss of death that I wouldn't get too carried away with it.<br /><br />If I give Vic Socialists any significant vote (even say 2%) it has the effect of shoring up the Greens and ensuring they don't lose to Patten if they poll badly. Going up the scale if I give them 5%-ish they probably don't win but they start electing Patten if she gets 4%, and if I give them 6-7% they start winning. I'd just be amazed to see an openly socialist party poll anything like that well!<br /><br />I have added a note to my article commending Vic Socialists for preferencing according to their politics and not playing silly preference-trading games. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-796016041595804592018-11-15T08:37:39.809+11:002018-11-15T08:37:39.809+11:00In Northern Metro, you seem to be ignoring the pos...In Northern Metro, you seem to be ignoring the possibility that the Victorian Socialists large grassroots campaign - outdoing anything else on the ground - might push them above the usual 1-2% that socialist parties usually get. What vote are you assigning to VS?hoddlegridhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11980102412927915531noreply@blogger.com