tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post7454454362997895233..comments2024-03-17T21:29:12.457+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: How To Best Use Your Vote In The New Senate SystemKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-64062835430699989832016-10-17T10:46:35.201+11:002016-10-17T10:46:35.201+11:00Thanks Kevin, I spread your advice around the trap...Thanks Kevin, I spread your advice around the traps! fmarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12293358628518573479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-53382372057787684872016-10-10T20:21:06.969+11:002016-10-10T20:21:06.969+11:00I'm busy this week on remote fieldwork - I mig...I'm busy this week on remote fieldwork - I might have some time to cover ACT if there is a poll to interpret, but perhaps not otherwise. The advice for ACT as concerns numbering few vs many boxes is the same - the more boxes you number the more powerful your vote. Your vote can never help a candidate you dislike beat one you have numbered higher. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-61098226197495214682016-10-10T08:04:04.026+11:002016-10-10T08:04:04.026+11:00Hi Kevin,
Any chance of you doing a post like thi...Hi Kevin,<br /><br />Any chance of you doing a post like this for the upcoming ACT election? The intricacies of the Hare-Clark system here are lost on me, and no doubt many others. For example, a former independent minister is urging people to stop preferencing before they get to candidates they dislike so they don't help those folks get elected. I've no idea if this is smart or not...fmarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12293358628518573479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-19295325129803318732016-06-29T10:52:58.489+10:002016-06-29T10:52:58.489+10:00The nearest thing I'm aware of is that the Sen...The nearest thing I'm aware of is that the Senate card voting creator site (the first one listed in the tools list above) will produce a simulation of the below-the-line portion, but it will only do so after you've selected a number of preferred parties from the side, and it doesn't let you play around with the numbers at that stage, nor does it all fit on one screen. The other sites I mentioned have similar drawbacks and don't display all the candidates across the page. The clueyvoter one displays all the candidates in ballot order in two rows, so there's the option of picking a random selection of candidates, clicking "minimise preferences" and then manually deleting all the numbers it's put in to get a blank form. However neither of them prints anything that looks that much like the ballot paper - clueyvoter gives you the ballot paper in two rows and it would be possible to print it and then cut out and re-tape bits of it to get something that actually looks like one.<br /><br />If I remember, I'll suggest that the AEC restore the sample ballot paper at the next batch of JSCEM hearings. I expect they were so busy this time that a number of possible extra service items got overlooked.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-54460732961511629482016-06-29T08:49:15.118+10:002016-06-29T08:49:15.118+10:00Thanks for the helpful post, Kevin.
Last time aro...Thanks for the helpful post, Kevin.<br /><br />Last time around it was easy to access a 'true' sample ballot paper for Tasmania on the AEC website. This election they have only published an all states generic sample paper with fictitious candidates. As a below the line voter I find this less than ideal. The available candidates list is simply not as good for mentally mapping out my intended vote. Is there a true sample ballot somewhere online that I haven't found? Rohan Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14182192417664506658noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-8824655105969992342016-06-28T01:36:43.375+10:002016-06-28T01:36:43.375+10:00Ooh! I'm glad I keep referring back. I like dr...Ooh! I'm glad I keep referring back. I like drag and drop vote organisers better and hadn't seen that Finder one. http://www.donkeyvotie.org/ has a party only drag and drop voting tool, okay for above the line voters, that results in a two page print out (as well as an amusing party summary I don't entirely agree with). A friend made http://mysenatevote.org/, which is good for below the line and includes the independents. (There's a bit of a bug in the finder one if you vote ONLY for independents, I've discovered while playing with it.) It also prints to two pages, and in Qld at least, conveniently to fold your ballot in half and transcribe the first page, in a visually clear way. Cluey voter I've used in previous years just to do a preliminary sort into the five categories of two thumbs up, thumbs up, meh, thumbs down, two thumbs down, which is really useful. But the way the next page sets out is confusing to re order, and the print out runs to four awkward pages, so I have a tab with another voting tool ready. Glad to see the baton has been adequately passed from belowtheline and senate.io. Brisbanelattesipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16833739065671846825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-59987595552585749852016-06-25T16:35:06.278+10:002016-06-25T16:35:06.278+10:00Thanks for this excellent detailed post.
