tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post7443080315923551038..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Tasmania 2018: More Internal Polling GamesKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-5166048695842914152018-02-20T21:47:46.379+11:002018-02-20T21:47:46.379+11:00This kind of exercise is very tricky. There are a...This kind of exercise is very tricky. There are a few things that are important to keep in mind when looking at election odds as a sign of what the markets "think":<br /><br />1. Longshot bias. The bookie's "rake" isn't evenly distributed. Events at longer odds happen less often even relative to those odds than events at short odds. The election could be run in 10,000 parallel universes and the Greens would not win two seats in Braddon in any of them, yet it is offered at only 12.00, implying that it could actually happen. One adjustment I've seen used is to cull everything at double figures but that doesn't completely solve the problem as longshot bias can also occur in at least the high single figures too. <br /><br />2. Non-independent probabilities. So, for instance, the Liberal chance of winning three in Lyons and Franklin are supposedly 25% and 28%. However if the Liberals do win three in either of these, then that suggests their state vote is at the high end of expectations, which increases their chance of not only winning the other one, but also winning in both Bass and Braddon. (On the other hand if they don't win three in Lyons then that may well mean they're failing somewhere else.) I don't know if this actually makes a big difference in this case, but one of the first bookmakers to field on Australian federal elections didn't realise this problem and was taken to the cleaners by punters on multiplying multi-bets on different seats. Every federal election I see a nonsense model where someone runs Monte Carlos of all the individual seat probabilities and concludes that one side has a 100% chance and the other side has 0%. In fact, if there is a polling error in one direction or another, or a campaign event that causes a swing, then that affects the chances across multiple seats at once.<br /><br />Also, specific to this election:<br /><br />1. These individual seat odds would have a shallow money pool - they wouldn't be taking many bets on them, and for small amounts of money at that. They would mostly reflect the intuition of a single bookmaker rather than the opinion of a market of (hopefully) informed punters. Sportsbet isn't a totaliser and has stated that this is how it does its odds - they have a modeller set them, and every now and then that person looks at the money coming in and considers whether to make changes.<br /><br />2. They don't have any odds on JLN, but that doesn't necessarily mean they don't think JLN can win any seats. (That would increase the chance of a hung parliament somewhat, whereas the point about probabilities not being independent reduces it.) <br /><br />I'll be very interested to see how those odds go. As I mentioned on my main guide page, bookies odds have a poor record in Tasmanian elections. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-52958575872416099952018-02-20T20:10:35.611+11:002018-02-20T20:10:35.611+11:00Kevin
In the absence of EMRS polls I had a go at t...Kevin<br />In the absence of EMRS polls I had a go at trying to interpret what the Sportsbet.com markets are saying. I don't think Sportbet.com odds are much different to the odds implied by the Nov 17 EMRS poll. I posted a blog at http://tasfintalk.blogspot.com.au/2018/02/election-odds.html#more<br />tasfintalkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04012719835733649162noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-50296849858256311042018-02-19T12:46:39.770+11:002018-02-19T12:46:39.770+11:00We are on the same bus and have the same name but ...We are on the same bus and have the same name but there are a few of us about! He's the good looking one.David Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03837571579704014635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-64778548284815911732018-02-19T10:55:13.762+11:002018-02-19T10:55:13.762+11:00Alas...I have been in Tasmania for almost 50 years...Alas...I have been in Tasmania for almost 50 years now and ...the tenor of debate and political comments has not improved...in fact, it seems less. More than ever the parties appear to worry about their personal futures and how they will be re-elected or elected. Those who run for offices and have the best chance seem to be stacked by those who already are working in some pollies' office with the result of, The same old things!. I have even quit watching Insiders because of the numbing sameness of it all. We need some brave leaders...preferably, females.Dr Buck Emberghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08297654541973003614noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-13434160898133407942018-02-19T02:13:57.750+11:002018-02-19T02:13:57.750+11:00On the Labor Bus David? http://www.themercury.com....On the Labor Bus David? http://www.themercury.com.au/news/opinion/blair-richards-unloved-seats-ticket-to-ride/news-story/b41e3e12cd78e7a0e758373f869389e2TassieAllStarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17242002707413422460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-62390576653123442672018-02-18T13:13:41.105+11:002018-02-18T13:13:41.105+11:00Observation - this election appears to be a refere...Observation - this election appears to be a referendum on Pokies and the Libs are suffering massively. In my part of the Lyons electorate, we have seen a Labor Federal Member, and an ALP upper house member get both up against incumbent Liberals in the last 2 trips to the ballot box. The Libs are travelling badly on all issues in this part of the state and should be very grateful that the Hare Clark system buffers them against wipe-outs. David Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03837571579704014635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-4066576933182969342018-02-13T14:47:41.194+11:002018-02-13T14:47:41.194+11:00I expect Labor's door knocking is outdoing the...I expect Labor's door knocking is outdoing the Liberals by a similar margin. TV advertising is not the force it was because of disaggregated media and home entertainment and a similar barrage didn't save the Reps seats at the federal election. All the same it seems to say something about which side has money to burn, and the question being asked is where some of that is coming from.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-71725674125336350332018-02-13T14:32:27.689+11:002018-02-13T14:32:27.689+11:00Kevin what do you make of the disparity in the amo...Kevin what do you make of the disparity in the amount of advertising between Labor and Liberal? Liberal party ads seem to outnumber Labor by 5 to 1 on TV.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10255433831306698402noreply@blogger.com