tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post7316816754501023057..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Expected Scott Bacon RecountKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-48953537389238565142019-09-13T21:40:50.916+10:002019-09-13T21:40:50.916+10:00Abroad the main methods for filling Hare-Clark/STV...Abroad the main methods for filling Hare-Clark/STV vacancies are:<br /><br />* A by-election of the entire constituency<br />* Co-option of the outgoing member's party's nominee<br />* Co-option of a name from a list of designated successor replacements supplied by the elected member as a candidate<br /><br />Off the top of my head by-elections are used for the Republic of Ireland's Dáil (lower house) and the university seats in the Seanad (upper house). The Seanad Vocation Panel members are normally elected by an electorate of members of the incoming Dáil, the outgoing Seanad and members of local government. By-elections see the electorate restricted to the current Dáil and Seanad members. Co-option is used for local government and, I think, the European Union Parliament (each EU member state determines its own voting system for that).<br /><br />Scottish local government uses by-elections.<br /><br />Northern Ireland uses co-option for the Assembly, the European Parliament and local government with the designated successor method for independents and, if none are available, a by-election for local government.<br /><br />(There's been one by-election in nine years, for a local government seat where the sitting Independent died and all on the designated list declined.)<br /><br />I think Malta uses co-option for its parliament.<br /><br />All have benefits and drawbacks. By-elections can distort the proportionality of a constituency's representation, with small parties losing seats mid-term. Northern Ireland's political structures build the community divide into the system so midterm variations can significantly distort things (and there are those who argue that casual elections could be politically damaging at key moments, a hangover from the 1970s attempt at power sharing). Co-options can preserve the party balance but bring all the risks of high member turnover, party patronage, lack of voter accountability and can also encourage parties strategically arranging resignations and co-options to bring forward new candidates so they can fight a first election as an incumbent. Tim Roll-Pickeringhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12589024696145675963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-84802666368057844302019-09-13T11:11:17.755+10:002019-09-13T11:11:17.755+10:00Haros lost preselection and ran as an indie at the...Haros lost preselection and ran as an indie at the 1986 election. Did he actually sit as an indie in the parliament though? I haven't yet found evidence that he did, although he may have done. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-16192340672689249932019-09-13T07:32:52.183+10:002019-09-13T07:32:52.183+10:00Hi Kevin, in the list of defections, what about Ga...Hi Kevin, in the list of defections, what about Gabriel Haros (1986)?Geoffreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02047145278279336626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-45361350677537853412019-08-26T13:12:59.418+10:002019-08-26T13:12:59.418+10:00In this case the only votes that are included are ...In this case the only votes that are included are those that were 1 for Scott Bacon, because he got a quota. All the 1 Bacon votes are included in the recount, whether they ended up with an elected candidate, with the last unelected candidate (Ogilvie), or with exhaust. <br /><br />The main theory behind the system is that if the departing MP's votes are used to choose the departing MP's replacement then that should provide the closest thing to like-for-like replacement of the MP who has left the parliament.<br /><br />One alternative is to recount the whole election with the departing candidate's votes re-allocated to others. This is what is done with Senate disqualifications. For retirements it has a few problems though: 1. in close cases it may elect a replacement from a different party, which might discourage an MP from quitting in a case where they really should quit. 2. in some cases it could "unelect" one of the other MPs who was originally elected and 3. it is a lot more work and takes longer.<br /><br />The current system is better than recounting the whole election for those reasons, but it is not perfect. In cases where the retiring candidate is elected partway through the preference throw (not the case with Bacon) there can be an advantage for candidates excluded early in the original count over those who were excluded late.<br /><br />State PR houses that do not use Hare-Clark use the same casual vacancy method as the Senate (in effect appointment by the party); ACT which uses Hare-Clark uses the same vacancy method as Tasmania. <br /><br />Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-36876337324844237252019-08-26T12:27:53.498+10:002019-08-26T12:27:53.498+10:00Hi Kevin, do you have an explanation or view on th...Hi Kevin, do you have an explanation or view on the design/policy of this recount system? Why do the votes of electors who got a preferred candidate elected at the last election (Haddad, O'Connor, Archer, Hickey) get a second go, while the votes of electors left in the count with no candidate elected get left out? Are their different systems in different jurisdictions? And are some systems better than others for a proportional outcome? ThanksReg Joneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05733632807950240325noreply@blogger.com