Pre-Poll...Thanks for this excellent detailed post.<br /><br />Pre-Polled today and it helped make up my mind to complete all the boxes (I was considering letting my vote exhaust after I'd voted for candidates I "like")<br /><br /><br />BristolAdelaideFattyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767939514117669698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-4606955171201550562016-06-21T20:39:13.924+10:002016-06-21T20:39:13.924+10:00If they are minor parties that are all really unco...If they are minor parties that are all really uncompetitive then no. They will all just get excluded early in the count and your #9 vote will flow to your preferred major at full value if your preferred major is in the hunt for one of the final seats. If one of the minor parties is competitive for a seat however then the (remote) risk you take is that the minor party you have preferenced might outlast your preferred major party in the cutup. If you actually want that minor party to beat your preferred major party then that's fine. If not, I'd be very careful about it.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-63713856714342591532016-06-21T18:59:37.594+10:002016-06-21T18:59:37.594+10:00Thanks Kevin,
So if I was to number 1 to 8 minor ...Thanks Kevin,<br /><br />So if I was to number 1 to 8 minor parties and then 9 my preferred major, will that hurt my preferred major's chances?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05118129740267969977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-73864005031957012692016-06-20T22:06:23.464+10:002016-06-20T22:06:23.464+10:00Voting 1 for a micro-party that has no chance of w...Voting 1 for a micro-party that has no chance of winning is most effective (if you don't mind nobody getting public funding for your vote). After that even if you just put all the remaining parties in order of your preference (which might mean putting a major 2) you're still better off than if you voted 1 above the line for a major. As I mentioned some people try advanced tricks to try to keep their preference going as long as possible (Unachimba's method of ordering the parties you like from weakest to strongest is sometimes a good idea) but it really can be difficult to calculate correctly, and anyone who wants to try working this out for themselves is on their own so far as advice from me goes. :)<br /><br />It's worth bearing in mind that after the first count a major party will usually soon be reduced to one competitive candidate, except in Tasmania where there may be below-the-line rebellions going on. So in terms of thinking about a second preference, they're just another party unless you are confident about what sort of spare vote they will have after all the quotas they get at the start.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-34193507615685946132016-06-20T19:28:50.338+10:002016-06-20T19:28:50.338+10:00Hi Kevin - I'm planning to number all the boxe...Hi Kevin - I'm planning to number all the boxes above the line and would like to know whether in influencing the last few Senate eats to vote it is more effective to vote 1 for a major and then number my preferred parties 2 onwards, or whether I should be voting 1 to something for minors and then numbering my preferred major fairly highly?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05118129740267969977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-85071705770582320372016-06-18T00:13:39.034+10:002016-06-18T00:13:39.034+10:00Thanks, useful to know.Thanks, useful to know.The blindmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02677139641680516700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-32147109880028188422016-06-17T21:49:03.465+10:002016-06-17T21:49:03.465+10:00The former. The mark for the Senate is based on t...The former. The mark for the Senate is based on the total vote for a group calculated over the whole state or territory. For the Reps it is based on the vote by candidate in each individual electorate. See http://www.aec.gov.au/parties_and_representatives/public_funding/index.htmKevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-38738277971919490112016-06-17T21:38:56.668+10:002016-06-17T21:38:56.668+10:00A question about election funding. Suppose you tac...A question about election funding. Suppose you tactically vote 1 for a party's 3rd or 4th candidate. If the party overall receives over the 4% quota, do they get funding from your vote, or do they only get funding for individual candidates who poll over 4% in the first round?The blindmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02677139641680516700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-36822910671753543222016-06-17T21:37:03.938+10:002016-06-17T21:37:03.938+10:00So you are saying that above the line party prefer...So you are saying that above the line party preferences no longer apply?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13618186828610452086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-81080288854722280272016-06-17T20:55:31.684+10:002016-06-17T20:55:31.684+10:00They are only directed down the lists of candidate...They are only directed down the lists of candidates for the specific parties you have preferenced. If you vote above the line, any party that you do not number can never receive your preference. If you vote below the line, any candidate who you do not number can never receive your preference. The How To Vote cards are just parties' advice to voters on how they should vote.<br /><br />Partly prompted by your question and the lack of any other online list I have written a piece listing many of the parties' recommended preference flows here:<br /><br />http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/list-of-senate-how-to-vote-card.htmlKevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-70412162913018436282016-06-17T20:45:07.779+10:002016-06-17T20:45:07.779+10:00So party preferences (above the line) are not auto...So party preferences (above the line) are not automatically directed?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13618186828610452086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-37941718104815839512016-06-16T23:03:23.463+10:002016-06-16T23:03:23.463+10:00Liberal https://www.liberal.org.au/how-to-vote
Gre...Liberal https://www.liberal.org.au/how-to-vote<br />Green https://greens.org.au/htv<br />ALP ?????????????Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-44604017484142755552016-06-16T22:48:37.213+10:002016-06-16T22:48:37.213+10:00They have no formal role in the new system so ther...They have no formal role in the new system so there is no reason for the AEC to publish them. There is nothing to stop a party issuing one card one day then another the next, or even the situation in Melbourne Ports where the candidate is handing out a card that his party doesn't endorse.<br /><br />It is common for parties to display how-to-vote cards on their website. The Liberals have theirs up (searchable by postcode), as do NXT; I can't find Labors or the Greens'.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-62611481724135786922016-06-16T22:04:00.054+10:002016-06-16T22:04:00.054+10:00Hi Kevin,
Are official party preferences published...Hi Kevin,<br />Are official party preferences published anywhere?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13618186828610452086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-40973334749603672552016-06-14T00:02:54.920+10:002016-06-14T00:02:54.920+10:00Ya, this might just be a seat after the election w...Ya, this might just be a seat after the election which leads to numerous articles on tactical votingUnachimbahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04873952842828774048noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-55024984663655065732016-06-13T23:58:39.547+10:002016-06-13T23:58:39.547+10:00Under the old system the Greens sometimes threaten...Under the old system the Greens sometimes threatened to bump off the Coalition for the second ACT Senate position but under the new system this is very much harder because the artificial preference flows that made it possible no longer exist. If the Coalition polls a primary vote in the low 30s or above, or can even get to 33 points with preferences from minor party voters putting them above Labor and the Greens, then they will win their seat no matter what and there is nothing anybody else can do about that. <br /><br />On the assumption that the Coalition vote might someday crash to well below that level, the optimal strategy for Labor and the Greens is to both be ahead of the Coalition when someone is excluded, and for neither party to have a big surplus on primaries. This means that tactical voters who are happy for either Labor or the Greens to win (and could not care less which) would probably most effectively vote for the Greens first and Labor second, to try to get the two left parties closer together and reduce the loss of votes on redistribution of the ALP surplus. <br /><br />It's not a big deal in either territory since the chance of the 1-1 major party split being changed any time soon seems very low.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-59744743459293972842016-06-13T23:39:48.528+10:002016-06-13T23:39:48.528+10:00Hi, I'm in a Territory where the two Senators ...Hi, I'm in a Territory where the two Senators have been ALP and LIB. I want to do the best with my vote to get a Green elected. There are 10 party groups and two ungrouped candidates. For each party there are 2 candidates. What is the best strategy to make sure my vote has the most impact in achieving my preferred outcome which is one ALP and one Green SenatorMaking My Vote Counthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16995408565662397891noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-86554647557595585122016-06-13T19:14:02.058+10:002016-06-13T19:14:02.058+10:00This thread is really about Senate voting includin...This thread is really about Senate voting including tactical voting, but as concerns Reps voting, you're quite correct. The Labor voter who just wants to get rid of the Liberal should tactically vote 1 NXT in the hope that Labor are excluded first, because Labor preferences will more reliably elect NXT than the other way around (unless Labor refuses to preference NXT, perhaps). <br /><br />Coalition voters in seats that NXT can win but Labor is not at all competitive in might try to counter this by voting 1 Labor 2 Coalition.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-9588340890413987292016-06-13T17:41:09.835+10:002016-06-13T17:41:09.835+10:00In the case of an SA seat where Labor has no reali...In the case of an SA seat where Labor has no realistic chance of winning, for example Pyne's seat, the optimal strategy for seeing the removal of the Liberal candidate would be to vote 1 NXT, 2 Labor. That way, the Labor elector's vote passes to NXT and contributes to the demise of the Liberal candidate. The logic behind this tactic is that only a proportion of Labor voters would do that, but enough to raise the NXT primary above the Labor primary. On the other hand, if all Labor voters voted 1 Labor, 2 NXT, Labor would finish above NXT on primaries, and the Liberal candidate would be returned. Please comment.dedalushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11569022378786181339noreply@blogger.com